Yas Forums is full of tourists right now so I'm posting here...

Yas Forums is full of tourists right now so I'm posting here. We are modeling a 60-70% crash to the bottom of the S&P right now based on further deteriorating fundamentals underneath current overvaluations. AMA

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who's we?

General analysis team at a middle tier fund which I would get fired from if I named. We get free reign to look at data and make conclusions basically.

So what should I buy and when?

Long only - hold cash until inflation indicators start showing up. Even then wait until the fundamentals look good still, equities will still lose value relative to overall supply growth caused by inflation for a time until their valuations catch up with the growth we see coming from said inflation. Real estate shorts are good if employement starts reversing, commodities are king if inflation starts up of course. Until then just cash, catching near the bottom can take 10 years off your retirement.

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I'm a 35 year old male who lives with his parents and I make minimum wage at McDonalds. I've tried building a legit business for 10 years but they've all failed. Is there anything I should know to make it? I want to help my parents out.

Yas Forums is fast right now too faggot. Trump gave the happening speech.

So what does SP need to be at for me to buy? 2008 values?

This is going to sound like very boomerish advice but seriously it has helped me more than anything: 9-5 is what you do for a living but 5-12 is what defines you. Very very few people have the natural beauty and intellect to be a chad, most people faked it. Anyone who says otherwise is lucky or one of the aforementioned genetic lottery winners. My second piece of advice would be to say fuck everyone else, look at the people around you and realize they aren't living the life you want to live, so if they are hating on you then why would you listen to what they want you to be doing? These are both very general advices, but it has to be this way, nobody knows you or what you do well and nobody can plan your life for you, so you have to take that general advice and mold it to fit you so you can succeed.
Truly godspeed user, I hope you make it man, if anybody in the world deserves to make it, it's the people on this website. But unfortunately the world is not just, so we need to bring it out of each other.

Everyone on Yas Forums is just there to post wojaks, Yas Forums is more comfy right now.

Will people jump out their windows on Wall Street?

Do you have predictions regarding the UYU/USD pair? Shit is hitting the fan here.

I’m predicting -25% from where we sit today before we hit the bottom. I’m also not predicting bitcoin will rise until the DOW does.

Thoughts???

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>Everyone on Yas Forums is just there to post wojaks
that sounds pretty comfy actually

Thank you so much user. I know you might not believe me but I've legit teared up reading your post. You're a good man.

how long before supply chain disruption/shortages buttfuck my project that got tangled in bureaucratic horse shit for 14 months and finally broke ground in Jan? steel, concrete, plumbing etc all about to go sky high on price? or will i get the advantage of all these fucking developer faggots pumping their brakes and a slight window of drop in demand/flood of supply? we were using as much made in USA as possible. debating just freezing the fucking thing but i don't want to hold cash and would rather put it in to this

Unironically buying a house with 401k money as down payment. How fucked am I?

So long long dated puts?

>if anybody in the world deserves to make it, it's the people on this website.
pfffffff hahahahaha

What is your advice user? Do we buy? I'm looking to HODL for years.

go back blue haired gash dilator

>Is there anything I should know to make it?
Go to trade school and get paid

Depends. I think everyone is too apathetic for that in these days, people are very random sometimes though. Losing your job is always stressful though.

I don't do much FX, dollar is very deflationary though and we are watching repo veryyyy closely and we are watching interest swaps as well to see where people are hedged at. Short term I'd say it will get worse, long term hinges on wether foreign nations decide to stack reserves or start dumping their usd reserves.

I'd say you are smarter then 90% of the people asking me why gold is falling right now. Supply and demand is all that matters in capitalism, nothing is safe from deflationary pressures. Commoditys are generally an early cycle play so yes bitcoin will likely skyrocket along with gold and other commodities once a reversal happens and inflation adjusts higher, a lot like we saw after the elections in 2016 when we reversed from what looked like an almost secular downturn.

Nice larp faggot. "We" being the biz brain trust and pajeet tier fud.

We here at Yas Forums know the s&p is going to zero. You faggots should have listened to Peter Schiff

You think we can go to 15k-10k dow drop bro?

Same here user. Except I quit a very, very comfy job in order to setup a business with my savings. I'm all in, if it fails I'm fucked for good. This is not America, if you fail, you're fucked for life. I feel like a massive failure, never could buy my mum a house or even give her a nice present lime a trip to Europe.
But all I know is that if I give up, I'm done. So there's no giving up.

In business you should always think how can you add value or create value. If the first thing that comes to mind when you have an idea is how can I make money doing Y. You already fucked up.

financial crisis had 14k to 6k but the fundementals were far worse then. If it does it will be the fastest recovery in history.

This might be the greatest post I've read in weeks.

