Previous thread: Pic: we see a drastic drop in mobile accounts in all major Chinese telecoms.
==Background==
Due to the nature of Chinese telecoms, your national ID is bound to your mobile number account, which is in turn bound to your Alipay account, the one-stop mobile app that manages all monetary transactions, including banking.
If you lose it you lose access to Alipay, which is basically how the Chinese pay for everything from chewing gum to haircuts to groceries.
People don't just cancel their phone numbers because of that. Even if you change your mobile phone number it's a hassle in Mainland China because of that.
When phone number accounts are not paid for a certain period, or if some other actor (relatives? gov?) shut down your personal account related to the country's database, the mobile phone accounts are automatically cancelled.
==Counterarguments==
Anons from the previous thread raised the issue of multiple SIMs owned by a single person. Whilst that may be the case for business or other reasons, if you assume everybody in China has 3 numbers, it still doesn't explain the anomaly here.
China Mobile alone reports a disappearance of 7,254,000. The actual number of coronavirus deaths may be up to 14,472,000 if we take the three major telecoms in China.
Some user also tried to compare it with the (((official gov stats))) for electricity/water. There is a dip but it could also be due to industry rather than residential use.
Its super late, but am interested to see how this progresses.
Saved URLs, and photos. Potentially sharing on social media for gigz n shits.
Jordan Cooper
Good point. I just messaged a friend who was born in CN. I asked about whether most people have two SIMs. He said it's not 'that' common - but in the professional world it is not uncommon for users to have both a Personal and Work number. If this is the case, it's not due to Chinese New Year. There is not the same variation in previous years. Is there anywhere we can get travel stats - those exiting CN? Possibly from Airlines?
This would explain why Chinese cities are still empty.
Dylan Phillips
what if people in china got laid off and had to cancel their cell phone? aren't we going broke at some point too? will you still be paying for your phone when the number is ur acc get low?
What if they literally just confiscated all the cell phones to prevent outside communication, like videos inside the hospitals, etc? China doesn’t give a fuck
Gabriel Rogers
Good shit OP. My only question is how in the fuck did they hide millions of deaths, I know they are crafty but millions of deaths is huge.
Maybe. They certainly aren’t above that. They’re animals. But it’s not bc of Cornhole-19
Andrew Stewart
I don't think they provide those on their company websites. These are mobile subscriptions though, not landlines. That could be one possibility, but I'm personally not that convinced due to how the Chinese economic ecosystem is so reliant on your mobile phone. You practically lose your wallet if you don't have it.
Layed off, locked in apartment with no income for two months. My first priority? Pay my cell phone bill.
Levi Carter
Could be. I also wonder if it might be due to everyone not getting paid thanks to economic shut down and not being able pay the bill anymore. But we‘ll see about that if the numbers go up again, now that „everything‘s going back to normal“.
Ethan James
The missing accounts aren't from deaths, they're because civilians were drafted into war.
This is plausible as some in professional fields do have a dedicated work number. While, on the personal level, funding a second number might not seem like a lot, on a corporate scale, if you can halt your employee's cells, this overall might save quite a bit considering most business was shutdown between ~Jan 20th through Feb 10th. I'd still like to see if we can find other sources of data that might correlate.
Adrian Wood
this
Jaxon Harris
Found it People cancelled mobile numbers in fear of being traced by the gov and arrested for leaving a quarantined zone They probably went to family houses in the countryside, hiding there
Jace Thompson
fucking finally i have been saying this but nobody payed attention, needed to find some info on these accounts
Gavin Wright
Maybe new users just weren't signing up during the outbreak? Everything's a "net" gain/loss, any data on new signups and cancelled accounts specifically?
Jordan Thomas
This makes a lot of sense.
Henry Taylor
that would be retarded they can get traced anyway.
