Continued from last thread, kinda. Let's look at squiggly lines and literal who acronyms while pretending that the market has not completely decoupled from real economic activity in favor of doing whatever the fuck it wants
If anyone has finance or economics softball questions I will answer, despite how fucking idiotic the question is. I wanted to be a teacher but whipped my dick out in front of a school on accident. Satisfy my fetish, faggots. t. worked at an investment bank for two years before deciding to roll the dice on grad school and/or suicide
Pretend you found a way to predict the outcomes of movement of the lines with a greater than 70% accuracy before they occurred.
Wouldn't you immediately use all the money you had, and all the money you could borrow to buy stocks, wait for them to go up, then sell them? And conversely sell short stocks high, wait for them to go down, and then cover?
The price of those lines floats like a tug-of-war between people who want, and people who want to buy, and people who want to sell.
You would become incredibly wealthy and then the market would "price in" your behavior since now you're moving the market by chasing bids and hitting asks.
The next person comes along who can predict the market using your same method as before, and now they can no longer do that. To them the market has again become as unpredictable as the outcome of a fair dice roll.
Being unhappy about this situation is revealing your childish mis-understanding of what it is you're even looking at.
Oliver Jackson
Are we looking at The Greater Depression?
Anthony White
What of the struggle to break back to 21,000? Was the 3000+ gain to provide liquidity to purvey so-called "Trumpbux?" If then, when would those checks begin arriving to American citizens? Then also, what of the stock market strategically? What exactly is going to happen to the economy and, by extension, our society? Regardless of things, that is.
Thomas Ward
>break back to 21,000
25,000***
Wyatt Baker
I'm not reading all of that faggot. Tell me how to get rich or fuck right off.
David Flores
having inside info about FED's next move.
Luis Wright
>ask me anything >im totally smart with like math and stuff
this isn't reddit, take your larp elsewhere faggot.
Sebastian Gutierrez
Might be a dumb question but why isn't inflation happening? I thought economists have been saying for decades that if we inject money into the economy like this then we will experience hyperinflation...but that doesn't look like it's happening, why?
Ian Russell
Because no one is spending the excess money. It is just sitting there
Elijah Cook
> market 'prices in' your behavior > assuming the efficient market hypothesis is anything more than a playtoy for finance 300 students EMH has been thoroughly discredited. Your argument (or whatever the fuck you're getting at) relies on its validity.
Furthermore, unless you're a true fucking whale ala the Morgan credit derivatives guy who almost broke the markets a few years back, you are not moving the market.
> Pretend you found a way to predict 70% Well, no, I won't pretend, because that is statistically impossible, but I will entertain your bullshit, as advertised:
What you're describing with your batshit insane 70% theory is called arbitrage. Arbitrage is what renders your hypothetical impossible in practice. Irony.
> chasing bids and hitting asks assuming you're asking this from the perspective of a vanilla securities trader, e.g. amateur, because those don't really exist in the wild anymore; you clearly have no idea of the industrial organization of the financial industry and are pretty much speaking gibberish, so bear with me: Any bid-ask arbitrage gets eaten up at the speed of light by algorithms parked, literally, in the asshole of one of the major exchanges.
> being unhappy What the fuck are you talking about? I am unhappy because the securities markets are supposed to ensure the efficient allocation of capital. The efficiency of capital is one of the parameters which determine an economy's long term growth curve. This is very fucking bad for civilized society.
> next person comes up The fuck you mean HE can no longer do that? YOU can no longer do that either. Your edge has been neutralized.
I suggest you read a basic economics textbook before copping an attitude despite knowing literal fuck all about commerce in general. For your own sake. Economics is fascinating. Anything else?
Ethan Murphy
Do you expect hyperinflation? How do you forecast how much? Are general performing stocks in your assessment safer than cash at the bank?
Blake Johnson
I have no idea, and neither does anyone else. Day-to-day technical analysis has zero predictive value. Anyone claiming to make money in the long run using technical analysis is full of shit and should be avoided.
Even if they are a Rainman and did find some edge, they are fighting against the speed of light: impossibly powerful computers stationed feet away from the exchanges running the most sophisticated algorithms known to man would eat Rainman's retarded ass lunch.
If I had to venture a guess for the 3000 point jump, I'd attribute most of it to the algos shooting that sweet liquidity into their veins and some of it to refugees from the oil market being fucky, and a little bit to the treasury markets.
The energy sector got fucking mauled and the Dow jumps 3000. It is very possible, if not likely, that the movement has fuck all to do with economic conditions. The markets you learned about--shit, even the markets people pay 60 grand a year to learn about in college--are no longer representative of the actual markets. The simultaneous advent of high frequency trading and the fed playing god have changed the game, maybe forever.
