Election Prediction Thread

Trump might win Nevada, their trending red.

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Michigan is gonna be red after this shitstorm

I'll share a couple of charts that show the ideological swing of the big 6 swing states from 2000 to 2016 as well as how much more Republican states voted from 2012 to 2016.

Taking a look at the six big swing states you see even states who might shy away from calling themselves "Republican" like Wisconsin, Minnesota or New Hampshire still have gotten more conservative over time. Now considering this conservative bent how would the election play out if the Democrats are successfully branded socialists.

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nice map, i'd put nevada as likely dem though

Now let's dig a little deeper into NH, Hillary won the state by fewer then 3,000 votes. NH has changed its absentee voter law for out of state students who we know voted overwhelmingly liberal.

As for Coloardo, Trump lost by a margin of 4.91%. However, Coloardo also had tremendous support for two conservative and Republican leaning independents. Gary Johnson captured 5.18% of the vote and Evan McMullin captured 1.04%. That's a 6.22% share of the electorate that we can assume would only benefit Trump in 2020.

Very similar situation in Nevada, Trump lost by 2.42%. Johnson captured 3.32%

Maine at Large, dramatically drifted more Republican in 2016, with Trump losing the vote by 2.96%, and Johnson capturing over 5% of the electorate.

And Finally, just want to discuss some other interesting states like Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey. These states drifted dramatically more Republican compared to 2012, and I wonder what psychological effect Pennsylvania flipping will have on voters in these states. For the past two decades many people have felt their votes don't matter unless they are in a swing state, seeing these new swing states emerging could we see enough voters energized to possible flip these states?

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you are an absolute retard if you think that is even close to a possibility

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does anybody believe these numbers? anybody? does anybody here actually believe creepy biden will come that close?

Trump is convincing his base that it is safe to go out to the polls and vote while fighting mail in ballot initiatives. When the real COVID-19 death rate is revealed you will still have a bunch of shell shocked “I FUCKING LOVE SCIENCE” people that will be afraid to go outside of their house to stand in line to vote. It will be a landslide.

These are the outcomes of the three models discussed in the Moody's report, with a voter turnout variable throw in. It also shows the average of the three models in order to predict the outcome.

The pocketbook model takes into account gas prices, the housing market and real personal income( Inflation, Wages, etc.) On a state-by-state basis.

The stock market model focuses on projections of the S&P500.

The unemployment model focuses on a state-by-state
natural state of unemployment, with a few other personal finance variables.

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I think the disaster for dems will be closer to 1984

this is assuming biden will underperform hillary, which is impossible IMO.

Arizona flipping is a definite possibility, there is a good chance the state is going to have two Dem senators because of McSally being a terrible candidate. I think the most likely outcome is Trump winning the state by 2-3 and Kelly flipping the Senate seat by 3, but if Dems invest a lot of cash in AZ and people turn on Trump because of the economy, it might go blue

I actually agree with your map a lot, I would put PA and AZ as pure toss-ups, the rest is fine

Turnout for Dems will be at historic lows, disenchantment from Leftist and Socialist. Minorities won't turn out, especially Women for an old white career politician. Third parties will have a much weaker showing. Plus Covid-19 will scare many from the polls.

It's over for Democrats.

New Hampshire is definitely easier since he only lost it by a couple thousand votes, and is extremely white. Minnesota is very white too, but since it has Minneapolis it is probably the least likely of the rust belt to go to him (except for Illinois of course)

Normies who watch CNN and MSNBC don't know and probably don't care about Biden's cognitive decline and creepy behavior.

It’s Joe Biden, Joe Biden, maybe if you keep repeating it you’ll actually see. Complacency is a real issue for the base, Trump can’t get cocky or just assume he’ll win. That’s what got Hillary back on the bottle again. However in that regard, ignoring the senility of Joe is untenable. In all rights people are going to see him as he is, a weak, frail, and very old man.

This is the most likely, although Wisconsin will probably become swing the closer we get to November.

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This is what gets me, and what no one seems to realize.

Biden is a much better candidate than Hillary, and one of the best candidates they've run since Clinton, behind Obama. How is this, isn't he senile, doesn't he have dementia?

The thing is, voters don't give a shit. At all. First impressions matter, and Biden's first impression is a stable centrist who isn't scary to independents. That's who he is, and that is how he will always been seen, no matter what happens. Not to mention Black people love him, and Black people vote more than anyone else in the country.

He is most likely going to win for the reasons above. The democrats will fall in line, Biden will drive higher Black turnout and independent voters aren't turned off by him. Not to mention, he has outperformed or matched nearly every single state poll (the ones that matter) in the Democratic Primary.

I wish SoCal and NoCal would split already so that the dems would lose every election

I don't think he wins Michigan. Outside of Detroit / Flint people have been od'ing on red pills.

* i dont think he loses Michigan

My Boomer Dad is a lifelong Democrat who watches CNN 24/7. Even hid impression of Biden is that he's a crazy, weak senior.

If my Dad feels that way I'm sure he's nit alone.

>Joe
>appeal

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Then we'd have six CA Senators.

Based opinion, Frankish steelmaker