> We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.
> Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*
This would put the CFR of COVID-19 at about the same lethality of a bad flu season or even lower. With governments around the world putting their citizens under house arrest this makes for literally the biggest overreaction that has EVER happened.
Bump. This stuff will go over brainlet’s heads here, but it’s true. This is an event of mass hysteria, hyping up a weak disease to attack trump, and buying right into Chinese propaganda.
does this take reinfection into account? there's no chance of immunity after "recovery" and reinfection always hits 100x harder thanks to ADE. we're fucked once this goes endemic, even if those bullshit downplayed numbers are true.
Asher Gutierrez
>get asymptomatic coronavirus >get swiss cheese lungs At least I didn't die! Happeningfags btfo!
Elijah Scott
Thanks user I was about to make a thread about “muh two more weeks” but I have a question for the happening fags. Why didn’t we just quarantine the old folks, let everyone else get sick a develop immunity, and then wash our hands/6 feet etc only when we had to interact with the at risk population? Also how does alcohol or soap kill a virus?
Andrew Ward
You use the boat, because it's a literal fully confirmed sample with various ages
It's close to 3% there with 10 still severe/critical
Nicholas Torres
then why even bother containing it? You cannot lock everyone inside waiting for the Bill Gates vaccine for 18 months, people will die for other reasons at a far greater rate
Luke Stewart
How would you know when the virus is so new? Anyway they say the only people dying have cardiovascular problems already, so just stay healthy and no problems.
Ethan Wood
Because "all cause deaths" can easily double the number of dead due to health care systems being overwhelmed. Don't know how many times this need be repeated in order for you fucking sub 90 iq morons to grasp it.
Xavier Baker
>How would you know when the virus is so new? They don't know if the virus is new, it's just newly discovered. It may very well have been around since the dawn of time.
Logan Walker
there won't be a vaccine. the virus has ADE and it's mutating rapidly. there are a lot of reports of reinfection, but no proof of immunity.
>various ages >cruise ship >various ages yeah varied from 50 to 107
Camden Green
Remember when nobody believed a thing China said?
Ethan Perez
No, it had the whole spectrum of ages. Middle aged made up most infections It also gave the number of asymptomatic/very mild at 18% IIRC.
Nathan Russell
it's not an overreaction from the perspective of authority. they want to be able to lock everything down on a whim and have you believe it's for your own good. that's the ultimate goal of any government, you get all the shit AND you're the "good guy" and can act with impunity.
the flu has eight times the bodies so far in the us, but they wanted some fresh inflationbux from the fed. nothing to do but see how it plays out. personally, im saddened by how astroturfed and destroyed Yas Forums is, and extremely disappointed in how my entire extended family fell for the fear programming.
Tyler James
There is no such thing as immunity user. Everyone can always be reinfected but antibodies cause the immune system to respond quicker. What do you think a symptom is user? >fever Brain tricking you into feeling cold so your muscles contract and heat up the body to denature proteins which defeats the pathogen (and your cells too). >cough Mucus created by the cells in the nasal passages and trachea that trap pathogens and is then pushed out of the body. >sore throat White blood cells attacking pathogens but killing some of your throat cells in the process >headache Some capillaries get closed off to prevent the spread of infection in the brain which triggers others to open then close then open. This creates the characteristic “pounding.” >Pneumonia Destruction of cells near the alveoli where the oxygen and carbon dioxide get exchanged resulting in blood or fluid entering the space where air should be. This is the only one that really matters but if you don’t have any symptoms then the body defeated the virus before any of these could take place.
Isaac Cruz
Give it a rest schizo
Colton Evans
>This would put the CFR of COVID-19 at about the same lethality of a bad flu season or even lower. That's not the point, it's >>the ease of transmission >>transmission from asymptomatic people
Get into an elevator with someone with red eyes and a runny nose: "Oh no, the flu!" Get into an elevator with 'perfectly healthy' person: you contract coronavirus and pass it on
Jaxon Powell
Kek youve been posting this image since january
Owen Wilson
That's retarded. It's 2.5% fatal at the lowest
Jason Mitchell
Your argument is automatically invalidated by its Chinese source. They want us to suffer. The only thing we can say reasonably, is the first cases were in Wuhan.
Caleb Turner
>downplayed numbers >when we're all eating our hats over 8000 deaths in the us the number manipulation is working in favor of the covidbullshit and anyone with eyes could see it.
Colton Murphy
>endemic Kek I didn’t even notice. We’re way past this user. It’s endemic -> epidemic -> pandemic.
Evan Bailey
Great source, chief. Did you get that from CNN's account of the death rate found at a nursing home?
Jayden Diaz
>get your armed chopped off >bro, you lived! it's no worse than a flu
please stop this
Justin Harris
Believing months old chinesse bullshit
Lawl
Joseph Moore
On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, a tube packed full of old people, the perfect storm for virus lethality/transmission, the virus was only %.16 lethal.
