Stanford Health Policy's Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya write in this Wall Street Journal editorial that current estimates about the COVID-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
HOAX CONFIRMED HAPPENING CANCELLED
Zachary Mitchell
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Ryder Wood
You mean its not true even though the paid people to post on 4ch about it?
Aaron Young
Oh its the WSJ I must believe them.
Fuck every single media outlet.
Samuel Allen
>stanford.edu
Anthony Miller
>academia
Matthew Sanchez
>"Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate — 2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, 2 million to 4 million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases."
>"The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertainbecause available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills 2 million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far."
Robert Diaz
Who cares? I have time now. I'm working out, drinking less, sleeping more, and eating better.
Luis Collins
Japan and South Korea exist.
Lucas Long
>working out
>all gym closed
Sure you are liar.
Corona is a hoAx
Kayden Russell
Easy way to tell this article is total bullshit.
>If you have been infected you are shedding virus for 7 weeks
>With a doubling ever 3-4 days of infections that means most infections would have happened in the past two weeks
>What this means is that nearly everybody tested would be testing positive.
Since only a small fraction of everybody being tested is testing positive you can discard their results because it is based on a premise that isn't true. The death rate is likely lower than being reported in resolved cases but not by orders of magnitude.
Nathan Anderson
Kettlebells and elliptical. I don't lie. I have no reason to.
Daniel Flores
Thank you for proving my point.
South Korea as of today has tested 376,961 with 9,332 positive. This has not infected everybody in the population yet as this fake news article asserts.
Juan Watson
Hoax
HOAX
>Hoax
>HOAX
Hoax
HOAX
>Hoax
>HOAX
Hoax
HOAX
>Hoax
>HOAX
Owen Murphy
If the WHO estimates are right and SK is months past Italy and USA they should have several hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Nolan Ward
Chinese social systems engineering is chock full of models with absolutely unchecked exponents. Unchecked exponents look GREAT on a spreadsheet when you're reporting up on how to herd the long pig, unchecked exponents are a DISASTER for making real-world decisions.
This is why INTELLIGENCE AND DISCERNMENT are critical capabilities of any executive.
Carson Myers
>. I'm working out, drinking less, sleeping more, and eating better.
*Dies anyway*
William Brown
So it takes stanford months to catch up to me and other morons on 4ch.
Sounds right.
Daniel Hill
Lol look at this poor day who can’t workout at home
Wyatt Rivera
Cope.
Millions had it and nothing happened before the whizbang testing.
People died, but not even enough to tip people off it wasnt just flu.
Alexander Stewart
there's currently a 1.67% mortality rate in the USA for the COVID-19 and as we know deaths lag behind contraction of the deadly virus.
Angel Wright
>That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.
>likely
Bullshit. It’s just conjecture.
Levi Davis
Problem with this analysis is that it's the same thing for the flu, where the ranges can be from 10 million to 30 million infected, so yes you have to apply that same thing to Corona. Problem here is that there are ranges used there, and the same ranges used with Corona. So if the bottom end estimate for Corona in terms of infected means a, lets say 10% death rate (going by Italy), with a mid range of 1% (for countries like SK which have done massive extensive testing), to 0.1%, imagining that places like SK actually have 10X more infected than tested, that means you have to compare them to the ranges of the flu infected vs. dead. In first world countries, it's usually 0.01-0.08% CF ratio. For Corona its 0.1-10%. Which means at the least, it's still 10X deadlier than the flu, and at the most, nearly 100X deadlier.
Owen Turner
I posted damn near identical numbers three weeks ago, but I referred to the Diamond Princess as a control study and they called it a "floating laboratory". Whatever. I still get to say "told you so".
Ryder Hughes
It is .1, not .01.
Wyatt Cruz
The actual best test study was the cruise ship passengers, and how many got infected, and how many died from it. Since it was a closed lab for all intents, and purposes, you got actual numbers for true data purposes. In fact you have a couple of closed labs, but as usual if you point this out to those making money from it they will point, and call you a conspiracy nut.
This whole thing is another case of them testing to see how well all of these decades of indoctrinating youth has worked. As we can see it has worked far too well.
Andrew Price
Lol I'm a brainlet and I've been saying this for weeks, why does it take an accredited university this long to point out the most obvious logical flaw with extrapolating mortality rates with the current "testing" that's being done on this disease. Too little too late. Now everything is already shut down and people are in such a state of panic to the point that nothing to the contrary will convince them this isn't the end of the world.
Owen Fisher
Statistic fags been posting this here for about a month or so
Parker Bennett
Oh, hi there faggot!
