WHAT THE FUCK 12% DEATH RATE

Get this NPC Bullshit out of here
A: Death Rate in South Korea by the offical numbers is 4% not 0.6%
B: Italy has nearly as many cases as China's 'official numbers' and has a death rate of 44%

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they don't want to lose face.
Literally allow atrocities of all kinds to go on because bringing attention to it would bring embarrassment on the CCP and undermine their legitimacy. As the last couple months have shown us, the CCP considers their image to be a more important consideration than the lives of people all over the world.
Fuck China forever. May Xi Jinping boil in piss.

Virus is gonna explode in next three days. : youtu.be/n4no04822NQ

That is by using the Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered) calculation, which as I said, overestimates the death rate. According to that calculation, the US currently has a death rate of 60+%. I promise you that is not the actual death rate.

Start at 1:04

your response to
>B: Italy has nearly as many cases as China's 'official numbers' and has a death rate of 44%
???
No response? OK then faggot.
How about this logic for you. How do they calculate High-school graduation rates of black kids? Do they even look at the number of black kids currently in highschool? No, they look at how many of them have graduated and how many of them did not
get fucked

>1. Deaths/(Deaths + Recovered.) This will overestimate the death rate early into the pandemic because deaths are closed out earlier than recoveries. In some countries you see this rate as high as 70%.
>2. Deaths/Total cases. Early in the pandemic this will UNDERESTIMATE the death rate because some of the total cases currently pending are certainly going to die.
Holy shit nigger, you copy pasted my comment (or perhaps rewrote it in your own words, I don't remember what I wrote exactly). God bless.

How stupid can you be? Think about the time period. It's faster to die of the disease than it is to recover, and it infects people with weaker immune systems at a higher rate. The longer the virus exists in a population, the lower the lethality will be. Florida had above a 50% lethality rate for a while because every case was in the same nursing home.

>There are 2 ways to calculate death rate.
And both are wrong. You can estimate using Bayesian inference.

In most places they can't test everyone that walks through the door with even the most mild of symptoms. We have no idea how many people have actually contracted this and got over it until test kits are so wide spread that they can start testing everyone that walks into a doctors office.

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You're comparing Italy's Deaths/(Deaths + Recovered) number to China's Deaths/Total cases number.

Early in the pandemic, China had a very high Deaths/(Deaths + Recovered) rate as well. As more cases close out, this number is going to fall dramatically.

It's still a very deadly virus, but it's not "Going to kill a majority of the population" deadly. It's "Going to kill millions of people in the US alone" deadly.

Understanding this is to think of it like election night.

The resolved cases is like # of precincts reporting. When you have 2% of the vote in, you can’t draw firm conclusions about the final tally.

It's my own words. I've been trying to get an accurate as possible estimate of what the death toll in the US would look like if we treated this like the flu, because I'd like to know if the government's actions are a massive overstep.

My estimate is 1.1 million to 3.3 million if we get optimal medical care, and up to double that if we don't (which we won't.) So I think quarantines even harsher than what we're currently experiencing are warranted.

have you literally been asleep the past whole month?
Every day there are multiple headlines of new cases of dead without previous condition in the range of age from 20 to 40 years

Fuck me it could be 2k in 2 days

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It Is not, you know that your grandparents buy shit and eat too, right?

"Orientals"?
You must be under 65 to post here.
Back to faceberg with you.

you don't need to give him shit, he has actually a fair point, the two ways to calculate death rate give (obviously) a lower and upper bound for the real death rate, since some of the open cases will recover, while some will die.
read his explanation again and stop being such a massive cumguzzling faggot

repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?refresh_ce

"The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion."

Off my money, indirectly

>It's my own words
Holy shit, we think alike. Finally someone with a fucking brain.

You cant possibly know the fucking death rate based on a small sampling. Go fuck yourself your retarded nigger faggot.

>Every day there are multiple headlines
fake news

Listen faggot
you throw 100 niggers into a death gauntlet hallway where there are spinning blades and poison darts and shit

10 of them come out alive, 20 of them have died and the other 70 are still trying to escape.

Observing this, what do you think the current death rate is?

I just want you fucking MIGA boomer faggots to die. You're so fucking dumb and gullible it's actually astounding.

That's the whole world's resolved cases you mongoloid

"Bayesian inference" is not magic, user. Your "Bayesian inference" of the death rate is going to depend on the parameters you put into your model. And your model could be very wrong.

South Korea's empirical data is pretty reliable. But tell me, what is your bayesian inference model and what do you think the death rate is?

It’s not zero but is a significantly less percentage than elderly. Most of the young people who have died had co-morbitities. The 21 year old who died in Spain, for instance, was found to have Leukemia after he died.

lol these are just the "closed" cases. why don't you wait until the rest of the people recover and then do your calculations.

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>That's the whole world's resolved cases you mongoloid
The whole world has stopped testing you nigger.

>WHAT THE FUCK 12% DEATH RATE
it's highly contagious so it infects very old people who end up dying from it.

It could get worse. Maybe 20%.

Wrong. That's just what you've been told. You don't even fucking know if there is a real virus. None of us do.

No country is doing any real testing except S. Korea and Singapore, so what those stats really are is of 107k people who had the virus bad enough they needed a doctor (and actually got a test), 12% of them died. That's still an alarmingly high number but not the whole story since again, nobody is doing real testing because every single country is short on tests

Why stop at 100?
Rookie numbers...

fuck off shill

This website isn't even real it is all a construct to spy on you run while you still can!

Wtf, in the beginning they said it's like 3%. That's a HUGE leap.

