- Complete lockdown of the entire country
- 26.5 million unemployment claims
- $6,000,000,000,000 printed by the FED
- global pandemic (although it's slowing down)
Given all the bad data and much more, the stocks are going up every day, what stops you from going all in on S&P500 knowing that literally nothing except maybe World War III can stop it?
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researchgate.net
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Reality.
>imagine going all in and it goes worse than 1929
>tfw bagholding for over a decade while everyone else scoops up the real cheapies
>imagine bagholding and the companies you bought go bankrupt, no 10 year for recovery they're at 0
Being able to massively outperform it in the longrun by trading
You are aware that the technological singularity that is only a few decades away is causing immense upward pressure on the US stock market? It takes shutting down the entire fucking planet just to set it back 8 months, imagine where this fucker is going to be in 5-10 years.
That's what I'm thinking, which is why I'm holding cash, but now I'm kinda FOMO because it really looks like we've bottomed in march
The fact that this is the start of a multi-year bear and the S&P 500 will probably bottom at 1500 best case, and probably fall well below 1000. So I am not going to lose 50%+ of my money buy buying now. I'll start averaging in in 2-3 years when it looks like the bottom.
thats a man and he is HOT
u did miss out. u people think a 1929 event is likely when those dipshits at the time had no clue how to fix it
If you really get the itch to put money in then do utilities, gold, and/or treasuries. This rally isn't a bull market and all of those have good risk:reward profiles in this environment.
It’s going to crash pretty soon. The stay at home guidelines are going to be extended indefinitely. My office has extended it indefinitely.
Who fix what? You act like someone needs to "fix" the stock market. Nothing guarantees the stock market goes up. And there are lots of people that make money if the stock market goes down. You naive newfag investors are in for a harsh reality check in a few months. Look at the chart even just 20 years ago and imagine buying the first dip after that peak in 2000. You would be bag holding that shit for 6 years before you just broke even, right before the next 50%+ crash. Now every indicator around was screaming overvalued for the past year, and now there is probably going to be a 10% GDP drop in a single quarter at least. Shit started happening for corona too.
The average iq was much higher in 1929. People today are literally retarded. Electronics are why it is not obvious. We’ve fucked ourselves good this time.
Are you aware people have been making this exact argument since the 1800s?
We might be in a new Dark Age with all these niggers and third worlders getting all uppity in America and Europe. There was a reason for the progress you mentioned. Things have changed.
Moore's law isn't very applicable anymore because of physical limitations on the size of transistors.
Reminds me of how western economists are constantly predicting africa is on the verge of a massive economic boom. Lol no. At least as long as I've been alive I've been reading that the boom is just around the corner.
Well to be fair, it is possible the compute medium will change again. Although I generally agree with the sentiment that trends don't last forever. They eventually run up against limiting factors.
Once developing nations in Africa finally get their shit together there is no reason their economies shouldn't skyrocket. Resource rich land, and if they do get their shit together they will absolutely take their resources back from those exploiting them. Timing this os equivalent to correctly timing any boom/bust cycle but when you see some stable growth in Africa, if you ever do, you should absolutely invest.
>> 18687071
It might just be my FOMO kicking in real hard, but after watching the coronavirus task force + all the news it just seems like we're going to start reopening next week, some stats already started "REOPENING THE ECONOMY" but I guess we'll see
The more important thing is that doubling transistor count doesn't double processing power which isn't anything even related to doubling worker productively, which is what the singularity is about. The singularity implies computers can self design themselves. That's now how programming works, at least how we understand it today. Its not a question of processing power, fundamentally we don't know how to design something that can do that.
This. This board is retarded for advocating for and thinking this is going to end anytime soon, and believing this is a bull market is wishful thinking. The states in the south that are re-opening early will either exceed NYC level catastrophes or be forced to lock down again shortly afterward due to mounting public pressure when their exceedingly obese and retarded populations start dying.
Will we see restrictions being eased? Probably. But once the market realizes that this is here to stay for the next year if we don't want a resurgence that is even worse, expect a mass sell-off and Great Depression 2 unless Jerome sets the printers to overdrive, and that's only delaying the inevitable. The fundamentals are fucked and will remain fucked for years after this. If you think otherwise you're a delusional faggot.
The genetic limit of sub Saharan IQ is like 75 average. That's the reason they always have to have someone come in and boss them around to get anything done. Use to be Europeans then they left and things fell apart. Now the Chinese are moving in. Watch "Empire of Dust" for a good illustration of this.