Leo Nelson
Okay, here's how I did it: Go balls deep into the options markets and find a couple of deep out of the money calls with a long expiry. Make a list of candidates, spend six months digging through the 10Ks and financial reports, do some simulations, and pick four or fave and blow your wad on them.
Call options are free money if you approach it with the discipline of an accountant, especially nowadays with ETFs and funds of funds scrambling for dear fucking life to hedge in these insane markets. Quite friendly towards a patient retail investor. Now's the time.
Landon Powell
Naked calls?
Zachary Rodriguez
> didn't read the part where I admit I couldn't hack it and pussied out No, not really. Learn to hide your butthurt. Have you ever met a chad who didn't hide their butthurt? Butthurt comes for us all.
Asher Russell
>unless ... whale ... you are not moving the market. Ok so what alternatively: The high frequency trading firms observe the behavior of your trade, they have total visibility to what the lemmings are doing. They see a surge of people hitting the asks, coming in plain as day. Hundreds of day traders are buying 900 shares of BP, a machine learning algorithm up the asshole of the citadel building in Boston sees it and sees the current situation, and says: "Given current circumstances these people are hitting asks." and so the algorithm is able to add up the average information gained by what those traders knew. Information is transported along the wire at the speed of light and the hedge funds are using something like bayes theorem youtu.be/R13BD8qKeTg?t=83 or some other information-gain consolidating software, and then using that to better inform their own opinion about the future course of this company or whatever it represents.
You say you don't believe in EMH, but to me EMH is a mathematical truth.
the "EMH has been disproven" is a little didactic saying to parrot and repeat to students, so when those students carry that opinion to the trading floor, we can say inside our own mind: "checked and confirmed, this guy has literally no idea what he's talking about".
To me it's like you're saying gravity is a myth.
What do I have to do? Grab a ball and show you? Show you the event when Musk bought 33 million shares of his own stock at the market and watching his stock go from 145 to 159 in a matter of 180 seconds?
Don't tell me to read an economics textbook, I live and breath this stuff. You read an economics textbook.
This, but unironically. If you don't have fed contacts, you're not on the treasury desk. Does this surprise you, given the trillions the fed gifted to the banks and refused to open their books until everyone forgot about the whole thing?
The concept of a privately owned national bank is insulting to anyone with a brain. If anyone has a solid argument in favor of privately owned national banks (say those four words out loud and try not to get mad), I am all ears. The only remotely convincing arguments are shaky and rely on whataboutism. I will give my 1200 neetbux to whoever provides a sound, constructive--that is the operative term, constructive, in the mathematical sense: prove its existence, don't prove something else's non-existence-- proof of the economic benefits provided by a privately owned national bank.
Jayden Turner
You got it. The banks hoarded their fed gibmedats and earned some basis points gibmedats while the 99% were raped and left for dead.
If the average citizen knew how our financial system worked, bankers would be thrown from the rooftops. They don't even have to know how it works. If people just read one of the millions of articles explaining in laymans terms just how hard and how deep all of us were fucked by Wall Street and those in congress (usual suspects) who strongarmed TARP into law (and were handsomely rewarded a few years later), the boogaloo would have come and gone by now.
Nolan Turner
how big do you think the effect of the pandemic will have on world markets? and for how long is the recession going to be? is it gonna be worse than the great depression? what is in your opinion a reasonable level for the DOW for example to rebound at.
Robert Martin
>DJIA same as Sep 2017 >S&P same as Dec 2017 >Russell 2000 same as Jan 2014
This is after the 'rebound' from the last few days.
Camden Lopez
Depends on your time preference. If you're building a nest egg for retirement or kids or whatever, I'd be aggressive in the equity markets. Bonds are blacklisted for me right now due to our arbitrary, rudderless interest rate policies. Whatever the fuck the fed is doing, it is not working, has not worked, and, in a healthy marketplace, cannot work in the long run.
If you're thinking long long term, build a balanced portfolio and let it sit until you're ready to retire. The average money manager don't beat the S&P per annum and the majority don't in the long run either. Once you account for management fees, the average passive investor gets fucked just tenderly enough to not arouse suspicion or ire.
Build yourself a buy and hold portfolio and ride it as long as you can if you have the time and money.
Juan Anderson
>Call options are free money REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yep. Know your limits, of course. If you're willing to learn a thing or two about option pricing (just the basic theory--there are a trillion excel workbooks out there in the wild that do the actual math for you. god bless that smelly fucker Richard Stallman), you can make money.
Like I said, approach it like you're warren god damned buffet. Amateur investors lose their lunch on options (despite their appeal being the lack of downside risk) because they're sloppy and treat it like video poker. Comb through the books and build your investment strategy on fundamentals. After that, narrow it down some more with a little bit of your newfound options market knowhow.
