Did some light reading today, and boy do I think the difference between government actions vs words about coronachan make more sense. Before I start, remember that the “official” Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) for this virus is 3.4%
That number comes from dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. However, the CFR is supposed to come from dividing the total number of deaths by the number of total number of recoveries. This makes more sense, because you don't know what will be the outcome of those still suffering from the illness. With the current numbers for deaths/(recoveries+deaths) put into that formula, we get ~5.89% case fatality rate.
There is a rating of pandemics by the CDC called the Pandemic Severity Index (PSI), that rates pandemics (or any epidemic) from 1 (2.0% CFR). The CDC considers only the most sever to fit in the category 5 criteria, such as the Spanish Flu. The Spanish Flu had a CFR of ~2.0%.
If the “it’s just a flu” crowd is right at 2%, its just the Spanish Flu.
If the WHO is right at 3.4%, it’s almost twice the Spanish Flu.
If the correct usage of the CFR formula is correct, we’re half way to Legionnaires' disease.
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
coronavirus-map.com
Run the numbers for yourself. Then, ask yourself why people are saying “no big deal” while shutting down events and quarantining to such an extreme degree.
Did some light reading today...
Other urls found in this thread:
theguardian.com
worldometers.info
sciencedaily.com
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
twitter.com
So there's 109,856 cases right now, but you're saying that number's not relevant.
So far there are 60,969 confirmed recoveries and 3803 confirmed deaths. That's a CFR of 6.23%
So if we apply that CFR to the total cases of 109,856, we can expect that 6844 of 109,856 will die.
Also, since we're about 3 months into this epidemic and we expect it to go another 4 months (China is just starting to plateau in new cases now). That will be a final total number of cases os 247,146 and at the CFR of 6.23% that will be 15399 total deaths by the time this thing is over.
Yeat, you're right, some people will die. And the slower it's spread, the higher are chances to get vaccination ready
How did you get 247146. That sounds suspiciously specific. And low.
Vaccines are at least one year out, and that's assuming they can find a candidate in a few months. Clinical trials alone are a year.
May / June is going to be a total shit show.
I expect an essentially full lock down of the majority of the planet mid to late april. It's simply too contagious to do anything else. Image something that spreads 2-5 more easily than the flu or a common cold that has a 5% change to kill you. Thats what we've got here.
>247146
109,856 (this 3 months) + 109,856 (next 3 months) + 27464 (1 more month, because China isn't done yet)
Trump gets corona?
>dies
>profit?
>And low.
I'm not trying to make it high or low, just going by the exact numbers we have right now. It's just a math experiment I suppose. FYI There have been 17 new reported cases since I made that post above...
Oh. I see. It doesn't work that way.
CFR is only really accurate once this has run it's course, and early deaths from the elderly and immunocompromised spike the CFR. Preventing the spread to those most at risk would lower the CFR. Your estimated death toll makes the assumption people perfectly capable of recovering will be among the dead contributing to a high CFR. If I'm understanding it right anyway.
Not to downplay the disease but your assumptions seem skewed.
I screwed it up? I'm not doubting you but how?
>early deaths from the elderly and immunocompromised spike the CFR
OK I see this, but China's got the most data here, since they're the first (80,000 or 110,000). They've been in this for 3 months now. Death is taking about 3 weeks, so they've been through a number of 3 week cycles now, of new infections and deaths. As such, I believe that CFR is probably pretty accurate.
That's horseshit math. It's an epidemic, spreading through community transmission. We can expect exponential growth where it's not contained.
The 1918 flu affected an estimated 27% of the world's population, and there are 7.7 billion people today. If coronavirus is comparable, we might see more than 2 billion people affected, and a 3.4% CFR would suggest about 70 million dead.
>rent free in your head
sad
Something about exponential increase, in dealing with virus spread, a similar number of cases 3 months after while those that are infected are spreading it as well as new people getting it, is not good math. I'd say multiply it by at least 2. Like if 4 people got it, the spread it to 4 more, you'd have 8 and of the last 4 spread it to 4 more each, that's 16, those 16 spread to 4 more, that's 64 etc.
I get that. I'm not "expecting" anything. You expect exponential growth but what has happened in Asia is a much better barometer than what you "expect"
You can't just use (recovered+dead)/dead, because the people who get tested and treated are usually the ones with bad symptoms. As far as we know, many people will literally just get a cold or have no symptoms at all. That's why letality will probably be lower than your 5.89.
Anyway, this WILL kill millions, not because it is so terribly deadly but because it spreads like crazy. If this infects ~60% of the world's population (theguardian.com
Cool, bye boomers!
why won't my fucking school shut down
my sister is immunocompromised and my parents smoked for the past 40 years. If they get it I'm genuinely worried.
