My forecast:
1 week: 300,000 in the US
2 weeks: 700,000 in the US
Think about that. We will have more cases in the US in two weeks than there have been in the entire world currently. I hope that’s a pretty sobering figure to you.
My R2 for my model of fit is 0.9994. Unless we take some drastic action, we are in BIG trouble in the US. It only gets worse from there.
STAY HOME
Fag
Your model is too rosy
700,000 will occur 5-7 days before you're predicting
>I hope that’s a pretty sobering figure to you.
>My R2 for my model of fit is 0.9994.
>Unless we take some drastic action, we are in BIG trouble in the US. It only gets worse from there.
Even if new infections 100% stopped right now, that curve will continue as it is for 2 weeks.
Poost datars.
The more cases, the less significant each death is.
We should look forward to MORE positive cases, not less. Retard.
And you know who won't be tested? Those of us who already had it in Jan/Feb who didn't even give it much thought.
Fuck you and your quarantine. Go choke on governor cock and kys.
>Just two more weeks
>2 weeks: 700,000 in the US
Im going to stick with the tried and tested one order of magnitude every 12 days assumption and say 1 million in 12 days
>STAY HOME
Sure, and just abandon the economy, what about the corporations, what about the banks, do you even fucking care about the USA.
Deaths will trail cases by 1-2 weeks. In 10 days or so the death count we have will be more representative of the 100k cases we have today.
>I don’t understand statistics, the post
Sigh
Usually biological growth is logistic and hits a wall rather than just continuing exponentially forever.
Wow holy shit. Unreal. I didn’t know a busy genius doctor was taking time out of his day or taking care of thousands of patients had the time to post a bullshit post about nothing on Yas Forums.
More test = more tested = more infected
>two more weeks and everyone dies
KYS
That is correct. Even if this has already infected millions in the US it still has a ton of fucking headroom.
Also the graphs in the pic are for single or multicelluar organisms that reproduce sexually or asexually. A virus is neither.
With 42.4% obesity rate in adults, Americans are sure to get hit hard. It's all fun and games on 4CHIN when a couple of thousands die at the beginning of this but if hospitals are overcrowded in certain places right now give this pandemic 1 month and it's going to be catastrophic. Notice it kills the sickly more than the healthy. America is a fat, sickly nation, so how do you think you'll fare.
You realize there is no exponential growth in the US any more?
For the nothingburgers ITT: China only stopped the shit from spreading using drastic, invasive measures. None of that will happen in America and it's already too late to stop large outbreaks across the country.
Imagine if two months ago, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, Hong Kong all got pozzed just about as badly as Wuhan. That's unironically what's about to happen to Ameriglobe cities.
That's something else no one is talking about. Americans are all obese and half dead already. This virus is going to hit them harder than anyone else.
ive sayed home the better part of two months. I don't give a fuck anymore. they can try to make me stay home and see what happens
it hasnt even reached most of the US yet
>Usually biological growth is logistic and hits a wall rather than just continuing exponentially forever.
Yes.
>You realize there is no exponential growth in the US any more?
lol what? Is this a german joke?
You've never met a real American you chinlet pimple faced Norwegian faggot.
>kys the post
kys
>a real American
No one believes any figures out of any Asian nation. No Asians can be relied on to provide actual data, even in the best of times.
I AM A REAL AMERICAN
Its just a flu bro, no need for any action
I thought almost 50% of americans are obese or super obese. That's a literal statistical fact. Or am I mistaken? Every time I have been to the US I was amazed how everyone is fat as fuck.
Counter measures were put in place for the last few weeks at an increasing rate. I fully expect the numbers to start dropping off, thanks to NYC and their precautions, at the end of next week
Thank you Mike.
>I thought almost 50% of americans are obese or super obese. That's a literal statistical fact. Or am I mistaken? Every time I have been to the US I was amazed how everyone is fat as fuck.
Around 40% obese, 70% overweight.
Dutch intensive Care patiënt are for 75 percent while the number of obese people in the Netherlands are way lower than in the us. America is truly fucked
Hahahahahahahaha all the new yorkers are flying around the country as we speak, we're fucked leaf bro have fun taking over usa when we're dead
>taking action
lel
Real numbers
cdc.gov
>42.4% of American adults are obese
cdc.gov
>71.6% of Americans are overweight or obese
This is correct
>Unless we take some drastic action
You mean like locking ourselves in our houses, prepping, militarily diverting all PPE supplies to the medical sector, forcing a bipartisan stimulus bill in under a week, crashing the world economy and wiping everything down?
Or would it be other drastic measures you are talking about?
not much better according to the WHO there leaf
The US is the highest, but a lot of countries are over 60% obese
>We will have more cases in the US in two weeks than there have been in the entire world currently.
That's probably already baked in the cake because the people in the hospital got the virus 2 weeks prior. (1wk incubation +1wk of being sick at home)
The question is what happens after 2 weeks
what's up econ user? all these plebs doubting your model sound like idiots. have you done one on deaths yet? not sure there are enough observations to really get a high r2
>STAY HOME
No, fuck you.
it's true we have lots of people who are in the category of "overweight or obese" but contrary to you a lot more are overweight than are obese
globalnews.ca
>According to data from the Canadian Community Health Survey, 26.7 per cent of Canadians were obese in 2015
26.7% obese against your 42.4% in the usa.
And my people in Quebec are 23.1% obese so we're even better.
apples and oranges
Are the markets going to keep shitting themselves until this is over?
Unless you're happy with a total collapse you'd best hope the PRICED IN meme is at least a little true
>Counter measures were put in place for the last few weeks
Too little, too late, fgt.
>projecting based on historical data even though quarantines started only recently
How retarded are you, Opa?
Don't forget people have heart attacks, get in car accidents and have babies every day and every one of them will be getting substandard care at the peak of this crisis.
Schools were closed the 23rd. Lockdown has been no more than a week
Gives you a baseline for reference.
Retard.
Trudeau told Canadians to come home. That's at least 1,000 cases there.
You can book a flight to Wuhan right now.
We're still allowing interstate and interprovince travel and international travel but taping up parks and closing hiking trails because we're retarded
700,000 happened yesterday
>just two more weeks and everyone will do bro trust me
Why can't you faggots stfu. Nobody cares about your retarded models. Kys.
>apples and oranges
both fruit, overweight people lead to obesity
Lol caterpillars
I will tell you that WA is fucked.
>coworker in Graham WA just called me saying he is sick
Our jobs involve fixing equipment in remote areas and all of the stores we get supplies from only let one customer in the building at a time (some businesses have even had us wait outside)
I have no idea how he could get this, a gas station perhaps? I know they aren't cleaning keypads
26.7% vs 42.4% obese
deal with it fatty
Why are people so gullible? Just check the stats for flu deaths this year and you'll see a huge drop in cases. That's because everything is being classified as coronavirus this year.
I'd post a link to the data but it gets called spam by this website.
Omg a coworker got sick! How ever could that happen! People never got sick before fauxorna viruz!
Of course. Can't infect more people than there are humans on the planet, duh.
Did it take you about 6 seconds to hammer this out in Excel, retard? How about accounting for the fact that cold and flu season is effectively over, and that it's plateauing in almost every country?
Alot of those are niggers and spics tho
You cared enough to post that
You can't deny that french fries and gravy will eventually lead to obesity though leaf
Give up the poutine or else