a few good guesses, informed by basic stats (Italy as a major Chinese tourist destination..). but a few fundamentally incorrect predictions:
> The Chinese claimed 2.x% mortality rate is accurate as evidenced by experience outside of China. In some countries, even 2% is too high. Especially when you consider the mild sufferers who never even present to hospital for treatment..
> Mortality, contrary to what this guy predicted, is, if anything, decreasing as times goes on not increasing. Latest research shows there are two dominant strains of the virus, a particularly deadly strain that hit Wuhan hard, and a less virulent strain which is spread in most other places.
Everything else he said is either commonsense, or pure guesswork. It's how people in finance operate. Sometimes they get lucky, sometimes they dont.
