Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
Europe could be close to herd immunity from coronavirus already, with far more people infected than previously thought, according to a study in Germany.
Scientists studying Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's first big outbreak dubbed the 'German Wuhan', discovered that as many as 15 per cent of people may have already been infected with the virus and acquired immunity.
They said yesterday that they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms of coronavirus, boosting hopes that the spread is slowing.
If 15 per cent of people do have antibodies, then Germany's actual death rate could be as low as 0.37 per cent.
>all symptoms of Wuhan Flu synonymous with other coronaviruses, such as actual flu and the various common colds >HOLY SHIT GUYS PEOPLE SAID THEY SUFFERED FROM THE SAME SYMPTOMS WE NEED TO JACK THE NUMBERS UP SO PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE WE JUST TOOK ALL THEIR RIGHTS AWAY how is anyone actually falling for this bullshit?
the problem with the chinese flu is not mortality but the very high contagious rate, if you let the virus spread without any measures it will overrwhelm health services and then it will become a huge problem and the mortality will go up
again the mortality is not that high as other virus but the contagious capability is super high.
Jaxon Adams
A million cases in Lombardy, out of ten million inhabitants, this could be the order of magnitude of the epidemic in our region, out of a total of 5 million Italians infected. "The cases of Covid-19 in Lombardy, and in Italy in general, are at least 10, but probably 100 times higher" than those of the official bulletins that "refer mainly to severe patients who came to the attention of hospitals". These are the results of a Doxa investigation coordinated by the group of Carlo La Vecchia and Eva Negri, the epidemiologists of the State University which estimates "the undeclared" of the coronavirus epidemic on the national territory between 27 and 30 March.
According to official data, there were 105,792 cases and 12,442 deaths nationwide at the end of March, and 43,208 cases and 7,199 regional deaths. The real figures are however uncertain: the cases recorded in Italy essentially include hospital admissions, plus a limited number of positive subjects for swabs performed in a non-systematic way. To estimate the number of possible cases, a series of questions about Covid-19 related symptoms (such as fever, headache, cold, cough, gastrointestinal complaints) were included. The survey is based on a sample of 1,000 individuals, representative of the general Italian population between 18 and 85 years in terms of sex, age, geographical area and socio-economic conditions. Of these, 169 were residents of Lombardy. The data, collected using the CAWI method (computer assisted web interviews), refer to questions asked to citizens regarding their conditions in the three weeks preceding the survey.
In order to understand how the coronavirus spreads, scientists have been looking to Heinsberg for weeks. In the district in North Rhine-Westphalia, more people have tested positive for the pathogen than in almost any other region in Germany. Now, first interim results of a representative study for the community of Gangelt show that probably 15 percent of the population there have already experienced an infection with the virus and are now immune. Based on the tests already available, this figure had previously only been estimated at five percent.
According to Hendrik Streeck, the head of the study, the initial results suggest that the strict regulations for containing the epidemic could be gradually relaxed, provided that hygiene measures continue to be observed.
Streeck is currently investigating on behalf of the NRW state government how the corona virus has spread in the particularly affected Heinsberg district. His team is mainly working in the community of Gangelt. From there, the virus had spread rapidly after a carnival meeting in mid-February. The preliminary results are based on a first sample of 500 people, which are representative for the region.
The most important results at a glance:
Two per cent of those examined were found to be actively infected with the virus by a throat swab.
Antibodies against the virus were detected in the blood of 14 percent of the people examined. According to initial estimates, they are likely to be immune for the next 6 to 18 months. This means that they cannot become infected or pass on the virus. This value is important in order to estimate the spread of the virus. Virologists assume that the epidemic will weaken once about 60 percent of the population has been infected. However, the figures from Heinsberg cannot be transferred to the whole of Germany because more people in the community tested positive for the coronavirus than in the rest of Germany.
