Okay Venezuela is more or less getting deaded, but are Russia and Iran going to be okay?

Rude but true.

We're not ok

>their fracking and oil industry going to collapse
Wrong.

Attached: cost of producing a barrel of oil..png (1153x576, 24.5K)

>Iran going to be okay
No Iran is completely fucked.

>Russia
They have some small reserves in their rainy day funds (142b usd).

124*

Not if protections are put in place for the sake of fighting the virus.

It's gonna be pretty dire in Venezuela, ain't it?

>for the sake of fighting the virus.
The price will probebly not go that low, and even if it did the government could protect the shale industry on the basis that this over production is political and not free market..

Where do you get your data from, memeflag? $570B isn't bad when you don't have much, if any, dependence on imports. As a bonus, Russia is sitting on fat stacks of gold.

tradingeconomics.com/russia/foreign-exchange-reserves

because we're the biggest economy and comparing our gross total to that of nations smaller than our states is retarded. The figure that matters is trade as a percent of GDP

Attached: trade gdp.jpg (635x446, 38.65K)

this man gets it

Your data doesn't take into account the rapid decline of Wells and the need for constant exploration and new Wells. Break even on fracking is closer to $50
investopedia.com/articles/investing/072215/can-fracking-survive-60-barrel.asp

>$570B
Those are their foreign reserves.

>Where do you get your data from
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Wealth_Fund

They could produce shale for less than 20 dollars a barrel if the taxes are suspended to deal with the this crisis.

Attached: Gross taxes per barrel of oil.png (1117x527, 16.39K)

>you don't have much, if any, dependence on imports
Russia literally imports oil. They export crude and import refined. They also import onions for their farms, and rubber for everything. They import chips and other high tech stuff. They import their consumer goods, like dietary oils and coffee, and thats kind of thing that if its lacking can give you riots.
And of course not even russians like driving russian cars, so there's that.

National Wealth Fund is essentially a growth account for pensioners. Foreign exchange is for buying imports in another currency. The Forex and gold reserves are closer to a "rainy day fund" than the wealth fund is.

Regardless, neither will be tapped due to oil price. This is the benefit of a self-sufficient economy not depenent on imports.

foreign exchange reserves*

Attached: 61b6bc722a6211ad5e9cb0572f1f8afb.jpg (474x474, 21.66K)

>And of course not even russians like driving russian cars, so there's that.

Imports were 255k vs 1.4m sold in 2017. Post if you have newer source.

rt.com/business/420962-russia-car-production-sales/

>This is the benefit of a self-sufficient economy not depenent on imports.
... which Russia doesn't have. They import a lot of shit necessary for their economy. They don't make their own chips, and they don't even produce their own oil or gas extraction/processing hardware.
Even looking at the basics, Russia can't produce nearly enough rubber for its needs. Rubber is in everything.

Many of those are foreign brands produced there for "export". If trade stops, these factories close. This isn't being import reliant, this is "importing" from factories you host. They aren't russian factories, and neither are the brands, and neither are the top specialists there.

All the shittiest bargain bin crap that services the bottom of the market. No one cares and it's the easiest to replace.

Russia is sitting on a good backbone of food exports and other export items. Since they retired or docked most of their rusting pacific naval fleet their costs have gone way down.
They have been pushing hard with good relations with Japan and the Koreas as trade friends for years.
Iran is fucked.

Attached: Moar wheat.png (435x566, 410.04K)

>growth account for pensioners
No they are explicitly not pension funds. They are just rainy day funds, who could be used for anything.

>Foreign exchange is for buying imports in another currency
It could yes, but Forex reserves are used to back the central bank's liabilities

>The Forex and gold reserves are closer to a "rainy day fund" than the wealth fund is.
Absolutely wrong, a wealth fun is a rainy day fund.

>Regardless, neither will be tapped due to oil price
O yes they sure as hell will, Russia's fiscal break even point is at 42 dollars per barrel. And The KSA break even point is at 83 dollars per barrel.

>This is the benefit of a self-sufficient economy not depenent on imports.
What makes you think Russia is self sufficient? .

They do not even produce their own cars.

How would the cost of oil and gas be the same metric? Are you fucking retarded?

>Many of those are foreign brands produced there for "export". If trade stops, these factories close
This.

>RT
kek

Depends how much oil they will sell. People fixate on the price too much instead of the volume. You can sell more for less and have more net gain than if you would sell less for more.

Why did Putin refuse the OPEC deal? He may cripple saud and US economy a bit with this move, but he will also tank his own has dependent economy.
Why did he allahu akbar'd all oil producers including his country

>gas equivalent
Can you read? are you fucking retarded?

graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/

Top lel russkibro

fuck it I'm going to KFC tomorrow

>Russia's fiscal break even point is at 42 dollars per barrel
>Shale can be extracted for

>You can sell more for less and have more net gain
The demand has declined due to COVID-19, this is a price race to the bottom.