For your calls approach - what do you consider "long term". When you say "out of of the money" what kind of a premium are you generally tolerant of? Are there any core metrics you value for this other than the company's performance? How do you cover/hedge? Do you know in advances how much profit you're willing to take?
Andrew Robinson
Now how the fuck did you go and do that dude. Bankroll management isn't optional, it is a prerequisite. I grew up too poor to learn that lesson the hard way, thankfully.
Brayden Hall
I inherited around $400,000 and shortly after put it into the market. This was about a month before the crash. Assuming that the virus is cured within 6 months, when will I begin to see returns? About half of my shares are big dividend earners.
Joshua Evans
Your guess is as good as mine. The Austrians, Keynesians, Ricardians, Neomonetarists, whoever; traditional schools of economic thought cannot account for America's lack of deflation.
Their models are predicated on useful but oversimplified models governing the relationship between money supply and interest rates. A rogue financial economist (think Rubini before he toned it down) will probably tell you that the lack of inflation makes perfectly good sense; the money supply growth never made it out of the financial system.
That said, inflation is a fickle whore and subject to judicious accounting methods, as are most BEA, Fed, et.al. statistics. Core inflation's "representative basket of goods" represents fuck all lately.
Modern monetary theory is not for the faint of heart
Ayden Bell
>projected 25+% unemployment >markets up 3% today, futures up another 3% what. the. fuck?
Landon Myers
*inflation, not deflation. Furthermore, regarding inflation: the fisher equation, monetary base * velocity = nominal gdp, is the basis for the assumption that increase in monetary base -> increase in price level.
Empirically, this has held true until recently. The advent of electronic banking and fed manipulation of interest rates has rendered it obsolete. It's not wrong in theory, but has no practical use in the modern economy, thanks to the financialization of the world economy and the irrelevance of the velocity of money.
Brayden Rivera
You again. You ever heard of Wolfgang Pauli? Some jag off came into his office one day boasting about his revolutionary physics paper. Like your work, Pauli's brainlet was less than bullshit; it lacked even the most rudimentary understanding of the subject matter. He told the faggot larper, "Not even wrong".
You are not even wrong. Until you learn the basics of finance and economics, shut the fuck up, because I quite literally cannot argue with you; it is nonsense.
Learn the rules of the game and the universe of discourse, come back next week, and we will shoot shit.
Leo Mitchell
I've read quite a few. What are some of your faves?
Noah Reed
There is such a thing as plunge protection teams. That you don't know about them explains why you only lasted two years.
Luke Foster
> EMH good fucking god. EMH is a mathematical truth. a tautology. that is well and good. mathematically true. Unfortunately, that means exactly fuck all when it comes to making money. This theory has been discredited for nearly HALF A FUCKING CENTURY. 50 YEARS. FUCK.
1 + 1 = 2. That's mathematical truth, too. How useful is it as a model for pricing equities? As useful as EMH.
Wait till you learn about the time value of money next semester, m'genius. It'll knock your fucking cum-stained socks off.
Jaxson Rivera
I am familiar with rudimentary risk management. I said that 'anyone claiming to make money in the markets via technical analysis is full of shit'. I did not say 'they are of zero value'.
Furthermore, your flopdick notion of 'plunge teams' are far, far removed from the layman's concept of technical analysis. There is math involved. Lots of math. PhD math. Not schizophrenic protractor elliot wave theory shit.
For the record, I quit because I was average, at best, and hated it. I am a neet who larps as a normie for 9 hours a day so I can afford a qt3.14 mail order bride and our 14 children and still buy vidya. Needless to say, I am not cut out for investment banking.
Juan Moore
So you were an investment banker. Seriously asking . Are you jewish? Also what do you think about day traders I always see these fucking ads
MAKE $2000 IN ONE DAY!! and think well if it was possible why would they advertise it.
Nicholas Ross
You tell me brother. Poke around EDGAR and see if you can dig up any Form 4s (disclosure of material change in equity ownership amongst company insiders; aka a big swinging dick is shitting where he eats).
There has been a lot of weird ones lately. Useful for pinning down abnormal movement in individual companie's share price
Ayden Turner
Go fuck yourself. Good riddance you got filtered from this field. To unironically believe that the market is run by machines, and not people, after February, 2020 is extra chromosome level.