Andy Hamilton can suck my tranny cock
From the site you linked China would be sitting at about 2% CFR and a 71% rate of recovery so far. If the sick and elderly not exposed remained that way, even if the spread continued the CFR should drop long term and we'd probably see rate of recovery increase. Quarantine, travel restrictions and cleanliness will go a long way.
Because they're incompetent and afraid of the economic consequences. But if they don't slow it down effectively, this will spread fast like wildfire. And if everyone is sick at the same time, the economy will get hit even harder. They're doing nothing and hope that it will somehow will be better than expected. It won't be.
you made two mistakes. the death rate is no calculated by currently infected instead in a set time frame where everyone infected is expected to be either recovered or dead (14 day window).
also WHO estimates a 0.91% death rate because the 3% number is only on reported cases. people without symptoms or very mild symptoms don't present to docs and so don't get tested.
if you test everyone with a cough you can look at the numbers from South Korea. they quite literally test everyone, that's why the numbers are so high.
but 0.9% is still 10 times higher than the flu and it's a lot more transmissible. in China everyone infected infected another 2.2 people in January, likely in the one to two day period that you spew the virus without having symptoms.
Boooooorrrring! What a triggered faggot this OP is.
Yeah, wrong. Warmer months see a drastic reduction in disease spread such as these...unless you are an aids ridden faggot.
Is there a little or no symptoms possibility? I've been feeling shit over the weekend, headache and possible slight temperature yesterday, much better now, going to work tomorrow.. A random 48 hour bug or covid? Should I get tested?
>Is there a little or no symptoms possibility?
yes
>Should I get tested?
depends on where you live. are you close to an infection center?
It is absolutely possible. The younger you are the more likely mild to no symptoms are. The most common symptoms are fever, dry cough, and trouble breathing, though. Depending on your country, they will probably not test you for slight temperature and headache.
there is only one important part about COV-19
its a freaking boomer killer.
with boomers dying like 3%+ on it and anyone fresher than these idiots 0.2%
also trump will die from it
>even if the spread continued the CFR should drop long term and we'd probably see rate of recovery increase. Quarantine, travel restrictions and cleanliness will go a long way.
I totally agree with this part. But I'm not OP, I'm the first post, maybe I should've made that clearer.
No. 1 certified case in the county. But I have the feeling that there is a lot of unseen transmission happening in the background. I just looked up the incubation period and the WHO are saying anything between 1 and 14 days with a mean of 5. Look where Italy was 5 days ago.
Am I fucked as a 52yo smoker? Otherwise good health?
That's why I said without containment, but you're missing some key factors. China has serious medical care, the government took extraordinary and draconian measures, and the population reacted obediently.
In Western individualistic countries, it's harder to impose those kinds of controls, especially preemptively, so we're seeing community spread in countries like the US and UK, and no signs they're being contained or even identified. By the time there's a strong reaction, we we're probably looking at a significant portion of the population infected.
And it's worse in Iran, or places like Africa or South America. Which do not have the medical infrastructure to handle it, and where it's going to spread like wildfire.
Yes.
>also trump will die from it
you faggots can't help making everything about trump, can you?
>containment
good joke. Italy just took south korea spot. we are fucking incapable to have any preventive measures
And what if I were to quit today and didn't get sick for 4 weels?
10% speculation. And BAD speculation at that. No expert has said that SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 is seasonal. Because it is likely NOT seasonal. In fact it's nearest genetic equivalent is SARS-CoV(-1) which went from November to July. Straight through winter, through spring and into SUMMER. So take your counter-intuitive speculation somewhere else, summer.
Not necessarily, but it will kill you way more likely than the rest of the zoomers here. Smoking will of lower your chances, of course.
chinese numbers will be italian numbers in 3 weeks, us numbers in 6 and so on
this will take another year to fully go round
dry cough is the biggest unique characteristic, it's hard to tell from the flu
These are my favorite posts on Yas Forums. Not the REKT, not the shitposting, not the high quality porn, not the YLYL. Just good, uncensored, free debate.
Love it. Keep doing what you guys are doing.
Iran is worse, look at the number of senior government officials with the disease. They're just lying about the real numbers.
Well every cloud has a silver lining. Let's see the fat fuck lie his way out of this one.
Shut up faggot
Iran is crippled by US sanctions. This will hit developed Western countries hard, but it will absolutely devastate countries like Iran.
Africa is fucked.
It will have blown over by June, for a while even
so in theory we need a high infection rate for R0 being below 1 due to immunity. to reach that point we are currently like 0.002% through
this is horrible
I'm thinking July or August we'll have seen the whole cycle end.
