Preliminary results from antibody tests in Los Angeles County indicate that the true number of COVID-19 infections is much higher than the number of confirmed cases there, which implies that the fatality rate is much lower than the official tallies suggest. "The mortality rate now has dropped a lot," Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, said at a press briefing today. In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent, she said, the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.
Based on a representative sample of 863 adults tested early this month, researchers at the University of Southern California (USC), working in collaboration with the public health department, found that "approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus." Taking into account the statistical margin of error, the results indicate that "2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus—which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection." That is 28 to 55 times higher than the tally of confirmed cases at the time of the study.
As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent (without taking into account people infected since the study was conducted). The lower end of that range is about the same as the estimated fatality rate for the seasonal flu.
>Implying there aren't people who died from all other flu's before.
You gotta accept live is shitty and ends for all of us, can't lockdown society for every cause of death possible.
Isaac Turner
It's more about lethality.
It fucks you up for life. Your lungs, kidneys, heart etc. all take a HUGE toll. The 2nd wave of the virus might then be the end for you. The death toll right now isn't even clear. There are 800,000 people who are not in the clear at all. It's not over and will not be for a long time. It's too early to call it over.
Ryder Carter
media ignored coronavirus for a solid 2 months until it was too late to stop its spread here
Nolan Perez
It's female genital mutilation until you actually get married, you small dick beta fuck.
Yeah, and Trump proposed travel bans from China already January 31st but was called racist and xenophobe.
Not that it really matters, so far in the rest of the world it's mortality rate hasn't been significantly higher than the regular corona virus. Only the u.s. made the very dumb mistake that the federal government promised to pay hospitals for every patient labeled corona despite having insurance or not.
Thus now everyone has corona...
Thomas Powell
those antibody tests often have false positives and detect presence of antibodies against ANY kind of coronavirus (like the ones that cause the common cold) rather than the COVID-19 one.
Also the flu doesn't kill 1/1000 the population of a major city (NYC) in a few months even after lockdowns and millions of dollars of emergency AID. Even if it was only as lethal as the flu, the fact that so many people have it proves it spreads 100x faster than the flu, plus there's no vaccine or inbuilt immunity in half the population. Also flu doesn't cause X-Ray visible lung damage in asymptomatic patients like COVID does.
Benjamin Phillips
I been trying to tell them too, bruhbuh. But they keep banning me :(
They won't listen. *KLACK* *sigh* Some of you guys are alright. Don't make the Haj this year. Subscribe to PewdePie
At this point I just want everyone's shit to get fucked up so maybe they'll stop being morons. Fuck 'em all. This cold scare has finally made me a misanthrope.
This isn’t the Stanford study, USoCal and public health department are in this one
Noah White
Is that the same antibody test that picks up ALL coronavirus not just COVID?
Samuel Reyes
>cope And the COVID tests are no different, but you’ll beg their accuracy to be true. Get over it faggot, happening over
Levi Sanchez
>Also the flu doesn't kill 1/1000 the population of a major city (NYC) in a few months Weird how NYC seems to be the big stage for it all. NYC appears to be an outlier, most likely there is a different explanation for their death counts.
actually there are hospitals that count every death as coronavirus
Benjamin Hernandez
>NOOOOOOOOOOO NOT THE HECKIN ECONOMIO!!! YOU CAN'T JUST STOP WORKING AND RUIN THE GROSS DOMESTIC PROFITERINO!!!!!!! REEEEEEEE GET BACK TO WORRRRRRRKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!! THINK ABOUT MY MONNNNNEEYYYYYYYYY
>t. Chang
Carson Jenkins
>cope They aren’t even confirming deaths in the beds right now, they’re just assuming
How am I coping? it's not like I have a personal stake in annoying quarantines lasting longer. You care so much about being "right all along" about the virus that you'll believe anything that reaffirms your biases.
William Roberts
>those antibody tests often have false positives
>World leaders say they have so far failed to identify a single coronavirus antibody test which is accurate enough for use >G7 leaders on Friday discussed the search for a home coronavirus antibody test that could allow an early exit from the international COVID-19 lockdown. >The tests are designed to detect whether somebody has ever contracted the coronavirus. >If successful, such tests could allow the roll-out of so-called "immunity passports" allowing people to leave the coronavirus lockdown early. >However, the UK's Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed that no leading industrial nation has yet identified a test which is accurate enough for use. >"On the G7 call earlier it was clear that no G7 country has found a home antibody test that works," Hancock said. businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibody-test-g7-leaders-accuracy-covid-19-immunity-passports-2020-4
Nathaniel Miller
Is your mom the same lady who picks up ALL minorities not just blacks?
Wasn't there suspicion that Commiefornia potentially got corona-chan much earlier and it possibly went completely undetected?
Levi Ross
Flu is less infectious. Make flu with R0 of Covid (around 3), and you would be asking to shutdown over flu with different infectiousness. More infectious flu would look like Armageddon too. It's all about high R0 and deaths per day at the peak post "exponential" initial growth. This highlights complete innumeracy of decision makers. Main argument is muh exponential and muh deaths per day.
