Does Yas Forums suck at basic probability theory?

This

50%

There are three possible green balls you could have picked. One of them is in a box with a red ball, so that one is a fail. The other two are in a box with a green ball, so those two are wins. Win fail ratio of 66.6%

>does Yas Forums suck
Yas Forums sucks a lot of things

The confusion comes from whether you start the probabilistic analysis from the viewpoint of already having guaranteed a trial with a green ball or whether there is the "discarded trial" in which you pick the box with only red balls.

It's either 50% or 66% depending on how you interpret the problem posed.

> English is imprecise
> Math is precise

Oh shit I was right! I mean its the same as the 3 doors question I guess.

FOR FUCKS SAKE U MORONS

IF U PULL A GREEN BALL, IT MEANS THAT THE BOX U HAVE IN FRONT OF YOU IS EITHER THE DOUBLE GREEN OR ITS THE 50/50 BOX , IT CANNOT BE THE DOUBLE RED.

SO EITHER YOU WILL PULL A RED (50/50 BOX) OR YOU WILL PULL A GREEN (DOUBLE GREEN).

ERGO, YOU HAVE A 2/3 CHANCE OF PULLING ANOTHER GREEN.

Well, it's explicitly conditional, meaning the experiment doesn't work if the ball drawn is red, meaning it's already been decided that the first ball drawn must be green, meaning the probability of drawing a second green ball from the same box is 2/3.

If you take away the condition that the first ball drawn must be green, then the answer is 1/3 because then it only matters which box you chose, of the 3.

There is no way for the probability to be 50%, under any circumstance, unless you explicitly state that Box 3 (Red, Red) WASN'T chosen.

Actually, reading over this again, there's no way the probability would be 50%, even then.

It simply isn't possible.

the answer is either 1/2 or 2/3, both answers are true depending on the exeact setup of the experiment, but your explanation is wrong.