Requesting All Math Nerds

In reality, more people will die from the virus after the system is overloaded or urbies go out in the woods to bug out, but realizing they already have it and die. Fuck urbies.

Yes goy trust me, soon it will claim over 6,000,000 lives! the only way to prevent this, goy, is to give up your liberties! Trust me goy!

>what is exponential growth?
youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

Take this vaccine goy

This

The infection rate would account for new infections on a exponential level right? It's just an average of the total. Some variance of course...

This is OP, IDK how tf to even use Yas Forums the correct way. I just remember it seemed totally unmoderated and degenerate back in my high school days. So I thought I'd seek the unfiltered opinions and thoughts of you all. Any suggestions on where else to seek like minded folks. If this is not a secure platform show me to an intermediary. Reddit, youtube, twitter, google are all policed by scripts and truth is covered faster than we can produce it on those sites...

Maths teacher here.

OP, the problem is you are introducing irrelevant units. Metres squared is only useful if you have deaths per person per metre squared. And we don’t.

Expected US deaths calculation, from your numbers, would be 327m x 0.03 = 9.81m

>common core at its finest
Oh wait its a fuckin paki in bongistan

What are you talking about meters? Its M for million

Exponential growth doesn't work that way user. Each new round of infections increases non-linearly. Thinking doubling rate or y +x^2, not Y=mx+b. China was using a false polynomial (or mixing an exponential and linear component (x^2 + mx + b) to hide the real numbers.

>y=x^2 not y=mx +b
sorry for the typo

>Maths teacher here.
imagine my doubt
He's a liar or a common core teacher, kekkest

Statistician here. You cannot deduce the lethality of the virus from the mortality observed in those who were tested positive. You could only do that if you had identified all cases. That definitely not the case. They estimate up to 75% are asymptomatic. The chances these are included in your calculation are slim and they are falling as tests become scarce.

Also you need to be clear how you define a corona death. Just because someone dies and had the virus does not mean the virus killed them. People die all the time.
To gauge the impact you need to compare current deaths per million to say deaths per million last year during the same time.
so to summarize: humanity is fucking stupid and fails at basic math.

>secure platform
>on the internet
KEK. The closest you'll get is emails encrypted with PGP, but even that has vulnerabilities. Maybe you could find some chan on the deepweb, or post on infinitychan (if it's even online right now) through Tor.

It hasn't spread everywhere yet you dumb fucking retard

You're extrapolating off literally the first serious week of the spread. Just two major cities.

So, how can you detemine COVID's exponential rate?

I'm terrible at math but my gut has always been good to me... I was just trying my best to prove to myself that it's not even close to what they are calling it

We can't. We have no idea how many people are infected. Probably a lot more people than we realize, because it's mild as fuck and most people barely show any symptoms. There's a bunch of fear mongering surrounding it but it's just like having a cold or flu.

Jew.

worldometers.info/coronavirus/
It's increasing exponentially and we don't even have enough test kits. Rate of incubation is two weeks. Most people haven't even been social distancing more than a few days across the nation.
Watch it explode like it just did in Michigan.

Hey bitch I said in the post I don't got it figured the fuck out.

Watch the video I posted.
Look at the current trend of cases
worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I believe it's infectious and the video makes sense. I think the important bit though is the mortality rate. I don't mind getting sick. I can keep to myself. I don't understand why the quarantine isn't directed solely at the elderly and/or sick at this point. It seems all the funding and care could go to those that would be actually hurt and our economy doesn't have to get it's nuts dragged across the pavement.

Look mom I posted it again. Stop acting like you shit about anything

I can give it a try. I'd appreciate it if one of you actual /MathNerdAnons/ could correct me if I'm wrong.
US pop. × said infection rate = number infected (327,000,000 × 0.000043 = 14,061). Then - number infected × approx. death rate = number dead (14,061 × 0.03 = 421.83).
Thus, approximately 421 people will die.

>Ireland
>Google HQ troll at home with nothing better to do
>ID jG
Is that you Jen? You're cute and all, but a little old for me.

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That's what I came to but the critique of this is that the virus spreads exponentially and it's literally impossible to say how many will be totally infected. I think there must be someway to come to a reasonable hypothesis on total but I certainly couldn't account for the variables.

we still dont know how long your own antibodies will prevent reinfection.. it could be 12 months to 18 months, like influenza. it could be much long or it could be much shorter.

200 deaths already, you moronic nothingburger faggot. it's killing 50% of those infected.

That is, if the rate of infection doesn't get any higher; but given the exponential increase in other regions, it'll most likely go up before shit's contained and whatnot.

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WRONG. 421.83 is closer to 422 than 421 so 422 will die. Not 421. LEARN 2 MATH STUPID RETARD

Stop spreading this kike propaganda claiming the virus is spreading exponentially

No. The reason the reaction is so extreme is because flooding the hospitals will collapse the economy faster than self-isolation. Officials realized this a few days too late and the later inflection point of the logistic curve is gonna take us orders of magnitude higher in terms of growth rate in the first few weeks.

I mean I think something drastic would be say 100x that number right, your brain as well as mine says that would be nutty. 42,800. Well what number does your gut say? I don't think the total dead from corona this year passes 1500. That's just my gut.

Sir, honestly you should leave. That's like incredibly stupid thing to say at this point.

i think its impossible to tell at this point,,, wait until everyone is unemployed. and they are coofing in lineups for communist bread

>math nerds
>3rd grade math

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the WHO already said iceberg effect isn't true. there are NOT thousands of mild cases running around. its killing at a massive rate, and we have irresponsible nothingburgers like you still downplaying it. i get you hate boomers man, but just accept the truth.

I mean it could be my brother but that doesn't really matter. Who cares if everyone in the world got a cough for 2 weeks. That's not the part the propagandists care about either. They want you to think freedom or death.

