Let's discuss the electoral possibilities in 2020.
And I will show you why this map is possible with 5 different sets of data.
1. The United States is becoming more conservative over time.
2. Most states dramatically drifted more Red in the last election.
3. The most popular independents were on the Right.
4. Low Turnout due to the Chinese Virus and Bidens enthusiasm gap will only help Trump.
5. Trump has way more money then Biden and Money talks.
Now I'll share a couple of charts that show the ideological swing of the big 6 swing states from 2000 to 2016 as well as how much more Republican states voted from 2012 to 2016.
Taking a look at the six big swing states you see even states who might shy away from calling themselves "Republican" like Wisconsin, Minnesota or New Hampshire still have gotten more conservative over time. Now considering this conservative bent how would the election play out if the Democrats are successfully branded socialists.
Now let's dig a little deeper into NH, Hillary won the state by fewer then 3,000 votes. NH has changed its absentee voter law for out of state students who we know voted overwhelmingly liberal.
As for Coloardo, Trump lost by a margin of 4.91%. However, Coloardo also had tremendous support for two conservative and Republican leaning independents. Gary Johnson captured 5.18% of the vote and Evan McMullin captured 1.04%. That's a 6.22% share of the electorate that we can assume would only benefit Trump in 2020.
Very similar situation in Nevada, Trump lost by 2.42%. Johnson captured 3.32%
Maine at Large, dramatically drifted more Republican in 2016, with Trump losing the vote by 2.96%, and Johnson capturing over 5% of the electorate.
Some other interesting states like Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey. These states drifted dramatically more Republican compared to 2012, and I wonder what psychological effect Pennsylvania flipping will have on voters in these states. For the past two decades many people have felt their votes don't matter unless they are in a swing state, seeing these new swing states emerging could we see enough voters energized to possible flip these states?
These are the outcomes of the three models discussed in the Moody's report, with a voter turnout variable throw in. It also shows the average of the three models in order to predict the outcome.
The pocketbook model takes into account gas prices, the housing market and real personal income( Inflation, Wages, etc.) On a state-by-state basis.
The stock market model focuses on projections of the S&P500.
The unemployment model focuses on a state-by-state
natural state of unemployment, with a few other personal finance variables.
This is the Moody's model with lowest turnout. With Covid, and Bidens enthusiasm gap. Seems pretty possible
Bidens Enthusiasm Gap is attached.
And Finally on hand Campaign Cash as of March 31st.
damn op legit thread trannies on suicide watch
Thanks
northern virginia fag here, because of this region virginia will never go red again.
Even with everything that I've posted. Even under Regular turnout Moody's agrees that VA should go red.
isnt biden leading in PA and Ohio though?
Not surprised no shilling in an actual thread.
In my opinion Ohio is a soild Red state now.
As for PA that will be the easiest Rust Belt state for Trump to hold.
>1. The United States is becoming more conservative over time.
yeah sure AHAHAHHA
start including white-hispanic into the full "white" category as fast as you can if you want to keep your stupid GOP base in the next 10-20 years
Read the second post. This is also from the same study regarding the nation.
Data from New Mexico.
Why do you assume that this 3rd party support will only benefit Trump and not Biden.
I honestly can't see con, RI, Colorado, deleware Nevada, or especially New Jersey swapping, but NH, Minnesota, and New Mexico are all on the table for Trump
Mostly because the independents were conservatives and the Democrats have all but confirmed they're socialists leanings.
Wouldn't low turnout due to Corona hurt trump more? Because old boomer voters (Trumps biggest fans) will be scared to go out and vote and young healthy people (majority liberal) wont be afraid and will happily go out and vote?
6. Biden clearly has dementia
7. Many commies will sit out rather than vote for Biden
8. People generally stick with leaders during crises periods
9. COVID has proved Trump right about both economic nationalism and the danger of China.
Low turnout historically benefits incumbent presidents, also low turnout always favors those with more enthusiastic voters which by far goes to Trump. Even in uncontested primaries his voters came out and voted for him innmuch higher numbers then other incumbent Presidents.
?? democrats are shifting to the right, alienating leftists
Feels bad to be a Washington bro. My governor wants to keep us locked down.
Ever heard of blue dog democrat.
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Firstly there are absentee ballots so it doesn’t matter. Secondly, Historically low turnout favors the older demographic as they are more likely to make the effort to vote so their participation rate is consistent whereas the youth don’t vote unless enthusiasm for a candidate is really high see Bill Clinton or Obama. Biden doesn’t have any enthusiasm so the youth aren’t going to be bothered to fill in their absentee ballots to vote whereas the old demographic will.
The one thing that is coming that few see is Roe v Wade being overturned in June.
The expected dem response will be too add a push for a Federal law legalizing abortion.
This is not a position they want to take it is one they have to take.
Will this hurt or help Trump?
This election is just for show. Biden is a placeholder. The power brokers in the DNC are setting the groundwork for 2024 when they'll nominate a Millennial candidate for president. By then most Millennials will be in their 30s and 40s, ready for one of their own in the White House. They will also be the largest voting block.