I believe the crisis is ending when global new cases drop to 50k/day

But currently it’s going sideways for weeks now and that’s awful.

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curve flattened like my cock

"case" means fucking nothing because over 40% are asymptomatic. the virus doesn't even affect them. it's a fucking bullshit weak ass virus.

curve flattening never happened

Crisis will be over when they get WW3 kicked off. Probably next month.

why 50k

Look to Italy for an unmitigated epidemic. Wasn’t pretty.

Because it would be a 50% retreat from the peak.

The level of social distancing determines the R0 and therefore rate of new cases. If you want it to stop entirely, you need to to extreme lockdowns for 1-2 months, MORE extreme than China did (not gonna happen).
The moment you open up again, the cases will resume growing exponentially.

>If you want it to stop entirely, you need to to extreme lockdowns for 1-2 months
You can get to 0 at an R0 of 0.6... Austria is doing that.

The problem is that e.g. Canada’s R0 is larger than 1.

Also, look at Hong Kong, Taiwan or South Korea - no lockdowns, they still do best in the world.

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Where do you get these R0 graphs from?
Canada isn't really taking the lockdowns that seriously from what I can see. Lots of people walking about, enjoying the sunshine here.

What's Austria done that's been so effective?

>What's Austria done that's been so effective?
Local quarantines in highly effected districts. Like “nobody can come in or out” type of quarantines.

Also, they made people paranoid so they stayed at home and wear masks in shops.

Yea I think masks are key. That's why Hong Kong, S.Korea and Taiwan have been doing well. Too bad you basically can't buy them here anymore.
It's hard though, Singapore appeared to be doing well for a while and have spiked up recently.

Considering this all started with a single case, I don't see it going away until a vaccine or highly effective treatment is mass produced.

These retards are already reopening the country since April 14th and normalfags already stopped caring about the quarantine before they even lifted it. Parks and bathing rivers were full of people when the wheater was good and by full I mean Chinese mass tourism in Rome levels full.

>Singapore appeared to be doing well for a while and have spiked up recently.
It’s a city without a lockdown.

>normalfags already stopped caring about the quarantine
Don’t think so. You are telling me this rapid downwards trend will end because some uninfected hand a strudl to their grandmas?

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Damn, guess you'll be locking down again in 3 weeks or so

>You are telling me this rapid downwards trend will end because some uninfected hand a strudl to their grandmas?
Imagine the downward trend continues until Austria have the same number of cases as they did when they locked down on that graph, then they open up and return to normal. What's changed? Nothing. You basically went back in time and repeat the pattern.

>Damn, guess you'll be locking down again in 3 weeks or so
The 3 industrialized democratic nations with the best corona track records A. had no lockdowns and B. a population used to public mask wearing.

Those are South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Austria has a lockdown... but also a public mask mandate for shops and public transport.

Any country without a public mask mandate will struggle with corona for long, everyone else is going down to 0.

subhuman nations like brazil and indonesia/china don't count cases tho or deaths

You may be on your first baby steps to take the red pill. If quarantines doesn't really work, why all the world governments push for it?

>then they open up and return to normal.
2/3rds of infections related to mass events, hospitals, old care homes and clubbing/apres ski.

Nobody is lifting hygiene restrictions in hospitals and old care homes. And mass events are banned until the cases remain at 0 for weeks.

When Austria’s lockdown started to have an effect around March 20-25, R0 had already fallen to 1.5.

Doesn't Singapore employ the wearing of masks just like S.Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong though?

That's the intent. Up down up down, until there's a vaccine. You can't stop the fucking, only delay it until you find a condom.

>china
cope

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Quarantines work... but you don’t need them with a public mask mandate.

Countries without a mask wearing tradition are, however, not easily convinced of mask wearing.

Fair point actually. The R0 even began to drop before the lockdown started

Until 2 weeks ago, Singapore used the WHO narrative and acfively discouraged people from wearing masks.

straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-govt-will-no-longer-discourage-wearing-of-masks-to-give-reusable-masks

They literally did Hans. If the numbers keep trending down then either some fuckery is going on or it truly is just a fly bro.
All the measures sound nice and good and were also followed in the beginning but the longer they went on the more the normalfags started disobeying them. I tell you the parks are full, I've never seen so many people in them, never ever. Every night you hear groups of drunk teenagers roaming the streets after they get shitfaced in parks due to all clubs and shisha bars being closed. Even in my personal circle people started meeting up again, celebrating birthdays, Easter, doing home parties.
Many people do wear masks but most still don't and even those that wear them out them down when talking. Many also keep their nose open. Mask-duty in shops also was a good idea but is handled horribly, in my local supermarket guess where you get the masks legally needed to enter the store? At the cashier on the other side of the store meaning you have to cross the entire shop anyway. Not to mention that the employees also tend not to wear them.
There's still enough people thinking it's just a flu bro and now we're opening up non-essential shops again.
If the numbers are still dropping in 10 days then I'll really be at loss for words.
I believe we will soon go back into lockdown again. Our government said should the cases rise again they'll have to pull "the emergency brake".

Interesting, guess we've got a testable prediction to watch here.

I think the whole thing works about like this:

A. Western culture normality / no restrictions: R0 of 3+

B. Western culture, no masks, just recommended soft social distancing, mass gatherings canceled - R0 of 2

C. Strict hospital and old care home hygiene in addition to B. - R0 of 1.5 to 2.0

D. Public mask wearing in addition to C and B. ... R0 falls to 1 and below

E. Lockdowns... R0 can fall below 1 depending on how tough the lockdown is

its been going sideways because it just barely hit latin america. you may see another spike for a month then just continuous collapse unless brazil or we fuck up catastrophically

>I tell you the parks are full, I've never seen so many people in them, never ever.
You don’t contract the virus in the park. Not even in supermarkets.

You get it while clubbing, chatting up a girl or during business lunches or meetings indoors where you talk for hours and people sneeze. Or in hospitals where doctors abd nurses tend to all kinds of patients spreading the virus or old care homes.

Think about the Schwerpunkt testing you did and we in Germany did. Supermarket employees - literally nobody is infected, Hospitals doctors / nurses? high infection rates. They were superspreaders.