Tyler Martinez
So no different than current testing that gives false negatives 30% of the time?
Colton Gray
YIKES. Who abbreviates like that? Junior college detected.
Dominic Thompson
NYC is far denser, far more internationally connected via travel, and far more reliant on close-packed public transportation than any other city. It makes sense it has been hit so much harder than every other city.
Ian Ramirez
>how bout no They have to do that because they have limited tests, you fucking retard.
Otherwise they're going to be dramatically undercounting by even more.
>actually there are hospitals that count every death as coronavirus When there is a sudden surge and with the same symptoms it makes sense to estimate when they are lacking tests. What else can they do?
>They aren’t even confirming deaths in the beds right now, they’re just assuming They don't have enough tests. This has been known for a while. They use them on the living and estimate for others based on symptoms, and sometimes based on testing false for the flu.
All the "I fucking love science" types should have been calling bullshit from day one, the selection bias in the testing methodology was outragious. But only crickets from the peoe that love to tear apart junk science is rather suspicious.
and why do you care so much, you're assuming I have a personal stake in the "happening" when I'm just trying to understand why people can so retarded as to really think that nothing ever happens, and it's all a vast conspiracy to overreact or whatever. It's infantile.
Ryder Hall
No. See >Givernment please >tell us where we’re allowed to go >tell us how we’re allowed to get there >tell us how to dress to go there >tell us how many can go there >tell us with who we can go with >tell us how close we can stand near one another >tell us what we can and can’t buy >tell us how to use our new government regulated salary It’s Commie Simulator 2020 and you’re a bootlicking cum chugger for wanting the shit and perpetuating this regarded talkingpoint
Jace Long
Lol they probably made a poor antibody test that will be positive for other coronaviruses that just cause a common cold. Go back to China's drastic actions and massive underreporting of deaths. But, even if it were only as deadly as the seasonal flu, it is infecting and killing people in addition to the seasonal flu, which is a collection of flu viruses, not a single virus. I'm totally with you hoax retards though. I want people to go out and be irresponsible to maximize death. This virus, on rare occasion, has claimed those in their 20s with no preexisting conditions. Even if that's 1/10000, spread the virus around so it claims them. The US has 330 million people. It would behoove wagies like yourselves to eliminate as many people as possible in the hope of creating more demand for your unskilled labor.
Aiden Sullivan
If you understand this, you are the one who is fucked. Blue pilled NPC will feel grateful for being saved from Kung Flu by the government. It's a 9-11 redux. You will be buying face masks as part of your outfit for the foreseeable future.
Evan Kelly
>>They aren’t even confirming deaths in the beds right now, they’re just assuming >They don't have enough tests. This has been known for a while. They use them on the living and estimate for others based on symptoms, and sometimes based on testing false for the flu. Which greatly reduces the confidence and taints the estimates, which is why they’re beyond sporadic
Nathan Rivera
>the average age of death by coronoa in Mass is 81
literally three years above the national average lel
oh no I guess all the politicians are in the pocket of big Face Mask
Colton Harris
>NOOOOOO GOVERNMENT PLEASE DONT HARM THE ECONOMY!!! PLEEEEAAASSSEEEEE I NEED TO WAGESLAVE!!! PLEASE DADDY GOVERNMENT LET ME GO BACK TO WORK!!! THINK ABOUT THE ECONOMMMMYYYYYYY!!!!!!!
Dominic Morales
They all use the same antibody test. So it doesn't even matter. The only thing these studies prove is that we are nowhere near herd immunity.
Zachary Mitchell
>just let it be real >let me have this Seeya faggit, nothing ever happens. What did happen was a media fueled reaction which every government followed each other in lockstep so they can’t get compared to another as not doing enough. It’s an election year user, ulterior motive is everywhere, especially trying to leverage nationwide mail-in ballots
Hudson Bailey
So effective Your boss should give you a raise
Samuel Sanchez
Oh, the humanity
Cameron Reyes
That pic, meanwhile Texas will become 70% spick after this year census
Zachary Torres
Frisco is denser and has even more bum shit.
Jackson Nelson
>Which greatly reduces the confidence and taints the estimates, which is why they’re beyond sporadic Yes, we're not confident. There is high risk. That is why we are reacting harshly.
Thomas Miller
SeeAgain, no input needed for those willing to take the government’s cock down their throat so they can feel “safe”
Ryder Cook
Nah, it's all going to fall into chaos. There is no master plan outside of people's fantasies. What is actually happening is a bunch of lunatics with too much influence are lashing out in death throes. Nature always reigns supreme in the end. You will find people aren't so easily controlled when the comforts that kept them passive fade.
Ayden Clark
Tell you what? If you take regular flu and make it R0 3, you will get your deaths per day of Covid with the regular flu. The panic is based on high R0 that manifests through death spike. High R0 cold will kill a shit load of people in short time too. It doesn't mean it's that deadly. People interpolate. Low R0 plague will get a meh response, though.
Jonathan Stewart
How about you actually respond to his argument rather than calling it cope. Do you even have one? The antibody tests are deeply flawed.