Luis Roberts
Time to jerk off then walk the dog. Keep in mind two things: 1. can't go broke taking a profit. 2. Anyone who works in finance is hardwired to fuck you. Learn to manage your own money. 2.5. lol can you believe the normies fell for the Robin Hood ponzi scheme. fuckin normies
Thanks for hanging out with me bros. Please trust me when I say that this advice is in your own best interest: Shut the fuck up in front of anyone you hope to associate with in a professional capacity. Literally do not speak. Nobody wants to work with the guy who thinks their the smartest guy in the room, even if they are. At best, you piss off someone with more political capital than you. The irony of me illustrating the economic irrationality of you being an arrogant asshole about your lack of economic knoweledge is pretty fucking kino, however. Read the following, read them well, and you will have a decent foundation to build upon:
1. Microeconmics by Perloff (one of the best introductory textbooks in any field. real pottery) 2. Macroeconomics, Jones. Mankiw is an acceptable alternative 3. Valuation, Damodaran 4. Fixed income analysis, Pettit, Pinto, et.al. If you have a good mathematical foundation, read Fabozzi. Great book. 5. Futures, options, and other derivatives, Hull (make sure you get the introductory one. he has two out-one for grad students and professionals, and one for undergrad, the one I listed. you'll know the difference)
Come back in a year and make me look like the dumbass that I am; I don't remember half of the shit I learned in undergrad. Get your revenge, senpai.
Jackson Flores
??? there are reputable publications who estimate that HFT is responsible for 70% of daily trading volume in equity markets.
Aiden Reed
> filtered Bitch, I filed for 130k with uncle sam for 2019 and get to work remotely one day a week. You wanna measure dicks, let's measure dicks.
Tell me, what do you do all day? Besides make a fool of yourself on a senegalese gin rummy forum.
Jack Rivera
Who hurt you? If you're butthurt about the realization that you paid 200 grand to learn literally nothing of practical value, get in fucking line and stop being a bitch about it. I was bugged out too when I realized that the neat, comfy models I was fed in college were absolute bullshit in the field.
Fuck man. I'm trying to help you out and you just double down on being an asshole.
Connor Brooks
> after February 2020 What does that even mean? How is this incompatible with the majority of executed trades occur without human intervention?
Did you grow up wanting to be a floor trader or something? Those dinosaurs got nuked like 20 years ago. Tell me what your big fucking complex is and I can help you. Just stop being a prick! Not a tall order.
Mason Evans
Alright man. Why would I make this up? What is my motive? To larp on Yas Forums? If you want to have an agressive, dick chafing circlejerk where everyone cums in their own eye, head over to Yas Forums. It's your crowd. Good luck. You'll need it unless you change your tune real fucking quick. Don't say I didn't try to warn you.
Asher Reyes
What do you think of TVIX as an investment? will it go back up when the market comes back down?
Kayden Morgan
I run the trading system for one of the exchanges, AMA
Bentley Ortiz
Oh really. Which? What's your title? Tell me about your tech stack. Convince me.
Here. Here is a non-technical book on the radical changes on Wall Street that occurred over the past decade or so. It is a good read and will confirm my off-the-cuff comments on HFT and market microstructure. Don't bomb michael lewis's house or anything, ya freak out. Do note that this was written SIX years ago, which is a lifetime in Wall Street years.
Easton Russell
Michael Lewis walked away from Wall Street after a couple of years, too. He is super fucking rich. I am chad by association.
Julian Anderson
Unironically jnug as a long term investment. I know all about the decay, however, consumer demand for gold and cheap oil this going to mars.
Owen Sullivan
If I could predict this shit I would have gone all in in PUTs. If you know the movement beforehand your play is derivatives, not stocks.
Isaac Ortiz
So before the whole Shanghai sniffles thing i remember some threads about yields inverting and some other things indicating that the economy was fucked already. What was happening there and what caused it? Is corona virus covering up the massive fuck ups of the banks? Is this going to make economic recovery harder? Thanks
Brayden Martinez
How do I turn $700 into $700k?
Sebastian Martin
The guy who predicted 2008 (glasseyed dude from Big Short movie) crash said in anrticle that ITFs were fucked up to a toxic level and would explode soon. Look it up.
Jackson Carter
Find a derivative tha costs 0,01 and pray it goes to 1,00 in a 30% rise in stock price.
Connor Moore
I originally replied 'I don't know', roughly, because I didn't recognize the ticker. Once again: I don't know; I've been writing software for casinos for the past five years.
In general, however, I prefer not to fuck with ETFs, let alone leveraged ones, but that opinion was formed in a professional capacity--they are useful in combination with some of the more complex option strategies, which is what I spent most of my time doing.
Macro strategy, it comes down to your gut: has shit hit the fan or not? Call your shot. Personally, I think the nasty vol movements are over after the fed signaled that they will cut down every tree on God's green earth to keep the ponzi rolling. If you're going to do it and aren't trading daily, an ETF is a suitable vehicle.
Nolan Ward
Oops, pray it goes to 10,00
Liam Martinez
what if i find a good stock that has low options trade volume but its growing and im confident it will grow even more? should i gamble on someone buying the option later or just be safe and buy the shares outright