Jonathan Bell
About 0.37 per cent of the people in Gangelt in whom the virus was detected died. The mortality rate there is thus five times lower than in the rest of Germany. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the rate for the whole of Germany is currently 1.98 percent. According to the researchers, the fact that apparently fewer people die in Gangelt as a result of corona infection is probably due to the fact that a particularly large number of people were tested there. Among them are also many who hardly show any symptoms and often remain undetected. The figures suggest that the corona virus might be less lethal than feared. However, it is still too early for a reliable projection.
According to the researchers, the figures suggest that the lockdown was the right decision to contain the number of infections. "Heinsberg has slipped past a huge catastrophe," said the district administrator of the district, Stephan Pusch.
Because most people were "so active and disciplined", it was now possible to enter a "phase two", Streeck said. However, it is important that hygienic behaviour continues to be observed and that risk groups are protected to the maximum extent possible. Whether and which measures should be relaxed, however, would have to be decided by politicians.
"Dare the flexible entry”
Even before the announcement of the interim results, NRW Minister President Armin Laschet had brought possible loosening into play and indicated criteria. "Can the rules for the right distance be adhered to and are the right protective measures in place? If that is the case, one can dare to take the flexible approach", the CDU politician told the "Handelsblatt. "We must protect people more specifically than by blanket closures."
Mason Sanchez
Thought to have had coverit in january. Had a aching lung, felt like a broken rib. Runny nose, body and headache and a very mild cough... Got antibody tested this week with negativ result...
Jayden Stewart
How does anyone believe this? Have you ever seen the army moving corpses in Italy during the flu season, or morgues running out of space? This happened with severe restrictions. What would it have been like without?
Aiden Diaz
Isn't the assumtion that once infected people gain significant immunity untested? Not a doctor, but have heard some doctors who have said pulmonary tract infections (like common cold) often do not create lasting immunity.
Camden Clark
I say this thinking I already had this thing a little over a month ago. Still taking precautions.
John Gutierrez
I'm also not a doctor but aren't there 350 000 recovered cases by now? seeing headlines 51 people reinfected would there not be more? it could mean a lot of things: false tests, fearmongering maybe a couple of them did get reinfected but its a very small number.
Also we already know how coronaviruses work, we know how previous viruses work, how our immune systems work many of these point to there being some immunity. they're doing antibody tests and people have them more than previously tought
just my opinion
Isaac Ortiz
Reminder that the hospital crisis in Lombardy that is happening right now is actually yearly ruotine during flu season and nurses are being instructed by the doctors to shut the hell up about this year not being any different.
Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States is currently targeted to individuals whose symptoms and/or jobs place them at a high presumed risk of infection. An open question is, what is the share of infections that are undetected under current testing guidelines? To answer this question, we turn to COVID-19 testing data from Iceland. The criteria for testing within the Icelandic medical system, processed by the National University Hospital of Iceland (NUHI), have also been targeted at high-risk individuals, but additionally most Icelanders qualify for voluntary testing through the biopharmaceutical company deCODE genetics. We use results from Iceland’s two testing programs to estimate the share of infections that are undetected under standard (NUHI) testing guidelines. Because of complications in the deCODE testing regime, it is not possible to estimate a single value for this this undetected rate; however, a range can be estimated. Our primary estimates for the fraction of infections that are undetected range from 88.7% to 93.6%.
John Green
>Germany's actual death rate could be as low as 0.37 per cent. If we need 80% to be infected to get herd immunity, and 0.37% of the infected die, this would mean final death toll of ~246 thousand dead in Germany. For US, it would be about 977 thousand dead. That's more than US Civil War (620 thousand).
Logan Thomas
Who the fuck wrote this article? If 15% of europeans already have it, that means the R0 is higher than expected, therefore herd immunity would kick in around 70 to 80% if not worse. We're nowhere near herd immunity, except maybe Bergamo or Brescia
Easton Campbell
>a study >posts no link
People with antibodies are the ones infected you retarded monkey subhuman.
Noah Lopez
our real number of deaths could be as high 30000 or 55000. This is a very reasonable number.
however we dont have a fucking idea, at all, about the real number of positives. It could be from half a million to seven million and up. The official number is 157000 cases but nobody believes that.