Sebastian Jones
>That could be one possibility, but I'm personally not that convinced due to how the Chinese economic ecosystem is so reliant on your mobile phone. You practically lose your wallet if you don't have it. Agree. There are some professionals with a work number - and the companies may've cancelled these during the shutdown. But a cell-phone is pretty much a necessity (and probably more-so in China). I doubt anyone would cancel their personal number.
Justin Perry
i like this answer more than A MILLION CHINESE WERE VANNED
Michael Long
You would in China, because you use your mobile phone account to do all monetary transactions.
I shared your findings with some friends. Good work, user.
Gabriel Flores
First chart for Jan/Feb goes into the negatives though. That indicates that they were "losing" customers. It was not just a matter of them not getting any new customers.
Jacob Taylor
Maybe those were the people that were posting so they terminated their accounts
Evan Russell
counter argument here, then why is China sending testing kits to the rest of the EU, China always puts it's self first, yes they are capable of lying about their recovery but they always put themselves first, they would never send medical supplies and testing kits they could have used on themselves.
Owen Reed
medical supplies already were late after shipping was halted for a bit. Don't forget china is just the manufacturer.
John Richardson
Because they are worried about the economic warfare going on, and Trump’s inevitable convincing of Merkel not to build the Russian gas pipeline. Putin will ultimately bend the knee,
James Richardson
They don't care about china. They only care what people think about china. Good pr take priority over good policy.
Angel Brown
they send older equipment and supplies to look good on a global scale and appear to have things under control.
Dylan Garcia
That's a valid counterargument, but you also have to remember that this is the country that had party officials hoarding truckloads of masks for themselves as Wuhan went into lockdown. Sometimes it's important to differentiate "putting the Party first" and "putting the country first" when we look into who's benefiting.
>landlines spam call centers use even hundreds of mobiles lines per employee to avoid being identified easily and listed in antispam lists in "who's calling" websites
Andrew Stewart
>People cancelled mobile numbers Doesn't make sense. Why not just leave their mobile turned off somewhere, rather than going through the trouble of canceling?
Zachary Thomas
PR move. The commies sense full well that their future is precarious.
Liam Ortiz
Hm, you have a point. It's hard to confirm though since the nature of these companies mean they won't publish their operation details.
The rate of cancellations could remain steady, and the number of new customers drop, and the figures would look like they do.
For example: (normal month) >12 million new accounts >10 million cancellations >2 million net gain (month under lockdown) >3 million new accounts >10 million cancellations >7 million net loss
Parker Collins
i think those anons are right tho i have no idea and couldn't even speculate on the numbers but from what we have been told at least 5 million left wuhan IF a small part of them canceled their subscription to prevent tracking together with various businesses that canceled employees phones it would be enough to explain the numbers
Cameron Foster
with 10% death rate (italy is 8.5%) that's 70M to 150M infected 5% deathrate, 140M to 300M. That's legit possible. French media already raised the possibility of a million+ chinese already infected
Hudson Rivera
>They probably went to family houses in the countryside, hiding there if that so, they would got stopped by local villagers leader and got beaten to death. it's nearly impossible to not getting traced, they still get arrested cuz every area have checkpoints
Charles Roberts
lurking. wow
Grayson Fisher
that was after the fact bootleg polack there was more than enough time to safely transition to the country side they called the quarantine 48h in advance, enough time to book and board several international flights
Joshua Young
Surely they would track by IMEI though so the number does not matter?
Camden Morales
I can only pray that you guys weather through the upcoming storm. Have those who went to the Smurf party died yet?
exactly what i was thinking but as in the west the normie is a dumb fuck and im sure there are enough chinks that are dumb as shit and can't into tech GPS data and connection is always there to track you down no sim card needed if the device is known
That's a good point. Any stats fags know whether there'd be a good way to get approximations here?>IF a small part of them canceled their subscription to prevent tracking together I don't think that's likely on a personal number. A phone is basically a necessity there to pay for shit. I know BIG corporate companies there who literally use WeChat to login to their corporate systems. No other sign in options. >various businesses that canceled employees phones Definitely plausible.
