Did some light reading today...

CFR is only really accurate once this has run it's course, and early deaths from the elderly and immunocompromised spike the CFR. Preventing the spread to those most at risk would lower the CFR. Your estimated death toll makes the assumption people perfectly capable of recovering will be among the dead contributing to a high CFR. If I'm understanding it right anyway.

Not to downplay the disease but your assumptions seem skewed.

I screwed it up? I'm not doubting you but how?

>early deaths from the elderly and immunocompromised spike the CFR
OK I see this, but China's got the most data here, since they're the first (80,000 or 110,000). They've been in this for 3 months now. Death is taking about 3 weeks, so they've been through a number of 3 week cycles now, of new infections and deaths. As such, I believe that CFR is probably pretty accurate.

That's horseshit math. It's an epidemic, spreading through community transmission. We can expect exponential growth where it's not contained.

The 1918 flu affected an estimated 27% of the world's population, and there are 7.7 billion people today. If coronavirus is comparable, we might see more than 2 billion people affected, and a 3.4% CFR would suggest about 70 million dead.

>rent free in your head
sad

Something about exponential increase, in dealing with virus spread, a similar number of cases 3 months after while those that are infected are spreading it as well as new people getting it, is not good math. I'd say multiply it by at least 2. Like if 4 people got it, the spread it to 4 more, you'd have 8 and of the last 4 spread it to 4 more each, that's 16, those 16 spread to 4 more, that's 64 etc.

I get that. I'm not "expecting" anything. You expect exponential growth but what has happened in Asia is a much better barometer than what you "expect"

You can't just use (recovered+dead)/dead, because the people who get tested and treated are usually the ones with bad symptoms. As far as we know, many people will literally just get a cold or have no symptoms at all. That's why letality will probably be lower than your 5.89.

Anyway, this WILL kill millions, not because it is so terribly deadly but because it spreads like crazy. If this infects ~60% of the world's population (theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population) and "just" kills 1%, that's still more than 46 million casualties.

Cool, bye boomers!

why won't my fucking school shut down
my sister is immunocompromised and my parents smoked for the past 40 years. If they get it I'm genuinely worried.
Andy Hamilton can suck my tranny cock