Nah. Our oil industry is basically separate from the world economy now. Remember when Iran hit that Saudi oil facility with missiles? It took more oil production off line in one day than the Allies did during the entirety of WWII. Oil prices here in the US actually went down slightly.

In the past he tried to trade Syria for Ukraine, and it didn't work.
Maybe he thinks he can trade Syria for OPEC deal now? Not sure KSA can do much about that.

>this is a price race to the bottom.

Agreed. Marginal producers are going to get hammered.

>You make me giggle
Because you are an uninformed ignoramus.

>hale can be extracted for Russia's fiscal break even point is at 42 dollars per barrel
aljazeera.com/ajimpact/opec-meeting-russia-cagey-oil-cuts-200302141913065.html

Hate to say it, but you're not wrong. The collapse of the Soviet Union completely fucked your demography. The big threat no one is paying any attention to is Turkey. Erdogan wants a new Ottoman Empire, and he has the means to take it.

Attached: Da_M733VAAEhkaW.jpg (1200x960, 182.29K)

Most of Russia's gas exports have been price locked and it will soon be summer so demand will be down. It is in fall/winter when the low price would hurt them due to larger amount needed.

>Erdogan wants a new Ottoman Empire, and he has the means to take it.
He doesn't, he has one of the highest foreign currency denominated external debts in the world, he alienated the US and the EU. He is at odds with Russia in Syria and Libya, and with China over the uyghur issue. Turkey hosts 3M+ refugees and is about to be invaded by a 1M more plus a boat load of terrorists. And on top of all that Corona-chan is comming.

Incorrect. What people don't realize is that the U.S. oil industry is extremely resilient--even if multiple companies go bankrupt, the production is barely effected, as assets are simply sold off to leaner and/or better positioned entities who continue production and operations. This is exactly what happened when the Saudis ramped up production in 2014 in an attempt to steal marketshare from U.S. shale, and they burned through almost their entire reserve of cash--and there was barely even a blip in production.

The same thing is going to happen this time if the Saudis try the same thing again, but they are in a MUCH worse position than they were in 2014 for two reasons: Their cash reserves are almost totally depleted, and they've been losing 10 MMbbl/month from their inventories since half of their production went offline last September--that's 10 *million* barrels per month. They can't keep that up, and they know it, and I think they're simply hoping at this point that Russia caves.

Further, since 2016, nearly 25% of the world's oil production has gone off the market: Venezeula, Saudi, Iran, and Russia to some degree have been severely disrupted due to sanctions, sabotage, and geopolitical maneuvering. Global inventories are circling the drain, and when that supply shock hits, all eyes will turn to American oil... which will ramp up in a way that will make the 2009-2014 rampup look miniscule by comparison.

Attached: 2020-03-09_6-37-46.jpg (1238x496, 65.83K)

Erdogan, and Turkey in general, want to make sure there is no kurdish succession. This means they want to, at all costs, STOP the creation of any autonomous kurdish state.
They were under the impression that USA will help them, because of their long standing alliance. And they were very surprised and very disappointed when Obama didn't enter Syria, and Trump is pulling from Iraq. Feels like a knife in the back. So now they have to get the shit done themselves.

Turkey's offense in the Middle east is self defense. Kurds are outbreeding turks in Turkey, and actual turks are just moving to Germany. Turkey needs to solve the kurdish issue, and this is them trying to solve it.

>the Saudis ramped up production in 2014 in an attempt to steal marketshare from U.S. shale
No? KSA attacked Iran and Russia, for what they were doing then. Not USA.

You are incorrect.

>There’s no doubt that shale has eroded Saudi Arabia’s “swing power” as the world’s largest oil producer. But thanks to their pumping capacity, reserves, and stockpiles, the Saudis are still more than capable of crashing the oil markets — and willing to do so. In September 2014, they did just that, boosting oil production by half a percent (to 9.6 million barrels per day) in markets already brimming with cheap crude and, a few days later, offering increased discounts to major Asian customers; global prices quickly fell nearly 30 percent. As in 1977, the Saudis instigated this flood for political reasons: Whether foreign analysts believe it or not, oil markets remain important venues in the Saudi-Iranian struggle for supremacy over the Persian Gulf.
foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/18/why-would-the-saudis-crash-oil-markets-iran/

Good point, i forgot to mention the kurds and them out breading the Turks.

>and Trump is pulling from Iraq
Trump gave Erdogan the green light to enter kurdish Syria tho.

This is just USA-centric faggotry. "Syria is in civil war - what does that mean for the USA?"...

Why is gasoline still so expensive?

