We shut down our economies for something we barely understand and which likely not really a threat

>There is no serologic test for coronavirus
>Which means we don't know who has had the virus and recovered
>Many cases are asymptomatic (we don't know the proportion yet)
>Current tests only measure ACTIVE infections
>So people might have had coronavirus in January and outside of China
>we can't be sure of that because we weren't testing anyone outside of China back then
>the number of people who were infected and showed no symptoms could be thousands of times higher than we think

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Other urls found in this thread:

sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954611111003416
cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html
sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/California-coronavirus-cases-march-numbers-surge-15158652.php
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

Are you still in denial that we're going to have it worse than Italy?

I'm not drawing any conclusions until April 2nd personally

our response has been so piss poor that if this virus was going to kill us all it would have done so by now

Are you in denial that every human on Earth has had Corona infections a dozen times in their life?

What is serologic?

If they really can't test for antibodies in recovered cases, your theory is sounding more and more and more plausible. This weekend i was considering crunching actual death data to test the theory that they've just classified a swath of normal pneumonia deaths as corona deaths and manufactured an entirely fictitious outbreak with no logistically possible test to prevent the public from realizing it.

I figured I'd just have to demonstrate that the worst hit areas are within 1 std dev of regular pneumonia deaths with this year's pneumonia + corona and also that this year's pneumonia is > 1 standard deviation lower than normal because they reclassified a chunk of them as corona.

Call it election rigging level proof that nobody will ever get convicted for but is obviously fucking true.

the only thing these people have to live for is the world ending. quite frankly they should be treated with the same discrimination as underage posters and banned

Italy has had a much higher rate of chronic respiratory diseases than the rest of the Western world for a long time
sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954611111003416

20% of the elderly population has asthma or bronchitis

we literally wont though
italy is a shithole with barely any hospitals

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Doesn't work that way. We won't be at the peak for several months in the US.

>Doesn't work that way.
all you have to show for it are tests that detect actively infected with 70% accuracy. in other words, you dont have shit nigger

I'll just wait and watch you nothingburger 2.0 posters roll through your stages of grief, thanks.

hmmm mmm le yes sirrrr i tip my hat too you my fellow goodman

Serologic = blood test for antibodies.

Look up studies on chronic respiratory diseases in Italy, compare that data with neighboring European countries. Italy has one of the worst rates. They were also having trouble with tuberculosis in 2018. Salvini blamed immigrants for that, which caused a anti-racist push back from the medical establishment.

Also: Chinese investors buying up companies in the country since 2015. Even Pirelli is now Chinese owned.

...

The disease is increasing 10-fold every ten days here in the US. I invite you to do the arithmetic for 100,000 cases now, 50 days later.

Are you stupid. People drop like flies.
Even young people die now. And you Americans are really fucked now because you didn't take it serious.

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It's a hoax, there is no doubt about it anymore, but by now everyone is too invested into it. Fake crisis with real consequences.

If their numbers are already fucked my theory is much harder to test. I've never worked with disease data so i was kinda expecting it's just pretty standard and consistent seasonal shit.

>We shut down our economies for something we barely understand

And that's a good thing.

We're testing more people too.
You don't really know the actual rate of increase of infections. You know the rate of increase of positive tests.

boomers will spend billions of dollars to save a boomer life

nice bate

How much did you invest in toilet paper?

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Bitorrorism has for been for long by far mor a threat than nuclear weapons.
It may cost millions to engineer a virus, well withing the means of even minor groups of wealthy individuals.
It was basically a matter of time until somebody engineers and releases something insane, like airborne rabies.
See there is virtually no resistance from the elites, despite losing trillions of money. They are better informed and it's much worse than you think.

* bioterrorism

Good luck with that as your grandpa drowns in his own fluids.

This. Happeningfags finally got an inch, and they're running a million miles with it. But we'll keep waiting two weeks, then another two weeks, then another two weeks,

Should be June in the US

If they open back up or half-ass it, 60% will get it and about 10% will die, and this is confirmed cases.