This shit transcends transistors.
This is unbelievably ignorant. What about all the times that civilization and technology moved backwards and had to be re-discovered. You really think that can't happen again? There are massive disgenic trends occurring globally. Global intelligence has been decreasing since the start of the industrial revolution.
The only boom they will ever get is if whites cultivate the land, like in South Africa. Or chinks use the niggers as slaves.
>Global intelligence has been decreasing since the start of the industrial revolution.
This. Last great mind was Kelly Johnson. Can’t imagine anyone in the last 100 years coming close to the intelligence of Newton or Tesla.
He posts on Yas Forums but his interests are lolis and trannies
The primary driver of that technological and scientific growth is population growth. The curves are practically identical, because the larger and more free a population is the more able it is to innovate and achieve, forming a positive feedback loop. There's a lot of indications that we're approaching the limit here pretty quickly. Not just physical limits, as with transistors, but demographically as well. As populations modernize and develop they stop reproducing (stage five of the demographic transition model). Once most of the world capable of innovating (i.e. everyone but niggers) hits their carrying capacities, the rate of innovation will only dwindle as it becomes harder and harder to innovate.
Also points out that this trend is hardly a perfect exponential function, and furthermore growth and innovation will never be uniformly distributed. Also combined with the smaller overall population growth doesn't seem to bode well for the future of muh singularity.
This. It's probably me, I had a lot of potential but I have squandered it all.
>Global intelligence has been decreasing since the start of the industrial revolution
Source?
I can't stand singularity Niggers. Seems to be silicon valley types finding a substitute for religion. For example, many of the gurus predictions about when life extending tech will be commercialized is mysteriously right before the end of their own life expectancy.
I studied physics and one of the ways you disprove someones theories is by showing that under certain conditions their math predicts a singularity (going to positive or negative infinity). It's fucking stupid to predict any technology will inevitably increase forever.
pop growth follows tech, not the other way round.
Whatever, short then. I'm long humanity and gonna get rich.
Even if he's right it's not like tech is going to stagnate in our lifetime
We have a saying "zoom out faggot"
In before Flynn Effect. Flynn himself admits that the effect is only on IQ not G. Specifically people are getting better at taking IQ tests but G (general intelligence factor) is not increasing. Anyway Flynn effect has already been overtaken by Woodly effect (decrease in the genetic component of G).
We're talking about investment strats within this lifetime so your comment is irrelevant.
Innovation has already slowed down a lot since the 60s. Read Peter Theil to get a better perspective on this.
BTW lots of quantitative metrics on this including patents per capita, slower turnover in top 10 corporations, and infrastructure stagnation.
Here's a good starting place if you've just now heard of these ideas: wsj.com
BTW this has a huge impact on long term investing strategy.
Because it's a bull trap
Why is that the most technologically advanced countries now have consistently the lowest population growth? Tech and population growth form a feedback loop but only up to a certain point. The fewer geniuses a population creates the harder it will be to innovate going forward, especially when the low-hanging fruit has all been plucked. How is this not intuitive?
That's basically the trend, yeah. I'm familiar with these sorts of people because I work in tech. I think it's also partially informed by a predisposition optimistic/idealistic thinking. This is probably why the same demographic/IQ range tends to predominantly hold liberal beliefs. Ultimately I think we all find some sort of substitute for religion/religious thinking. The naive optimism of singularity niggers certainly isn't the worst expression of this that I can think of.
95 IQ poster
130 IQ poster
This
Think about all the sci-fi books / movies made in the 60s/70s that take place around now and assume by now we'd all be flying around in space and shit. Think blade runner, the book was written in the 60s and takes place in 2019, or 2001 a space odyssey. The reality turned out that people live today almost exactly as they did 60 years ago with slightly better entertainment and communicate technology. We can't even go to to the moon anymore let alone half the shit they thought we'd have by now.
Today people are envisioning AI running the world for us, or quantum computing, or longevity breakthroughs, but the future in 60s is unlikely to be much different than today. Technology moves much slower than we think. I mean, if you work a job in research or product development you come to realize just how fucking long it takes to do anything.
Lol delusional people like you make laugh especially when none of you ever post proof of going all in. If you truly believed that dumb annoying meme of "stocks only go up" you'd be all in cause "hey no way it be cheaper the next day right guys? Hahaha stocks only go up."
she got me with that milkies