> population: 300k > IC beds: 30 > average occupancy: 70-90% > Sustainable infection count: 30-90 > Current infection count: 100+
Iceland is on the verge of a medical system collapse. How do we know this? One can predict the number of IC cases from Italian numbers. With 100 infections, the number of critical cases will soon be 10. As the number of infected grows, the number of critical cases grows. This means the Icelandic medical system will soon be taxed to 33% by the coronavirus alone. Usually hospitals function with a buffer around 10-30%. When coronavirus critical patients increase, hospitals will have to make room and cease normal functions like routine surgeries. At higher percentages, hospitals will have to focus on only coronavirus cases. After that, field hospitals will have to be deployed like in Italy.
Keep an eye on Iceland in the coming days. people are quiet on Iceland, but it is fucked.
You'll see, they will have 0 deaths. Why? Because "coronavirus" cases are in fact normal flu cases falsely designated as coronavirus. So everytime a patient dies from it they attribute it to le coronavirus.
In a small country like Iceland, there are very few deaths of the seasonal flu. So very few deaths "caused by the coronavirus"
Angel Phillips
Let's discuss Norway too
> Population: 5 mil > IC beds: 400 > Sustainable infection count: 400-1200 > Current infection rate: 600+
Same story. Norway is about to get a pummeling. In a couple of days they will have so many critical cases they won't know where to keep them.
Problems should already be occuring. The situation will turn critical in about 4 days.
Which I'm sure is what the Italians said before their medical system got fucked in the ass.
Logan Barnes
>Current infection rate: 600+ 799 right now we are indeed fucked. my gf is in line to be tested. she's a nurse, got soar throat and a slight fever. she was on the phone for over an hour to book at test at the hospital where she works. they will call her up when they have the time. this was eight hours ago.
Thanks for the information. Sad to your about your situation. Good to hear my model has predictive value. I hope other countries act sooner.
Xavier Cooper
Let's discuss Denmark
> pop: 5 mil > IC beds: 400 > sustainable infection count: 400-1200 > Current infection count: 500+
Denmark is clearly in a similar boat as Norway. Lucky for Denmark, they shut down schools and universities. They're also doing border checks and stuff. IMO they should tell people to stay home for a week or two, stock up on food and read a fucking book or something. In any case, this may be enough to slow their growth so their medical system can keep up.
Norway closed schools and kindergartens today, so there's that. I kept my kids home before that of course.
Cooper Howard
Let's discus Switserland
> pop: 8 mil > IC beds: 1000 > Sustainable infection count: 1000-3000 > Current infection count: 868
More people, more beds, same story. Switzerland thinks it's immune since it has mountains and shit. The virus is already there, though, and spreading. If they don't keep their people inside, they're going to be overburdened in 3+ days.
