>LATEST CASES 10:59: 47 new cases in Belgium. 10:55: 122 new cases in Switzerland. 10:52: 48 new cases in Germany. 10:49: 958 new cases and 63 new deaths in Iran. 10:34: 79 new cases in Bahrain. 10:33: 16 new cases in the Philippines. 10:32: 3 new cases in Vietnam.
Italy (10238/8000 ICUs) >0-6 days (Locally the medical system is already overrun. Field hospitals are being deployed) Norway (400/400ICUs) >1-7 days Sweden (355/700 ICUs) >4-10 days Switzerland (497/ 1000 ICUs) >5-11 days Spain (1695/5000 ICUs) >7-13 days France (1888/5000 ICUs) >9-15 days Netherlands (382/ 1600 ICUs) >9-15 days Belgium (267/2000 ICUs) >12-18 days UK (383/5000 ICUs) >15-21 days Germany (1565/28000 ICUs) >17-23 days Luxembourg (5/200 ICUs) >21-27 days (updated list march 11 2020)
The biggest concern right now is not the current CFR, but what the CFR will be when medical systems get overrun. About 10% of infections need an IC bed and assisted breathing. If those IC beds and breathing machines run out, we have a serious problem and the CFR may shoot up.
>METHODOLOGY We use a median IC stay of 10 days. We assume 10% of infected need IC. We use a growth factor of 1.2.
Demand for IC beds : D = .1 * (# infections (today)) - .1 * (# infections (today - 10)) # days until overrun = CEIL((log((total IC beds) * (1 - % of IC beds taken)) - log(D))/log(growth factor))
We compute a best and "worst" case. The best case is 70% of IC beds are already taken. The worst case is 90% are taken. (These estimates are very conservative, and in many countries the "worst" case is actually reality.)
For example, in the Netherlands we have between 9 and 15 days until every ICU spot with a mechanical ventilation unit is taken and we run into serious problems trying to keep people alive.
You can google the number of IC beds per country yourself and check my computations. I will keep updating these numbers. I try to keep this post as clear and concise as possible. For sources, comments and suggestions, please email: [email protected] Thank you
Logan Cooper
DAILY REMINDER:
THIS IS NOT EVEN A PANDEMIC, WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ARE LINKED EPIDEMICS >THIS IS NOT EVEN A PANDEMIC, WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ARE LINKED EPIDEMICS THIS IS NOT EVEN A PANDEMIC, WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ARE LINKED EPIDEMICS >THIS IS NOT EVEN A PANDEMIC, WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ARE LINKED EPIDEMICS THIS IS NOT EVEN A PANDEMIC, WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ARE LINKED EPIDEMICS >THIS IS NOT EVEN A PANDEMIC, WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ARE LINKED EPIDEMICS
When it comes to preparedness, my advice is to have multiples of everything. Sure, have water in bottles, barrels, tanks if you have space. Yes, have proper filters, but be ready to filter water with charcoal, loose sand, gravel and a piece of cloth and then boil as a last resort.
Might not apply to everyone's prep situation, but I still think it's worth considering.
when is the USA going to rise up? I am asking because lards are the kings of happenings, so once it hits the USA hard, we are going to have the biggest tantrums and stupidity display possible prove me wrong
China is lying while the US is just testing slow. If Trump was like Xi, all media would have been censored, tests would be stopped (with governors being threatened if they don't) and he would publicly declare that the US is Corona-free.
Elijah Nguyen
>lards are the kings of happenings absolutely, that's why information is being suppressed in the US
Ryder Thompson
20 bucks on BK being more fucked than they'd ever say
Juan Taylor
Why isn't the US testing people?
Christian Torres
How can the WHO get away with this?
Juan Jones
Damn, we're already at 49 cases, the surge of our cases were literally just 2 days ago kekek. We're gonna be joining you guys soon, wait for us
It's funny to look at this map, see that 90% of the cases are just the major cities, and realize how enormously the rest of the country must already be seeded where people have zero chance of having been tested.
Jordan Bell
We asked the WHO they said "thank you Tariq" and hung up
>20% of the US population dies from this >Every insurance company goes tits up because there is no way they can afford to pay out those claims >Chaos
I'm really interested to see the shekel shuffle that occurs as they try to figure out how to fuck the American people out of what is owed them while at the same time giving money to the people who were supposed to already have it.