Why haven’t you spent time arguing with them like I did? What were you expecting from normies?
Andrew Bailey
So suddenly you trust chinese numbers? Because they literally use the obviously fake numbers and compare them with the overblown swine flu reaction. Their iceland example is really something tho because they even admit that they're behind the curve and that deaths are likely to spike soon
If a healthy person with no symptoms can transfer the virus, why wouldn’t a vaccinated person be able to do the same?
Nathaniel Phillips
>they even admit that they're behind the curve and that deaths are likely to spike soon "Heh, yeah, give it two weeks and it'll all go to shit, people dying in the streets!" - NPCs, a month ago
Noah Robinson
>excess death rates of up to 2-4 times already
Luis Gray
Do I have to pay taxes on the funds I receive for being a Janitor here? (I just got accepted)
this, the economy was due for a crash anyway, a (((controlled))) crash would be more favorable to (((them)))
Luke James
This. I wasn’t a nothingburgerfag in the beginning either. The way China acted, I thought it was a 20% kill rate for everyone (not just old people). We are witnessing the largest mass hysteria event in history, and it’s wrecking people’s lives financially. WHO and China need to be held responsible, as do the media companies who push fear mongering. This entire thing has been politicized and will be used to take away more privacy in the name of saving lives while simultaneously devastating the economy >fuck yeah bankrupt the boomers LOL You faggots are going to graduate and be unable to find decent jobs. The trades are starting to hurt as well, and the economic fall out effects trades 6-7 months after the initial happening.
This is going to cause mass social chaos, and none of it will be used to our advantage.
Eli Foster
And 10% of all infected there needed intensive care, high likelyhood that they would have died without
Justin Smith
Literally every single country has admitted they're assuming every positive death is caused by corona.
Noah Price
Overreaction because trump fumbled the response, if it was a nothing burger why couldn't he handle this?
Ryan Torres
On the other hand they dont count people who died in home quarantine and nursing homes. France started adding them and the death rate spiked
Dylan Russell
you are a stone cold fag 99% of people won't go to the hospital over this And hospitals can't do shit because "there is no cure" anyway, right? Hospitals are just fucking hospice for this shit. They should stop taking in covid patients and go back to dealing with shit they actually can treat.
Caleb Sanchez
The article has separate analysis of the diamond princess and china, and implies a big discrepancy in chinese data.
Usually academics will not flat out say china is a bunch of liars.
Parker Nelson
And how do they know what THOSE people died of? They're making assumptions yet again.
Brayden Green
CORONA HOAX
Charles James
DON'T ASK QUESTIONS!!
Blake Perry
Get out of here with that bullshit. Has not even been remotely demonstrated.
Cameron Sullivan
That is precisely what we should have done.
Dominic Harris
Average age a full 20 years above even the oldest nations.
Michael Fisher
China's numbers are INCORRECT
Carson Evans
read the /cvg/ pastebin. there's a large archive of reinfection cases and pleny of proof of ADE in there.
Jacob Baker
There's fake news fucking everywhere dude. Hospitals don't even know what they're looking for in the first place, how the fuck should they know what a reinfection looks like?
Jeremiah Thompson
>read the psyop pastebin it's very convincing to a paranoid, unstable, loser with low IQ fucking sad.
>how the fuck should they know what a reinfection looks like?
>patient "recovers" >dies of pneumonia a week later
Camden Carter
"needing intensive care" is a vague statement and even so, this is still elderly population and "needing it" is unknown. If it's as simple as drinking water and taking some medication and being reassured, it's unnecessary for them to go to the hospital.
Cameron Baker
Yeah BUT you fail to take into account that Sars-cov-2 is extremely contagious, meaning that everybody has it at the same time. France for example has 70 mil population, a 0.26 death toll would be nearly 200.000 persons and in a short period of time. No politician would want to have this outcome.
Recovered from what? They don't even know what they're looking for in the first place. How do you know they didn't just get the seasonal flu? It can trigger pneumonia you know.
James Wilson
> does this take reinfection into account?
I believe so, it seems that this is accounted for in the distinction between 'IFR' and 'CFR'.
Evan Lewis
10-20% of all infected actually need to go to the hospital. Sure you wont die if you're a healthy and young but 25-35% of the western population have comorbidities They cant be tested, not enough capacity. Usually one person is tested positive and the rest is assumed to be infected. How would you explain the sudden death spike which is completly unusual and that just happend in the last two weeks? If that was what is needed we wouldnt see this enormous death spike
Eli Hall
Even if true it still has many more people requiring ICU care and while they will live with it if the hospitals are overwhelmed then they die, not to mention permanent lung and testical damage
Zachary Price
Because we can test for the seasonal flu and we know the average death rates of the flu
Austin Bailey
> Because "all cause deaths" can easily double the number of dead due to health care systems being overwhelmed.