>There is no serologic test for coronavirus
really?

My Italian grandpa died last year at age 96, far exceeding Italy's mean life expectancy of 82.

People are proudly saying they do not want to consider Reason, do not want to stop panicking, explicitly saying that those who do so are guilty, and hoping to be under house arrest forever. Apocalyptic feeling, as in the real deal.

Really. They're just now trying to develop it.
cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html

What time last year?

March.

‘Bout tree fiddy.

I'll say this. I can't find deaths vs days charts anywhere. But the 2001 census whatever data says US averages 169 pneumonia deaths/day in a year. So call it 200ish. If this is all bullshit, they're reaching this level right about now.

So if the total hoax theory is to prove itself, in the next week or two they will have to really really really scramble to manufacture corona deaths to reach 500, 1000, 1500 per day. Even if it's a really bad flu i can't really see how it would break 300 deaths per day. Lying to the point of manufacturing exponential growth of the death rate will become impossible very soon.

There are plenty of experts speaking against the corona virus hoax but they don't get any air time. Even in my country our specialists already said that like any virus, Covid19 lasts very little on surfaces but despite this the media keeps repeating that it can last up to 10 or more days. They're obviously trying to put the population in a state of fear.

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You do know why I asked, right?

I think you're overestimating these people's intelligence. They just too dumb to manufacture a pandemic.
Most of what is happening now is due to:
>Panic
>Bill Gates and other simple minded philanthropists pouring money into infectious disease research (and demanding some "happenings" in return to show that their money was well spent)
>Government officials blindly believing simplistic models made by poorly trained epidemiologists
>Overall lack of understanding of statistics
>Boomers being confronted with their mortality
>Democrats in the US desperate to see a crisis before the election

I can guess why but one data point isn't enough to tell us anything interesting.

Oh i know. But i believe we're at like 200 deaths a day with bullshit ones already getting added like the ladder one. Lol.

But manufacturing another 2 weeks of convincing ones is basically impossible unless it's real. Just the presentation of the data i found just now is suspicious as fuck. Big red death tallies broken down by state and country. Then graphs of cases by time. Then hidden way down, very similar looking graphs of testing rates. It's pretty funny.

This entire thing may be quantitatively fueled by one single discrepancy. Counting deaths by actual deaths and counting cases by limited tested cases and comparing all this to regular diseases which have estimated case counts by accurate transmission estimates. The unknowable transmission estimates aggravated by bad testing conditions have them a whole universe of gray area to lie their asses off.

This is now a great time to test the global warming theory.

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>it's just a flu bro, just let it go, don't hurt the economy
>thousands of dying people storm the hospitals, the healthcare collapses in few days
>people go full panic mode, fight for their lives
>economy collapses even harder

>welp, at least we had two more weeks of fun before

Right.
The more we test, the lower the mortality rate gets. So to manufacture a crisis it's important to increase testing but not too much, preferably saving tests to people who are gravely ill to keep a high mortality rate. Most people don't understand survivorship bias and will believe that an absolute increase in the number of positive tests means that the pandemic is accelerating.

This whole thing is actually starting to feel like the Hillary polls. You sit down to try and look at the raw data and the wrongness of it all just punches you in the fucking face.

>The more we test, the lower the mortality rate gets. So to manufacture a crisis it's important to increase testing but not too much, preferably saving tests to people who are gravely ill to keep a high mortality rate. Most people don't understand survivorship bias and will believe that an absolute increase in the number of positive tests means that the pandemic is accelerating.
This can't be repeated enough.
Where I live they only give tests to people who pass a screening that almost certainly guarantees that they have the virus (you have to exhibit at least 3 symptoms from their list) and even then only about 30% are actual carriers. Local media reports extensively on the "massive increase in cases" without bothering to note that the increase in confirmed cases is SOLELY a result of an increase in testing.