Connor Hughes
Why would they have that many deaths? They went nuts on containment early and everybody infected got the best medical care available because the hospitals were not at capacity.
Brandon Perez
FUCK OFF
Dylan Edwards
This guy says he is a former actor. The virus seems to target actors
"David Abel Files Diamond Princess Star Denies He Is A Crisis Actor Coronavirus hoaxathon"
Luke Jones
Nope,
Wednesday it was 15%
Thursday it was 16%,
Friday it was 17%,
Today 18%
You see, COVID-19 has a 15-20% kill rate just like SARS, cause it is SARS with extra perks
Jace Wright
Their bashing of a 2-4% mortality rate being too high isn't THAT far off of the Diamond Princess's mortality rate of 1%. Plus what about the Grand Princess cruise liner? 103 infected, with 2 people dead, both in their early 60's, mortality rate of 2%.
When you take population age into account however, things look better. If you normalize for the age of the American population and compare it to those 2 cruise liners and look at mortality rate for the young from Corona, it looks like the mortality rate, overall, is around 0.2-0.5.
Which at the higher end, is still at least twice as deadly as a bad flu season, and possibly 5X worse.
BUT...is it worth shutting down the country for? Realistically...No. Closing the boarders for non essential travel for awhile and self quarantine for people above 60, and especially for people above 70, would have been enough, or at the very least ordering them to wear N95 face masks if out in public as well as gloves. Atleast until effective treatment is found.
Gabriel Cruz
Can you refute what I said or just make baseless assertions?
Ian Taylor
can you think of any selection bias that might arise in the occupants of a cruise ship?
Isaac Hall
Ayden Harris
Sure, it’s possible for the death rate to be lower than reported, but that doesn’t mean it is. Why can’t people understand this?
Michael Torres
Fucking anons have been pointing this out for over a month lmao, I guess Yas Forums is full of geniuses.
Isaiah Hill
>0.025 social credits have been deposited in (((your))) bank account
Michael Butler
Because they are scared as fuck of what is happening and want it to be nothing. Their rationalization hamster goes into overdrive as they try to convince themselves they wont be personally affected.
Carson Sanchez
Here's the discussion in the media
>The flu has 0.1% mortality
>Corona appears to have 3%
>Um sweetie, it only looks way worse because we are only testing the very sick
>With more testing we find that the real corona mortality rate is around 0.5%
>So it's just like a bad flu season
I'm waiting for the media to realize that the flu mortality rate is probably much less than stated for the same reason; we only test the very sick.
I'm also waiting for them to point out that even if two diseases have the same mortality rate, if one infects 10 times as many people then it will kill 10 times as many people.
Corona has this potential since it has a long incubation, it can spread asymptomatically, and there is no herd immunity to slow it down.
Be sure to donate your masks to your local hospital since they won't protect you.
Ryder Flores
The millions of deaths are unreported because the people that would be recording them are dead too.
John King
then why would the hospitals need the masks?
Josiah Cooper
And incels are desperate for it to be deadlier than it is because you have this weird notion itll improve your life.
Kevin Taylor
It's only .1 in very bad seasons, like last season was the highest in 40 years. The average of the last 20 years of flu deaths in america compared to est. infect was 0.03 with 3 flu seasons being large outliers. A bad flu season ontop of a, atleast .1 death rate for Corona isn't going to be pretty.
Aiden Sanders
first video was shoa'd,
reupload youtube.com
NY Medical Examiner says "we are not overwhelmed at the city morgue at this time"
youtube.com
when the NY EMT is asked have you seen a "viral pandemic", EMT laughs(pic related), when the EMT is asked "have you seen a glut of coronavirus" the EMT just shakes his head saying no.
youtube.com
also according to some hospital employee, she has not seen a surge of coronavirus patients, the youtuber is then escorted away by police
went to local hospital, literally no lines nothing but empy tent,
video anons in Spain travel to many empty hospitals youtube.com
video: empty hospital in italy, youtube.com
lockdown USA no pandemic at hospital
youtube.com
he visits again, nada
youtube.com
there is no surge of sickness, no surge in yearly death count, world wide or in any country, this pandemic is based on asymptomatic cases testing positive on a meaningless test
China has no new cases because the changed the test, now the test is designed to not detect anything , thus phasing out the hoax.
cnn.com
the World Health Organization (WHO) reacted to the change in their Friday situation report, noting: "Some previously reported 'clinically diagnosed' cases are thus expected to be discarded over the coming days as laboratory testing is conducted and some are found to be Covid-19-negative
Asher Murphy
Because there are other things hospitals treat besides corona.