Fuck your sister if she catches it, she’s a goner anyways
Guys, don't forget: Severe cases happen in every age group. COVID SARS leaves you with damaged lungs and not everyone who contracted SARS back then recovered.
the immune system will attack healthy cells as well and in some extreme cases even in other organs than the lungs.
so it's really not like a flu. it can cripple you for life, no matter the age, unless you're a child.
wash you hands, properly, for 20-seconds, often. every time before and after eating and when you come come. don't touch your face unless thoroughly washed.
washing is better than disinfecting. you need at lest 60% alcohol to kill the virus but viruses often survive in mucus bubbles that protect them from the disinfectant.
soap just washes them away.
so please stay safe!
we don't know on long term lung damage yet. the paper is based on one dead guys autopsy
which means shit as it was a heavy smoker
but its likely to be permanent damage like other viral infections
Detergents in soap actually destroy the virus in the same way that it dries out and fucks up your hands.
Seen at Costco today, people eating $0.99 hot dogs and licking their fingers. Dont assume everybody is smart enough to practice prophylaxis.
i am sneezing. had headdaches, but no fever, should i go to work and infect my coworkers?
its a godsend cure
Pic related from
worldometers.info
So,here's this tidbit.20 days ago I was at Dallas/ Fort Worth Internatty airport on a business trip.You have to ride a tram to get from terminal to terminal. The whole place was crawling with Asians,many with masks. One Chinky Chinaman w/out a mask hacked sputum oh my back on the tram thingy.Should I worry much?
And you think the US is always the first to get the joke? In Chicago there is a special needs teacher who got off the Diamnod Princess in Mexico and didn't have the brain cells to self quarantine and/or report. She's responsible for feeding these kids. Criminal in my eyes.
Besides the US's overconfidence and botched CDC testing, people are just plain fucking stupid. We are doomed. Social security will be funded for an extra decade. Fuck Bernie.
Can confirm, my hands are getting fucked.
no, average symptoms is 6 days. max 14 days. if you dont have anything yet you are fine, for now
>Should I worry much?
Worrying won't help. Make arrangements at your local funeral home and livestream it.
And these:
>implying chink healthcare is equal to Western healthcare
The reason we quarantine events now is to stop chink numbers from happening in the first place, not because it's actually a bad virus
Prevention > fixing
Real death toll is much lower. If this was like flu it would have 100million patients by now.
And 14% of currently infected people are in a serious or critical condition.
Personally I don't care. I'm more interested in the fact that this virus has a possibility of evolving and becoming extremely deadly. Making that 6% death chance turn into 10 or 15 percent and continue rising. It would be cool to actually be alive during the possible end of life on earth. I mean in the grand scheme of things none of our lives matter much to the universe. I don't understand why people are so afraid of this. There's literally nothing we can do unless you're a medical professional of course. So why worry? You die you die. Not like any of you Yas Forumstards were going to get far anyway.
Source?
it's pretty much confirmed at this point.
sciencedaily.com
it's not happening to everyone, but there is a risk.
>Seen at Costco today, people eating $0.99 hot dogs and licking their fingers. Dont assume everybody is smart enough to practice prophylaxis.
I don't care about normies, I care about you. that's why I wanted to remind you. please stay safe.
>Should I worry much?
if you really had something it'd be over by now.
my hands are fine. I use re-moisturizing liquid soap and have washed my hand about 12-15 times in a workday for the last week
it IS a bad virus and playing it down won't help anyone.
every day you don't get infected and spread the virus is one more day closer to a cure.
you literally safe lives if you don't contract the virus and spread as little as possible.
so yes, prevent as long as possible so a good fix is available before we're all hospitalized at the same time...
Don't know how accurate this is OP but this might help you, it's being passed around on Twitcher, a supposed live, up to date statistics of Coronavirus
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
Edgy teen nihilist on Yas Forums. A pure, unadulterated cliche. Screencap it, tweet it, bottle it, sell it, the world may never see its like again.
Most people wont even notice they have it. Stop beeing retarded. Its not new pig flu.
>Prevention > fixing
I completely agree but there's 502 cases in the US now, and pretty much in every other country too. We probably had zero chance of keeping this thing out of the US. However, had we begun preparing for this months ago - and taking it seriously - like the CDC and WHO were recommending then we wouldn't be in this bad spot we're in now. With no test kits and people self-quarantining all over the place with no assistance, it's not only embarrassing it's deadly.
>I don't care about normies, I care about you. that's why I wanted to remind you. please stay safe.
the problem with normies and people saying this is just a flu
if one of them becomes a spreader he will cause death for people he infects. i would like to have this on the level of murder but we can't detect infection ways that detailed yet
YES YOU FUCKING anti-vax guys are murderers too
Better graphics than the one I posted here but they seem to be a count of a few behind, not that it matters much.