The vast majority of people who get this will end up like Rand Paul, either completely asymptomatic or with mild illness that's a cross between the common cold and the regular flu.

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What we are witnessing is a global coup by elites to implement a new world order where they will rule unopposed. While Coronavirus exists it affects only elderly and is a bit more virulent form of flu.The hysteria blown by the mass media and social media agents served to justify extreme measures like lockdown which will NEVER be revoked and will stay with us.
Further measures will include:

Compulsory vaccinations-said vaccines will lower test among certain groups and lead to sterilisation. Scientists will decree that it was a price worth paying and white people were violent anyway.

Digital currency-all your money will stored online and controlled by authorities. As will your expenses and where you are spending money.

Digital ID-to use internet you will need to use a digital id confirming your real life identity. Anonymous posting and usage of internet will be banned in name of fight against "fake news about coronavirus". Without record of your vaccinations in the digital id employers won't hire you and you will be banned from travelling and public spaces. All non-state and non-corporate cryptocurrancies will be banned.

Spread the word, look behind motives. Do not believe what media tell you.

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Visit my theory on this whole thing
>
so much this, we're losing our freedoms on such a huge nothingburger

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I like this. The similarity of the testing graph vs the cases graph left me asking wtf that implies.

>does this mean everybody has it?

That's why i started by asking about the sterologic aspect. Your description of the testing criteria explains it very well. They're intentionally weeding out asymptomatic cases because by the time the testing ramps up, now, they're no longer testing everyone you've come into contact with.

>We


Ah yes like how your old grandma, sorry, a 'boomer' created the current state of affairs. Yes, great analysis

my whole immediate family had coronavirus back in november. its been going on for months already.

You are catching on, the final redpill is to realize that nobody is actually sick with this alledged "covid 19"

If this shit was circulating through the system as early as they said it was, and it really has a 1 month incubation and extremely infectious, we would have seen cities collapsing and millions of people dying already.

But we haven't. Nobody knows anybody thats actually sick with this shit, and now everybody thats catching a cold or a slight fever is claiming its corona. This is a giant spook and its an excuse to shut down the economy and take away freedoms and i believe this is the first step jews are taking to transition to their end game planet.

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Yep. They're using the "shortage of testing kits" excuse to triage patients and only give the tests to people they think will give them positive results.

Here's an example of a typical news story from my area about the outbreak:
sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/California-coronavirus-cases-march-numbers-surge-15158652.php

Notice that the overall number of cases is still extremely low (3k out of 42m) and they don't give any information about how many people have been tested. Instead they focus only on the idea that the number of confirmed cases is doubling at a fast rate, a fact that is meaningless without also including information about the rate at which the testing is increasing.
From what I can gather from other stories the level of testing is quadrupling or more, so a doubling infection rate would actually be lower than might have been expected given earlier predictions.

It's a combination of statistical illiteracy on the part of journalists and an attempt at spreading FUD to get clicks.

Correct. To add, I don't think it's an issue of a conspiracy so much as limited supplies trying to be put to best use. I have a few friends who work in nursing and who are first responders, and their problem is that they have a very limited supply of tests so they've been instructed not to "waste" them unless a patient exhibits fairly extreme symptoms already.

The hysteria seems to be largely being created by the media's statistical ignorance and inability to analyze data. You could create the exact same panic around the common flu if you presented that information in the same way. Far more annual deaths and an enormous rate of infection, but most people who get it are perfectly fine as long as they drink fluids and take it easy.

We're caught up in a bizarre mania right now that will end up being an embarrassing footnote in the history books in a few years.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

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But what a great way to hide another huge bailout of Wall Street and those TBTF banks.
Instead of asking why we have to bail out those gangsters again, we're so scared all we think about is buying TP.

>You are catching on, the final redpill is to realize that nobody is actually sick with this alledged "covid 19"

Disagree 100%
Hundreds of thousands already have it or have had it and are either asymptomatic or present as simply having a normal respiratory infection.