Juan Turner
Aaron Wilson
>Diamond Princess's mortality rate of 1%
>3711 passengers
>7 dead
I thought you chinks were better at math
>inb4 pic related leaf
Ethan Torres
>It's only .1 in very bad seasons, like last season was the highest in 40 years
That's because last season was the corona
Angel Hill
That's the joke
Good job
Gavin Price
They also don't realize the 0.1 number they tout -IS- a bad flu season. If the rate is .5 thats a lot fucking worse than the worst flu season.
Alexander Cruz
Thanks on your opinion based on incomplete data.
Very cool.
Christopher Diaz
It was a retarded joke so it's not his fault he didnt get it.
Thomas Thompson
What? We're still in the current flu season. I said LAST flu season.
Cameron Murphy
Stanford University suckwad.
Hunter Campbell
Dumbass, 700 were infected, not 3700. Learn to case fatality rate
Levi Price
I'm not an incel and I have zero notion it will improve my life. I have friends that are excited about this because they hate the daily grind and they welcome change. Personally I don't like the daily grind but I realize if this cooks off like its threatening to, I will be wishing for the daily grind back. I'm taking it seriously because I don't want to be caught off guard by the radical changes that are likely.
Luke Bell
Keep it up fittard. Too bad it took a global pandemic to motivate you. Perhaps you should work on that?
Jayden Edwards
How do you know the tests are working properly? Also, how do you know many who were tested haven't already had it and are now testing negative?
Jaxson Carter
Kayden Price
TWO
MOAR
WEEKS
Adam Sanders
Keep up, bloomer. We coming outta quarantine STRONK
Noah Ramirez
None of this fucking matters when you take into consideration the fact it damages your lungs, makes you sterile, and you can get reinfected
Blake Campbell
Israeli and Pajeet spread misinformation to get goys killed.
Visualize my surprise.
Logan Bailey
We should be in the middle of the apocalypse now given how many "two more weeks" have already passed.
Hunter Long
Based off people tested. Not asymptomatics.
Figure also doesn't account for people who died of Corona by it's self, and people with prior conditions who died with Corona.
All this tells us is the U.S. is on par with SK who is apparently handling this better than everyone.
Ryan Flores
in before Bendavid or Bhattacharya are sprayed by a coronavirus mist and end up catching it
Sebastian Phillips
You're a fucking retard if you believe that shit.
>15 tO 20 pErCeNt KiLl RaTe
Nathan James
Seriously. This has been the argument the entire time.
Jonathan Flores
Same can be said for people like you.
>MSM Lies
>OMG we gonna die
Jose Moore
Aaron Ross
No but the anonymous poster kept telling me two weeks and that orange man bad because it's too late now?
Nolan Parker
I don't know the tests were working properly but I recall the tests were tending to show false negative results if anything. I recall Korea among others doing multiple tests to try to use the law of averages to overcome the unreliable tests.
I know they didn't have it and are testing negative because of how communicable this disease is.
2
4
8
16
32
64
128
256
512
1,024
2,048
4,096
8,192
16,384
32,768
65,536
131,072
262,144
524,288
1,048,576
2,097,152
etc.
You see how all your cases are concentrated at the very end? If it's true that we are only noticing this now because everybody has it and only a few people have it bad enough to go to a hospital, then we would be finding tons more positive tests then we are; nearly everybody you tested would have it. If this blew up earlier we would have had an earlier surge in cases going to hospitals and a surge in pneumonia from an unknown cause. So we can pretty much rule out we are on the tail end of this thing, and that everybody already has it and it isn't serious.
We wont know for sure until we an antibody test. But consider this. If we assume that UK report is right and we under react, we are completely fucked.
Kayden Wood
Ironic
Nathaniel Sullivan
Carson Torres
the first "two more weeks" was on February 1st. There has now been 4 "two more weeks"
Thomas Hill
Alright now you are acting like an NPC. I have been watching this since January 21st when the MSM was saying this was a nothginburger. Stop parroting Sean Hannity, it makes you look like a retard.
Nathan Diaz
>it damages your lungs, makes you sterile, and you can get reinfected
Which study are you citing for these "facts"?
Charles Johnson
>Nearly half were symptomatic at the time of testing. Of the symptomatic patients, nearly 10% required intensive care, and 9 passengers died.
It's low because they had intensive care ready for everyone who needed it.
If you instead consider a scenario where you can't treat 100% of people that need ICUs, then would have been closer to 10%, even on that ship.
Jason Hernandez
Why the fuck is op so transfixed on posring happening canceled. Literally the whole point of pol now is Happening.
Carter Bell
>b-but that’s because of the lockdowns!
Don’t forget to be a good goy and follow the quarantine rules!
Liam Ward
happeningfags confirmed brainlets