Ashkenazi Jew here. The statistician is right.

It's also worth considering other metrics, like the percentage of people who suffer long-term or permanent harm of some kind, or who require hospitalization. The numbers aren't in yet, but both may be much more frequent than for other seasonal illnesses, including for young people, even if it's still likely a low risk for young people.

there are so many variables at this point.. everyone is ordered to stay home.. niggers go out lootin and shootin...

Is he going to coom his last coof? Why is he containing his coof?

They said that would show this week if our timeline mirrored Italy's. That didn't happen.

this guy is fucking dumb as a bag of hammers

Fuck WHO, and if you believed that there were no hidden asymptomatic cases than the total death count would be close to 500.

Right now in the US its 217 deaths and 125 recovered. A lot of mild symptoms in the current cases, but that's way over a 50% case fatality rate. The risk is that those mild cases will be come more severe.

The most evident truth in this thread so far

>(((WHO)))

serious answer:

infectious diseases are approximated using a first order differential equation where there first derivative of a function y equals some constant a multiplied by the number e raised to the quantity kt. y prime is the instantaneous population infection increase with respect to time. a is the current people infected. k is the growth of the disease. t is the time.

Sad thing is, you don't have to be a math genius to know the outcome. How fast people get sick does not matter. People do not develop effective antibodies against this disease. Those who recover will simply get the disease again and again until they die.

Literally the only hope for humanity right now is developing a vaccine that is effective against not only the current strain of the virus, but also all mutations of it. There are really only 2 companies that have significant funding behind them and have experience working on SARS style vaccinations. Neither company has ever developed a working vaccine to ANY illness, let alone this Chinese developed biological weapon. Yes, this is a biological weapon, which is one reason it was being called the "novel" coronavirus, as in the structure of the virus is novel and not seen except through gene manipulation. You can determine this by looking at the genetic code.

This post will be censored eventually, but you have a right to know the full gravity of the situation.

Hug your loved ones. Remember the good times. Make your peace and repent to God.

youtube.com/watch?v=WYH0LskZWVg

That wouldn't even line up with the Italian numbers or anywhere else in the world.

Where did they say that?
Do you have a source?
Because nothing I've consulted has given a strict timeline other than exponential growth going forward. And we're not at the end of the week. Michigan went from 100 cases to over 300 in one day.

funny meme

Ugh, then why isn't China a pile of bodies yet?

worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
c'mon man. I'm being nice and spoonfeeding this to you, but you're gonna have to meet me halfway at some point.

The numbers will be about 1% of population infected and 0.5-1% of them die. Also this infection will not go anywhere, you'll just get used to it as you are used to common cold and flu.

If you google it now, like right now, before they scrub their mistake you will see some major news players with their stories dating back to last week.

Dude, it is. They just have an incredible censorship network.

There are probably 100000+ infections in the US already what the fuck are these numbers

Haha fune
Generally speaking, you don't round up when accounting for individuals; but yeah, idek whether it'd be correct to round up or down for this particular calculation. I'm only 18 so I have very limited knowledge of mathematics in general ig (bit out of my league here).

Yeah, I added that after. I could probably muster up some roughly accurate calculations, but it's almost 3 in the morning and I'm fucking sleepy.
I'll give it a go tomorrow morning, unless some other user already figures it out before then (some nigga prolly will ).

Tell me what to google.
Give me a link.

No I see that but the people who are infected aren't dead yet. So I'd count them as alive. Recovered could be slow because they might not consider you recovered until they release you or something. What's the standard for recovered status?

>standard for recovered status
We don't have an antibody test yet, so we can't tell whether someone has been exposed and their immune system has developed a defense, but we can infer based on who tested positive and isn't exhibiting symptoms "anymore."
It's all a pretty rough approximation right now, but the numbers still don't look good.

google "US infections and deaths will mirror italy's"

The death rate of SARS is unambiguous, it’s 10% without respirators, 20% without. That is the true percentage of infected that will die, simple as that. The death rate here is the same as China averaging at 7.5% in the statistics given by governments although they like you deftly claim it’s half that. The media and government analysis is a silly trick, they divide the number of cases by the number of deaths to reach a mortality rate as a percentage but since the disease spreads in a downward pyramid shape that includes a massive number of ongoing cases that have neither survived nor died of Corona and these are counted as survived.

>*10% with respirators

I'll admit I remember seeing similar headlines.
We're going a little slower, but keep in mind that a few days changes the rate of growth drastically. Let me see if I can find an image.

There we go

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We'll I need to get some sleep but I appreciate you actually talking. I think we sit on different sides about the severity but what you say has brought some perspective. Love you brother.

We'll I need to get some sleep but I appreciate you actually talking. I think we sit on different sides about the severity but what you say has brought some perspective. Love you brother.

>burgerland advances to 5th grade math.
Don't worry you'll learn how to take a percentage of a portion next year.

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The infection rate in the US by the end of the year is going to be a lot higher than that without a doubt, even if the death rate may remain pretty low (hopefully). 10x that amount of people were infected with the flu last year, and this may be more contagious than the flu, especially right now.

It is pretty likely to come back and we might get used to it like the flu, but once there's a vaccine I think a lot of governments may heavily incentivize or enforce vaccination. Maybe "receive your $1,200 check for 1 additional month if you get vaccinated" or something. And that should hopefully start the path to it becoming a rare occurrence indefinitely.

If the vaccine-provided immunity doesn't last long enough for the herd immunity to nearly snuff the virus out, or if any fast-spreading vaccine-evading mutation appears, then it probably will last for several years or more. By then, we'll probably have better and hopefully more abundant antivirals, though.

Sleep well and stay safe, fren.
Not trying to scare you, just be careful out there.