The panic caused by the overreaction and mass hysteria will easily overwhelm the hospitals on it's own. It's these difficult to quantify exactly but majorly impactful factors that you flatten the curve faggots always fail to account for. Because of stuff like this, quarantines cost lives.
Anthony Adams
> On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, a tube packed full of old people, the perfect storm for virus lethality/transmission, the virus was only %.16 lethal.
Note: this is true but you have to extrapolate the age demongraphics of the ship to the wider population. In before dumbfucks that don't know this.
Carter Rodriguez
>enormous death spike We have 3 million deaths a year in the USA. That is 57000 per week. Do you see a spike in this in the past weeks, compared to previous years? I'd assume that is hard to say because the data is almost certainly smaller than the noise.
Counting any death where the person had COVID antibodies as a COVID death would lead the naive to believe there was a COVID death spike.
Hudson Gutierrez
I agree. Too many deaths are “corona” deaths. Where is the context?
Cameron Wood
> This is going to cause mass social chaos, and none of it will be used to our advantage.
This. Living in clown-world sucks but this is not the way to get out of it. The world we end up in will be worse if fear-mongering is not resisted.
Hudson Cruz
>How would you explain the sudden death spike which is completly unusual and that just happend in the last two weeks? Lazy or incompetent statisticians adding one death to multiple piles.
So why are hospital admissions in NYC for influenza-like illnesses back to normal levels after a late March spike? Why is the giant white floating hospital in NYC harbour sat empty with no patients inside? Why is the emergency NHS hospital "Nightingale" that was thrown up outside London to deal with the expected mass of dying people completely fucking empty while London's hospitals easily deal with what at this point looks to be nothing more than an overhyped seasonal flu?
Talking about death rates is completely fucking pointless when nobody is even attempting to find out the true death rate of what's believed to be COVID-19. If you don't test the wider populace, your figures mean shit.
Christian Jackson
> This. I wasn’t a nothingburgerfag in the beginning either. The way China acted, I thought it was a 20% kill rate for everyone (not just old people).
And also, totally agree with this. Pol is so used to being contrarian that it freaked out when China was clearly up to something shady. Thing is, based on the actual severity as shown bu the numbers it looked like they fucked up as a result of bad data just like every body else then their overreaction prompted further western government overreaction.
Jace Cooper
this the fucking low is schitzo cvg trash should be banned to bant ..it’s complete unsubstantiated garbage. it’s a mark on pol that’s it allowed to continue
Nathaniel Torres
The WHO needs to fucking die.
Adam Torres
>dead >irreparable damage You don't say
Daniel Lee
Bump. After realizing that measles is literally 6 times more contagious and just as lethal my panic button was suddenly flipped on its head. Germans are legitimately freezing society because that’s all that these unprepared globohomo retards can think to do. One virus knocked the floor out underneath people who had no business being in charge of even watering the office plants on a continental scale. When the going gets tough then the tough get going. The EU has failed utterly at providing aid and support to Italy & Spain while Germany is pledging to let in refugees but not EU citizens during the “outbreak”. As it stands, the virus has infected a whopping
James Butler
> Overreaction because trump fumbled the response, if it was a nothing burger why couldn't he handle this?
Trump has always been more concerned with public perception than anything else. Often his gift for persuading the public works to his advantage but this also means that he's far more concerned with his image than actual reality. He doesn't care much if the virus is made up if the public perception of it is real.
Robert Perry
kek at people arguing against a standard cvg brainwashed dumbass. cvg posters are a fucking plague. they should be shamed and bullied.
>j-just read the cvg general it has all the info you need
unsubstantiated garbage that is being misinterpreted.
you are so fucking dumb i hate you.
Chase Torres
Strong men create good times Good times create weak men Weak man create bad times
Alexander Martin
How much are they paying you? I see you in every thread spreading the same fear mongering bullshit.
Anthony Moore
>muh virus not lethal enough No shit, it was made to create a new financial crisis, compulsive vaccines to become reality and (((news broadcasts))) to be the only ones to report the news.
Jaxson James
> Lazy or incompetent statisticians adding one death to multiple piles.
This, and also, panic leads to more actual deaths. People go to hospitals more and overwhelm facilities. Stress lowers ability to fight sickness. Health care workers freak out too and allocate more resources to less sick patients furthering the problem of hospital overwhelm. Also, doctors and nurses are sent home over the sniffles and told to stay home for two weeks, furthering a staff shortage problem. With quality of care decreasing, deaths go up.
you are completely right somebody is behind the psyop on Yas Forums but this guy might not be getting paid he might just be a useful idiot. they astroturfed here extremely hard and now it’s pretty much self regulating. they got a bunch of schitzo anons with nothing else in their life and fed them a few garbage reports that the retarded anons couldn’t fully comprehend. but they got the main talking points and have been spouting them for months.
Josiah Lewis
> If you don't test the wider populace, your figures mean shit.
Exactly. We need accurate random sampling of the whole population to estimate the real fatality rate, unless people are willing to believe the statisticians analysis of the diamond princess.
