> population: 300k > IC beds: 30 > average occupancy: 70-90% > Sustainable infection count: 30-90 > Current infection count: 100+
Iceland is on the verge of a medical system collapse. How do we know this? One can predict the number of IC cases from Italian numbers. With 100 infections, the number of critical cases will soon be 10. As the number of infected grows, the number of critical cases grows. This means the Icelandic medical system will soon be taxed to 33% by the coronavirus alone. Usually hospitals function with a buffer around 10-30%. When coronavirus critical patients increase, hospitals will have to make room and cease normal functions like routine surgeries. At higher percentages, hospitals will have to focus on only coronavirus cases. After that, field hospitals will have to be deployed like in Italy.
Keep an eye on Iceland in the coming days. people are quiet on Iceland, but it is fucked.
You'll see, they will have 0 deaths. Why? Because "coronavirus" cases are in fact normal flu cases falsely designated as coronavirus. So everytime a patient dies from it they attribute it to le coronavirus.
In a small country like Iceland, there are very few deaths of the seasonal flu. So very few deaths "caused by the coronavirus"
Angel Phillips
Let's discuss Norway too
> Population: 5 mil > IC beds: 400 > Sustainable infection count: 400-1200 > Current infection rate: 600+
Same story. Norway is about to get a pummeling. In a couple of days they will have so many critical cases they won't know where to keep them.
Problems should already be occuring. The situation will turn critical in about 4 days.
Which I'm sure is what the Italians said before their medical system got fucked in the ass.
Logan Barnes
>Current infection rate: 600+ 799 right now we are indeed fucked. my gf is in line to be tested. she's a nurse, got soar throat and a slight fever. she was on the phone for over an hour to book at test at the hospital where she works. they will call her up when they have the time. this was eight hours ago.
Thanks for the information. Sad to your about your situation. Good to hear my model has predictive value. I hope other countries act sooner.
Xavier Cooper
Let's discuss Denmark
> pop: 5 mil > IC beds: 400 > sustainable infection count: 400-1200 > Current infection count: 500+
Denmark is clearly in a similar boat as Norway. Lucky for Denmark, they shut down schools and universities. They're also doing border checks and stuff. IMO they should tell people to stay home for a week or two, stock up on food and read a fucking book or something. In any case, this may be enough to slow their growth so their medical system can keep up.
Norway closed schools and kindergartens today, so there's that. I kept my kids home before that of course.
Cooper Howard
Let's discus Switserland
> pop: 8 mil > IC beds: 1000 > Sustainable infection count: 1000-3000 > Current infection count: 868
More people, more beds, same story. Switzerland thinks it's immune since it has mountains and shit. The virus is already there, though, and spreading. If they don't keep their people inside, they're going to be overburdened in 3+ days.
what about you? clogs don't protect against the virus does it? what's your population vs ic beds?
Bentley Thompson
U.K. has around 4200 and a population of 66 million at least, probably 2 million illegals at least on top of that. Other places seem to have one ICU bed per 10,000 population. We seem to have one for every 16,000 people. We must be really healthy.
Joshua King
Yeah we're fucked too, but it's gonna take a week
> pop: 17 mln > IC beds: 2000 (1600 usable) > Sustainable: 1600-4800 > Current: 600+
It's gonna take about a week until we start seeing trouble. Our hospitals are already making emergency plans, but our government does nothing. We will not be able to slow down the growth enough to prevent a catastrophy.
Let’s discuss Greenland: 0 cases so far, very isolated, amazing scenery...why not hang out there for a few months?
Michael Johnson
I'm scared guys.
Noah Scott
Yeah seems like a nice place DESU Antarctica too. Although the spanish flu got even there in the end.
Ethan Baker
no wonder there's that icelandic user that keeps screeching about china
David Campbell
GERMany?
Jayden James
Got some more charts I can dump
Here's Italy.
When I first made this chart it was 2 days before the big happening there. The day of the happening was the day they hit 10% capacity. Of course locally the capacity is much much smaller.
My grandma tested positive yesterday, their old people residence has 10 cases already, she is already dead probably F
Carter Kelly
can you do Spain?
Kayden Myers
source?
Nathaniel Brooks
what about France?
Levi Flores
northern europeans have a better immunity due to the black plague
Jack Evans
Switzerland is doing absolutely nothing to slow anything down. We have the Swiss border around the corner and people were coming over for cheap groceries until the very last minute Italy shut down. The comments in Ticino online newspapers are pretty much asking for public hangings of all Swiss politicians.
Benjamin Smith
Sorry to hear. F
Jaxson Turner
>locally the capacity is much much smaller. will they fly around patients from bavaria to hamburg for example?
Tyler Cruz
>mutt education Do you know Venetia and the traditional black plague mask are in the mediterranean right?
just more evidence italians are particularly susceptible. italian ghettos in usa had horrendous death rates in 1918
Andrew Scott
Yeah, give me a second.
The model I made. The data is from the CSSE.
France is fine for now. You got a week or two
Thanks for the info, that's good to know. I hope the day of the rope comes soon.
Not likely. Maybe at first, but with a local outbreak usually quarantine follows. It is more likely they will import people and equipment than export patients.