That's not true. It's killed people with very bad immune systems regardless of their age.

It's not that high. Its easy to test for the deaths because they people ill enough to die show up to hospitals for care. And they're tested for Covid, found positive and then die.

However testing for people who are positive but aren't going to die is way harder. We have no idea how many people have had this but have not been tested, it could be a huge number. Specifically in the lower ages. Only something like 0.5% of kids under 18 years of age actually show symptoms, so there's a whole section of the population that get nothing more than a cough or nothing at all, and are never recorded.

I personally think something like 2% death rate overall will be an upper bound on the deaths when all is said and done.

It’s actually similar to the flu in terms of being contagious. They originally showed a 2.2 people infected per source but that quickly went down to seasonal flu numbers once they had more data.

Measles, Mumps, Norovirus and HIV all have higher rates.

I know. I've been trying to get on as many lists as possible for many years now.

> mild cases go undetected and are not reported thus inflating the death rate...

Yeah, you can't explain logic to niggers.

well go LARP somewhere else faggot

This is incorrect. The fact is that there's some uncertainty over how contagious the coronavirus is. Nearly every estimate places it as signficantly more contagious than the flu. (Keep in mind, the more contagious it is, the less lethal it likely is.)

It likely has a larger R0 than the 2.2-2.6 initially thought, up around 2.8 and perhaps as high as 3.2.

SeeEssentially they randomly tested 3,000 people in Italy and found that of the ones who tested positive, 50-75% showed no symptoms.

I’ve been saying that these people have had exposure for a while and we’re starting to see that with all the numbers coming out. It’s especially true when you see that the death percentages in the US are dropping the more testing and data we get.

The only ones LARPing are the people pushing this hoax virus.

You will expect the Deaths/(Deaths + Recovered) number to drop, even if you caught all asymptomatic cases, and expect the Deaths/Total Cases number to rise, even if you caught all asymptomatic cases. The dropping numbers do not necessarily have anything to do with the asymptomatic cases being caught.

The initial transmission may be 2.2 but they quickly found out that it starts to diminish quickly because their theory it stays in the air is actually false. It’s transferred more by large droplets, which typically fall much faster and don’t stay in the air for hours like initially thought.

The other issue is despite high rates, it slows down rapidly once enough people in the surrounding region get it. This can also be completely false given such a large population actually show no symptoms. In which case it behaves much like H1N1, and will likely infect a ton of people without them knowing.

yeah I mean it's really very hard to tell exact numbers, we won't know accurately for sure, until there's an antibody test and we can look at large sections of the population and see who had it in the past but simply didn't know it.

Right at the very early stages of the outbreak around early feb both me and a colleage developed fever and a cough (flu symptoms) for about 7-8 days and took the week off work. We have no idea yet if we had the disease of if it was seasonal flu. It was very early in the spread and our area (Norfolk in the UK) has only to this day had 24 confirmed cases, which was only 1-3 cases for week prior. So who the hell knows, the number of actual infections could be 50x higher than we know, or maybe only 1.2x higher, either way it's almost certainly higher.

The only thing that counters this data is the fact that deaths lag infections by 3(ish) weeks, so we do have to be careful that whatever the infected rate peaks at, the death rate wont peak until 3 weeks after.

Are you sure that you're not misinterpreting an analysis of the effect of quarantine? Because the R0 value is not independent of the social interaction of the population. They may be saying that the R0 value is dropping in the face of social distancing.

Also, again, South Korea likely has a very good estimate of death rates in the face of asymptomatic and mild cases, because they do very broad testing independent of the presence of symptoms.

There’s issues with these numbers though when you compare completed cases. Depending on country, legally you have to consider most cases won’t get reported as cured due to stuff like HIPAA. Also, given that we’re still in this, the only “complete” ones you’ll usually see the quickest are deaths, so it skews the numbers a lot.

Inflection points in the growth ratios of cases usually dictate when things will level off. We need to see a 1.0 to know when we’re about to tail off, and we’re slowly decreasing. Last I saw worldwide it’s ~1.21. This may get push out significantly now that more people are getting tested at a faster pace than before.

That being said, we’d be in the millions before this tampers down, but that would also paint the picture that like H1N1, we’ve had significantly high levels of infected people without knowing they had it.

The main point I’m trying to make is S Korea’s numbers are probably much closer to reality of how deadly this is but we’re still missing large portions world wide. You have essentially an iceberg right now where you see the top 10% of really sick or mild cases, but we have yet to fully discover the 90% under the water of completely asymptomatic or misdiagnosed people

Most people who are exposed don't get symptoms.
The ones that do are those who are already weak as shit, so among weak degenerated trash, a 10-20% death rate would be logical.

Moral of the story, don't be unhealthy and/or old as fuck.

No one has any idea of what's happening in China, Iran, and Russia.
This should be a clear signal for everyone else.

I don't think it was ever "thought" that droplets large enough to transmit stayed in the air for hours. That's why there's a general 2m rule if you're out in public because it's not airborne in the sense that the air generally is effected, but droplets expelled can contain it but hit the ground super fast.

The r0 is not some inherent value of the virus, it's always dependent on how people behave and how many people in a popualtion are viable hosts. This is why herd immunity works because as the total number infected grows and are immune to re-infection (at least in the short term) it means the number of viable hosts drops and so the r0 drops. Herd immuntity is essentially what happens when the r0 drops below 1 and it can't sustain itself through transmission to other people. Basically at that point the virus is "dying", every day it infects less people than the day before.

This user gets it

That they don’t actually test. China was just reported to have completely stop testing people for it, and I’m sure Russia basically doesn’t give a shit.