What is the sign we've about reached the bottom?

you don't deserve anything except a bullet to the head you miserable cocksucker. that goes for the rest of the maladjusted delusional faggots here who think they are fighting for their race or whatever gay shit by posting pepe and wojak memes

Took me 10 years to turn my $10,000 initial investment into $70,000. Am I going to lose it all?

why are you here

to laugh at you

>Everyone on Yas Forums is just there to post wojaks
And quote nu metal lyrics?

Brainlet here, what happens if inflation is kicked off early by governments dumping helicopter money? They gave everyone in Hong Kong 10k to revamp the economy there. Since most people live two or three paychecks away from losing everything, I can't help but feel that our overlords are going to dump cash on us to keep people from rioting.

you could have just looked in the mirror goblin

I know nothing Yas Forums-related. Would cash be useful at all in a SHTF scenario? I've been thinking about taking everything out of the bank.

>60-70% crash

So, it'll fall to 60% of peak or 40% of peak?

any advice on how to monitor inflation?

Post positions.

this isn't your safespace you autistic faggot

what a fabulous use of your time. kindly go to one of the 200 other threads where you and your discord friends are all setting up strawmen and then attacking them. you have 80% of this board 95% of the time lately. there's an infinite playground for you to enjoy while the 100 or so /oldfag/ lurkers talk to financebroanon

Im glad man, I hope you find something that works and make your life how you want.

We're mostly long only, puts are very expensive right now and the speed and breadth of this decline is projecting a fairly drawn out half time rebound before continuing down. Our uncertainty about that is super high though, which is why we are going long only cash, sold out of the last of our bonds on Monday.

Hold cash, because of how severely the market fundamentals have deteriorated this is actually "the big one". You will hear people hem and haw about how value investing is dead and sentiment analysis quant is the only true way and blah blah, but those people are going to be taken out in the first rebound when they buy back in just to watch it keep dropping. In fact the very fact that "value investing is dead" exists is one of the overarching themes of this cycles tops. Look up "the nifty fifty" and the prevailing sentiment around markets at the time of the great depression, it was super similar. People just believe it's dead because they think companies juiced on credit are the only successful companies.

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Do you think it will be a steep, sudden drop; or do you think it will go in phases?

Okay thanks user. I guess I"ll just refrain from investing. I'm not too competent in the finance realm so thanks.

I think I'm going to buy some long shot puts for as far out dated as I can. That seems like the only rational play.

I think it is going to be a steep, precipitious drop.

I'm pretty simple in my analysis, but I've done alright.
This is an overdue correction, first of all, but the virus and anti-Trump media are further compounding that.
We;ve already hit a bear market level. I think it's reasonable to expect another 20% down from here. Maybe 18k dow, 2200 S&P, if I was predicting a bottom. I will start looking to move cash back in around those levels. I really don't see P/Es going below 15 by much, if at all, and once earnings start coming in Q2, it'll skew upwards anyway.
Caught the 2008-09 dip the right way, and I'd love to catch this one the same way and see where it comes back to in another 2-3 years.
Those who act like this is some apocalyptic event are retards - people consume their products and get excited for new products. This to shall pass.

Do you enjoy your job more or less in periods of extreme volatility like this? I'm graduating this May and have a job lined up as a quant trader for a derivatives market maker this fall. Kind of bummed that it looks like I'll be missing out on all the fun.

Hopefully I'll get a little breathing room to get out from under my short dated calls. I really thought Trump would announce massive stimulus today. Really fucked me over. Hoping for a little bump in the morning. Thanks for any advice you give.
Are you seeing fund liquidations? Or possibly disconnects between ETFs and their underlying assets?

What are you looking at? VIX? Short interest ratio? What?

Will the Fed lose its power due to the price of gold falling? What is the real reason why oil falling?

Do you think any major country (France, Germany, US, China) will transition to a war economy within the next 5 years?

Nice to see some decent analysis here. I just assumed his was always shit tier and always stuck to pol, there's some decent stuff there occasionally?

I've been involved with h funds a long time. My take is like yours, that underlying economic conditions are cooked and we're in for some long term pain. But, I was around for the tech boom and saw how bear market rallies can be. Im expecting a rally soon, probably very soon as big cities in the US announce quarantines, to test all time highs into the election.

is PlanB's stock to flow model accurate for Bitcoin. what's your price target for 1 year after the halving in May?

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I don't know what you mean. Right now I'm mostly cash. I have a handful of long dated puts in hospitality. Other than that I have a bunch of Friday expiring calls on banks and discrestionary. I thought Trump would do as he said he would and announce stimulus and tax relief.
I got burned. I'm going to go ahead and take my lumps. I don't like to buy into the trend but I'm considering it. Lots to decide by 930 tomorrow. Very stressed.

Puts are too expensive to be buying now.

Pic related

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Trump will crash the dollar to pump up stock

so whens the best time to buy

Oil is falling because demand is down because everything is shut/shutting.

Tell my I shouldn't add to my short position in the VIX. Realistically, I don't see it going above 60.

Seems like the safest trade worth making

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