Cameron White
I have yet to see a single case of really being "mild" every person that got into a severe case also said they all thought it was mild at first and become worse and worse as time went by,just as well that some had a "recovered" phase , how can we know that the "recovered" we have dont count the ones that were in the "recovered" phase?
LOMBARDY NUMBERS >OVER 1500 NEW CASES ONLY IN LOMBARDY >OVER 1500 NEW CASES ONLY IN LOMBARDY >OVER 1500 NEW CASES ONLY IN LOMBARDY >OVER 1500 NEW CASES ONLY IN LOMBARDY >OVER 1500 NEW CASES ONLY IN LOMBARDY
YESTERDAY THERE WERE ACTUALLY 2400 NEW CASES IN ITALY >YESTERDAY THERE WERE ACTUALLY 2400 NEW CASES IN ITALY
Welp, it finally happened. It was only a matter of time
>Walmart announced an emergency leave policy Should have been standard in the first place. Where the fuck was this when I was immensely ill for nearly a week back in January?
>cant keep my shit together >told I cannot leave early without facing penalty >clocked out for a lunch break until my shift ended >had to make the 40 minute bike ride home No wonder I collapsed as soon as I stepped inside my walmart dorm
>Be me at work in leadership position >Have older dude a little over a year away from retirement. >Night is wrapping up ask him if he needs anything to help prep for the next crew. >He says he might be calling off because he feels like he got hit by a truck. >Heard him having labored breathing earlier in the night. >Just tell him with all the shit going around not to hesitate and to see a doctor if he thinks he needs to.
Guys...is it happening? Is there a case of corona virus in my workplace? My state has known cases within a 30 minute drive from where I'm at. We've done the math before and we've all agreed it's basically impossible for this thing to not spread everywhere without a large scale quarantine. We've also joked that someone should take one for the team and get it so we get a 2+ week vacation. I'm kinda of scared because I did the math of thinking just for myself and where I went and visited in the last 2 weeks and it's ridiculous thinking of all the possible infections from just everyday life.
Kayden Martin
>Worlds first human to cockroach transmission.
Xavier Rodriguez
Does anyone else feel like they want to get infected just to get it over with? It's looking like it might be inevitable for the majority of the population. At least if I got infected now the hospitals are still running and still able to cope, I could get treatment if needed. I don't want to wait until the hospitals are overwhelmed.
It‘s going to go fast. 11 days ago we had 15 cases, now it‘s 500 and 3 dead.
Josiah James
ask again in 2 months pretty chill right now
Brody Foster
Lmao these healthcare officials still think no symptoms mean no infection. We have the same kind of fucking retards here in Finland too who think the same.
Ukraine is behind the curve anyway, just don't halfass your prep.
Brody Gutierrez
Fuck this country and FUCK CHINA
Connor Ramirez
stormtroppers walk again what a grand timeline
Carter Gutierrez
Has anyone told Iran this is Israel's fault? I want to believe there's a good chance for war as China recovers while the rest of the world is plunged into a viral lockdown of their own choosing.
They usually crackdown on absences like God's Wrath.
But there is a zero questions asked policy for time-off to care for yourself/family.
Joshua Hill
OBSESSED FUCKING HELL
OBSESSION FOR MEN
TAKE MEDS
Andrew Morris
IT'S EXPLODING IN ITALY. THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR FUCKING 2 DAYS NOW AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Josiah Stewart
jews have decided to cull their herd
Austin Wright
Absolutely zero effort is being made to actually contain or effectively quarantine any population center, and everyone wants to keep pretending everything is fine (media constantly downplaying with shit like "CASES HAVE STOPPED IN SOUTH KOREA AND CHINA GUYS HAPPENING CANCELLED" in the headlines even while they try to shit on Drumpf for ignoring the problem), so nothing will really start happening until the hospitals start shutting down in a month.
Xavier Carter
Hapenneing is back on
Carter Turner
It's spreading in every damn school because retarded teachers didn't want to stay home sick.
>Just opened a letter which came from NRW (German corona epicenter) FUCK, DIDN'T THINK ABOUT IT AND DIDN'T WASH MY HANDS AFTERWARDS NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Easton Price
Walmart user... Is that you? Did it get to tou, too?
Colton Gomez
Swedoids did tests. They were doing more tests in day than we've done in total
I hope im alive long enough to see gary posting like >lol, still only 876,567,342 dead >How many days has it been stuck at 876,567,342 ? Four days? Five days?