So it depends a lot
Lincoln Hall
wait for the south amerikas to catch up and we'll find out
Aaron Evans
total population of america during the civil war: 31,5mil total population 2019. est: 328mil
also the more time passes we will get better knowledge of this virus and how to deal with it. antivirals might be developed before bill chips us all in 2 years
Christopher Howard
People who are immune don't have antibodies against corona virus, they defeated the virus so quickly that you can't trace antibodies. Once virus is deep inside your body and you are close to death bed, then you will have the most antibodies. If you vaccinate somebody then that somebody will develop antibodies, but doesn't means he will defeat the illness.
Yes, virus enters into heart and kills people with heart problems. Are you a retard? Virus enters into your brains and ruins your brains, people with brain problems die. Is that immunity? No. Is that conspiracy? No.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2 >Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)[5] is an enzyme attached to the outer surface (cell membranes) of cells in the lungs, arteries, heart, kidney, and intestines. >As a transmembrane protein, ACE2 serves as the main entry point into cells for some coronaviruses, including HCoV-NL63;[5] SARS-CoV (the virus that causes SARS);[19][20][21] and SARS-CoV-2[22] (the virus that causes COVID-19).
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2667944/ >The distribution of ACE2 in the brain was at first controversial as original reports failed to identify the carboxypeptidase in the CNS (Donoghue et al. 2000; Tipnis et al. 2000). Later, low levels of ACE2 mRNA were shown in the human brain using quantitative real-time RT-PCR
With healthy people it will just take longer to damage your organs. Virus will re-appear multiple times and every time take a chuck from you. That's how widespread looks like, then you some day fall down to the ground face first after your defeated the virus 2 times before.
>a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University. Quindi un ennesimo coglione che legge i numeri ed incute timore allaggente
Ian Roberts
>Yes, virus enters into heart and kills people with heart problems Soon you'll be telling me it causes brain tumours. Then you'll be telling me it causes car crashes.
Camden Baker
I literally proven that it causes brain damage. Literally one sentence, read it moron.
Jason James
You are believing that what you see and hear on 4kike is anything but shills and kikes. Most people on the ground and out side major cities where the average person is braindead arent falling for this bullshit. Warning to all lurkers and real people here arm up. We are going to be going to war. This is it. They will keep this bullshit up until we do something.
Jack Morales
>Muh 5 gorillion Jewish media at its finest.
Parker Myers
Shills working overtime. We need to start adopting a program of ignoring them and posting actual facts about this bullshit. There is no epidemic this is a clear power grab.
Lucas Murphy
You haven't provided a single fact in your life stupid stock moron.
Lincoln Peterson
That's the most stupid "study" ever. Basically it implies that if you got any of the symptmos that are common with corona, you prolly got corona and you didnt know.
Zachary Kelly
are you retarded? almost no one shows any symptoms and if they do its because they already had other problems that weakened them. those are the same people who would die of the flu. no net increase in hospitalization.
Connor Baker
Fuck off non country. Your opinion doesnt matter. You are a faggot.
Yes goyim! Just get herd immunity to this chinese bioweapon. We aren't sure if it will sterilize you, hide out in your nervous system, or reinfect you over and over again. But just go ahead and catch it so you can get back to work on my stonks.
Cameron Cook
Nobody dies of common flu, less get tested for flu than you claim died. Btw H1N1 is Spanish flu. >picture related
Are you trying to tell me that a healthy person needs hepatitis antibodies? Well if you are fighting a disease and have antibodies then you aren't healthy. By your logic absolute lowest genetic people who are in hospital all life are immune, because they generate antibodies whole life.
We need to start countering these shill threads by making more like pic related. Be diligent they will be posting similar infor graphics that are false to spread disinfo they are trying to whip us into a panic. Dont forget people were waking up to who is responsible for all the corruption and crime in all the governments of the world before all this bullshit.
All previous stock brokers had mental conditions and below 60 IQ.
Samuel Powell
Why you post fake pictures all day? Obviously you are the shill here.