>no u
By far, the biggest long-term threat to OPEC+'s market share is U.S. shale. They knew it in 2014, and it is demonstrably more so the case now than it was in 2014.

>Trump gave Erdogan the green light to enter kurdish Syria tho.
And then attacked him for doing it on the next day. Trump is like that russian saying about tzar Nicholas - he shares the political views of the last person he spoke to.

>>no u
KSA is projectile vomiting at Iran, and a drop falls on your shirt, and you think you are being assaulted. This is TYPICAL USA thinking. Please reconsider this faggotry.

interesting, so this is basically going to cause short term problems with a stronger and bigger US oil industry on the other side

He still has the second largest army in NATO and a surplus of fighting age men. Currency and debt become irrelevant if you can go out and conquer territory for resources. It kept the Soviet Union going for decades. And Erdogan will HAVE to go to war if his economy tanks, because a shit ton of unemployed fighting age men will otherwise lead to rebellion.

Attached: turkey-population-pyramid-2018.jpg (610x425, 36.64K)

It was suck a dump plan in the first place, even if the Saudis would be able to destabilize the US oil producers, a small government intervention would completely bankrupt the Saudis, because there is 60 times more capital in the US than Saudi Arabia

>he shares the political views of the last person he spoke to.
Kek, he shares the political views of the last person that flattered him.

>especially after Europe became too independent and a competitor instead of an ally.
Good one.
I wish that was the case though

>KSA is projectile vomiting at Iran, and a drop falls on your shirt, and you think you are being assaulted. This is TYPICAL USA thinking. Please reconsider this faggotry.
Iran's production is mostly offline. See pic related. Saudi ramping up production at this juncture has little or no impact on Iran as long as U.S. sanctions remain in place.

Saudi's goals are two-fold: To disrupt U.S. shale production, and to chip away at Russia's market share while they experience market delivery disruptions. Remember, U.S. oil production is now at 12MMbbl/day. We are now by far the world's #1 oil producer, and that rightly terrifies Saudi.

Attached: Iran Oil Production.jpg (1093x634, 64.8K)

>half of their production went offline last September
Wait what?

Wasn't even Canada doing a lot of shale shit in 2014? I don't get why KSA would attack their best ally USA.

Iranian proxies from Yemen managed to get a missile into the biggest oil plant. It was quickly fixed, but for a moment the market lost like a third of its oil.

U.S. sanctions. They can't get their oil to market. The U.S. has been systematically destabilizing OPEC oil production since Trump got into office, while simultaneously ramping up its own production to historical highs. We now account for roughly 20% of global oil and gas production.

Attached: 2020-03-09_6-59-17.jpg (750x363, 38.12K)

>He still has the second largest army in NATO
He need the west to supply him in a real war, second largest standing army yes but not the second most powerful. Also as i mentioned turkey has one of the highest foreign currency denominated external debts, which means the Lira is on the brink of collapsing. You cant fight any war without a functioning economy.

>surplus of fighting age men
The birt rate of Real Turks is almost as low in the west, besides that war has become much more capital intense, it is not really about how many people you have.

> Currency and debt become irrelevant if you can go out and conquer territory for resources
Debt means everything for turkey at the moment.

>because a shit ton of unemployed fighting age men will otherwise lead to rebellion
If anything leads to unrest it is an unsuccessful war.

are you two talking about venezuela or ksa

The pic is Iranian production, not Saudi. And Saudi has been backfilling lost oil processing with oil from inventories, which as I pointed out above, are depleting at the rate of 10MMbbl/month. At that burn rate, they will have exhausted their entire inventory in less than a year. Their refining capacity will not be back to normal in more than a year.

It kinda is, because of its huge internal market.

>second largest standing army yes but not the second most powerful
How do you quantify that?

>I gave you the source

WSJ is your 'source'?

Damn, memeflag. WSJ is the propaganda choice for bankers looking to fleece the sheep. Dude is an industry guy talking of idling rigs at

I was asking about KSA

>Wasn't even Canada doing a lot of shale shit in 2014?
No. Canada is primarily heavy oil steamflood/SAAGD, the market for which is 99.9% United States, as we're the only nation that can refine heavy, sour crude. So-called "shale" oil in the U.S., more accurately called LTO (light, tight oil) is light and sweet. As the supply of LTO increased in the U.S., the demand for Canadian oil was fairly substantially impacted. They are also having severe delivery disruptions as well, and are likely going to lose almost all of their oil production in the next several years.

Laying down iron doesn't mean losing substantial amounts of production. See
LTO wells can be drilled and POP in less than a month.

It all depends on the mission of course (power projection is much more expensive than a defensive army). But simply by the fact that France and the UK are nuclear powers.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=IqDrZYNafAg
Should see this bud.

China's greatest weakness is its lack of energy resources. They'll soon start wars to take over oil field and natural gas sources.