Alexander Gray
>northern europeans have a better immunity due to the black plague somewhat true perhaps. but that doesn't help us now, does it
James Sullivan
11 nurses at my brothers GF's workplace got quarantined today. Mom is showing symptoms(some coughing, shortness of breath) and I'm supposed to see her tomorrow, what do?
I'm scared guys.
Also she was at 3 stores earlier, all had no butter, no TP, almost no bread, several food items like pasta, rice, etc. was almost empty.
Was supposed to eat out tomorrow with family to celebrate brothers birthday, I said I'm not going. Was supposed to go to dentist next Monday, I've cancelled that too...
Nathan Garcia
It killed the half of england......
Josiah Thomas
they are fugged too bad some scandi nation will show wholey undeserved mercy eventually
> Mom is showing symptoms >Also she was at 3 stores earlier Based super spreader
Leo Reyes
Stay home. Don't spread.
Ryan Bailey
Yea basically... I've told her to contact her doctor. She says it's nothing, probably just a little cold. She refuses to listen.
Joshua Morris
Here's spain
Looking pretty good for now. Just remember that most of your infections are in the Madrid area, where only about half of your IC beds are. So if you take half of the 10%, 30% and 100% levels you may get a better picture of what's going on.
Still, plenty of time to react and cushion the blow.
I'm not gonna do Poland because you guys are doing unreasonably well. Maybe it's because nobody visits your country. Looks like this is your time Poland. Just wait for everyone to die and claim what's left.
I'll post a screenshot of the table of my model where the estimates for "number of days until happening" are. As you can see, Poland has between 24-30 days until serious capacity problems if things proceed as is.
All Eastern-EU countries are doing very well. Are you guys testing at all?
Based BOOMER Madrid Hospitals are puttin already beds in corridors and gyms like 20% of spanish population lives in Madrid city alone and Catalonia is not testing cause our quasi-federal state has the healthsystem divided in 17 ... Went 1 week ago, medic staff doesnt allow visits and tommorrow they will totally close it.
Logan Peterson
Portugal too pls dad
Joshua Barnes
Italian sources report 3000 cases in Spain, breaking news confirmed on Spanish newspaper El Pais.
Dominic Martinez
The same was an issue during the 2009 swine flu, then we had 100 less ICU beds - 300. Since the swine flu was overhyped, the current apathy and "it's just a flu bro"-meme came as a "fool me twice" thing.
Except this time it's even worse than the spanish flu, because back then people had partial immunity through related flu-strains.
Stores are emptied nationally, people are hoarding and expecting Papa State to come to their rescue, except they won't. They will ensure that as many as possible die in their homes so "critical functions" can be upheld, aka. the bare naked healthworkers with minimal PPE to speak of.
Nathaniel Peterson
>testing lol no it's also gov propaganda at work, we had cases as early as January but they just keep't quiet
Wyatt Price
Thanks for the info on Madrid. Good to know. I found a nice source for IC beds by province for spain, but unfortunately the CSSE dataset doens't track spanish cases by region, so I can't do any useful analysis.
Portugal isn't doing too bad. The graph won't tell you more than you know. About 12-18 days until trouble. You can check the table in this post:
Logan Morris
bitch ass faggot
Carter Hughes
Kek
Daniel Hernandez
This too
Wyatt Rodriguez
Where do you get these stats from, user?
David Williams
the news just said like 1400 in Madrid, can you make one about madrid alone? And one about Burgos? I live there
Blake Ross
That's an insane growth. That puts spain right in the top ten, lmao. Obviously the model doesn't account for sudden spikes like that.
I'll wait until the CSSE updates the data and post the new graph tomorrow some time. The CSSE dataset is updated once a day, unfortunately.
In that case the situation may be worse. Do you see a lot of cases/worry around you?
I make the graphs. The data is from the CSSE. It's not real time data, usually about 15 hours behind.
Angel Hall
Population Density Madrid is literally Megacity 01
Don't let the year fool you. Most hospitals in Europe have been DUMPING IC beds the past few years for efficiency reasons. Healthier population => less IC beds necessary. Until you suddenly need them ofcourse.
Unfortunately I don't have time series data so I can't extrapolate accurately on the number of infections and ICU admissions. If you know the number of cases in madrid 10 days ago (median IC stay time) you can do the work yourself. It's >(current infections - infections 10 days ago)/10
As long as that number is under 70, you're fine. If it's between 70-210, there's trouble. Above 210, you're fucked.
If we assume the number of infections 10 days ago was zero (100), we get currently 130 ICU admissions. That's trouble. That number is gonna increase with a growth factor a bit under 1.2, so in a few days it's gonna be real real trouble.
Brandon Davis
There wasn't any confirmed cases in my region so no, no one in my workplace or home has any symptoms.
The panic on the other hand is insane, schools closed for 2 weeks all non-perishables brought up in matter of hours, gov contemplates going into state of emergency which would essentially mean martial law
William Baker
>400 ic beads for 5 million people
What the fuck? I think the hospitals in the Phoenix metro alone (5 million) have 3x that
Dominic Perry
Yeah Finland is fine for now. 10-16 days until trouble. Fins are killing themselves at higher rates than this virus.