The virus is real, and is extremely infectious, however it is not even remotely as deadly as the current statistics indicate. When all is said and done the death rate will roughly match the flu or be a bit lower, and much like the flu it will mostly kill the old and infirm.

>But what a great way to hide another huge bailout of Wall Street and those TBTF banks.
>But what a great way to hide another huge bailout of Wall Street and those TBTF banks.
>But what a great way to hide another huge bailout of Wall Street and those TBTF banks.
>But what a great way to hide another huge bailout of Wall Street and those TBTF banks.
>But what a great way to hide another huge bailout of Wall Street and those TBTF banks.

This.
Jews are making billions on the stock market right now, betting on and against spikes and crashes. While tens of millions in the middle class suffer the Wall Street slimeballs are getting even richer.

Yeah, basically. There's now a sunk cost fallacy going on where everyone is too proud/embarrassed to admit they got swept up by this mass-hysteria

>>So people might have had coronavirus in January and outside of China
there definitely were. 10,000 chinks flew from wuhan all over the world. in January alone. this shit had been spreading since at least november. this is probably why Italy got Changed so hard, it's a big tourist attraction for chinks.

Understandable. user, it's conspiracy. Honestly. I don't say this based on quantitative analysis of medical data. I say this based on analysis of metrics in other fields. This financial collapse is, i believe, manufactured. The first drop was understandable, continued drops as China reopened supply lines are 100% preposterous. The media coverage of fear mongering is kinda unfortunately normal but that implies another level of agenda'd manipulation proven by the last 5 year's of reality vs media fearmongering.

You are blaming state by state response to hysteria based on bad analysis. This hysteria very conveniently after the fact justifies the continued inexplicable market hysteria i mentioned.

The biggest Hollywood names are also adding to this hysteria with very well timed cases and really making a spectacle of themselves.

It's a batshit style of analysis. But it is real. When you see a multifront convenient coincidental effort, all in the same direction, from all of the most powerful factions and information outlets with a history of emotional manipulation, believing it's all coincidence is a very academic, ivory tower, world and people are good kinda mindset that seems naive to the cynical.

Around here these kinds of situations are labeled as, 'its the Jews'. This is very deep and intelligent assessment independent of actual Jewish ethnicity and actually reflective of a game theoretic instinctive understanding of manipulation and conspiracy. This is what pol does. And it's powerful and it's beautiful.

Welcome to the ocean of piss that is always right. You're here forever.

I got the virus at an american military base 10 years ago.

the Germans are saying 30% are asymptomatic. 50% will exhibit mild symptoms, 15% moderate and 5% severe.
they're only testing people in high risk groups which virtually guarantees only severe cases are being reported.
so there really could be over a million people infected with only around 1000 dead. we're talking swine flu tier mortality.

then consider how they're releasing testing data, there is a massive backlog. I could have been tested 10 days ago but when they release the data I'm a "new case". I'm not really a new case because I've had the virus for days and would be well into the recovery process
however when it's reported oh no it's getting WORSE!!!

there is a lot of massive fuckery going on.
pretty much, I thought it was bullshit until I saw what was going on in Italy and thought oh shit, better take this seriously. however I think I know why they're doing it and it's not at all that terrible.

Ok i dunno when my ip changed. Prob glowniggers hijacking my device. I'm the guy you responded to here

I can't stand anymore all my boomer parents panicking because they watch tv several hours a day. MSM do everything they can to make people panic, to scare them and make them accept confinement it's obvious and yet they buy all this shit

>The USA still doesn't have bill gates in custody in gitmo
this country is so fucking beyond cucked it's unimaginable you are committing suicide/offering yourself up for human sacrifice if you stay here what a fucking shithole

The cuck who developed that model has been slowly walking his numbers back all week.

EXACTLY!!!!!!!

>oh no no no. Just innocent mistake!!!! Plz millions of now unemployed normies and poorest people on earth, plz no curbstomp me.

Fraudulent academics are the lowest tier of humanity.