Joseph Foster
Go eat pills of papa Trump and get vaccinated by uncle Gates for every disease, so you will have antibodies for every disease, so you will have every disease.
it is simple. you multiply number of deaths with a 1000 to get the current number of infected + recovered.
So 18.279.000 italians had it.
those 50% community spread estimates were not bullshit.
Germany is at 25%+ now and can start thinking of returning back to work in a few weeks, keeping elderly and HIV-faggots in self-isolation.
Luke Hill
All Trump's friends and your media. Has nothing to do with my country. When 1 Chinese died you claimed that it's a big tragedy, that WHO didn't respond, now virus came to your country and you claim it's nothing burger when 20000 die. You are mentally ill Jewish cock sucker, only caring about some stupid Jewish stocks.
Nathaniel Garcia
>AHHHH NOOOOOO NOW WE NEED MASSSS GRAVESS!!!! NOOOOOOOOO NOOO NOO DONT YOU ALL SEE NOW ITS NOT JUST THE COLD BE WARNED NOW GUYZ!!!!!!!’ WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!! AND BY “ALL” I MEAN “1% OF US WHO ARE OVER THE AGE OF 80 WITH 3 OR MORE SERIOUS PREEXISTING MEDICAL CONDITIONS”!!! AHHHH NOOOO!!!!!
>CORONACHAN IS FOR REALL!! BELIVE ME!!!!!! GRAMPERINO WAS ONLY 84 YEARS YOUNG AND ONLY 2.5 YEARS AWAY FROM MAKING A FULL RECOVERY IN THE CANCER WARD!!!! AHH!! BUT CORONACHAN SLAYED HIM WHILE HE RESTED PEACEFULLY IN HIS MEDICALLY INDUCED COMA AFTER A VERY MINOR HEART TRANSPLANT!!! OOOOHHHHH NOOO!!! HE WAS BARELY EVEN SUFFERING FROM POST SURGICAL SEPTIC SHOCK WHEN THE CHINAMAN VIRUS GOT TO HIM!!! AHHH OMZ!! HE STILL HAD SOOOO MUCH TO GIVE TO THIS WORLD!!! NOOO WHY CORONACHAN!!!!?!?!!!!! WHYYYYY!!!!?!?
>Oh noo, WHO is responsible not declaring world's emergency when 1 Chinese died, because lets wreck Chinese economy >1 month later: nothing burger if this virus kills 100000% more in USA, because lets wreck Chinese economy
who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/ >12 January 2020 >On 11 and 12 January 2020, WHO received further detailed information from the National Health Commission about the outbreak. >According to information conveyed to WHO by Chinese authorities on 11 and 12 January, 41 cases with novel coronavirus infection have been preliminarily diagnosed in Wuhan City. Of the 41 cases reported, seven are severely ill. This is when the one death, mentioned above, was reported, in a patient with other underlying health conditions.
>antivirals might be developed These already exist 1) Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc 2) Ivermectin (maybe) 3) That AIDS combo for poofs But the media just stopped talking about them. They've given up on trying to run HCQ into the ground so they're trying to just bury it with silence.
Grayson Flores
You have no power here. Shut down the thread because your team is failing.
Aren't those RNA diseases fun? People claim they are immune, but they need to eat antibiotics and get vaccinated each year. Sure sounds like a lot of profit, ain't it stock guy?
Noah Perez
According to recent findings by Professor Sephardi at the University of Cazzate department of Proctology the total number of undiagnosed cases of Covid-19 in Italy could exceed the actual population of Italy by 6 million. The projected death toll is estimated to be even higher, amounting to more than 34/34 of the people currently residing in Italy.
James Scott
That math is bullshit. If 15% of germans have been infected than the actual mortality rate goes down to about 0.02% It's basically the fucking common cold.
Juan Jones
No the village is further into the outbreak than the rest of the country. In as a hole less than 15 percent had it. But He calculated how deadly the virus is and from there we can see we missed 4 cases for every case found, if we look at what percentage our official fatality rate (1,8-2,0) currently stands.
