If halving boosts BTC price

Then why the price don't immediately react to halving?

Notice how the 2nd halving happened in June 2016 but it wasn't until mid 2017 BTC price started to gain traction

Attached: 1_vWxrWI4LVNroEuL3TbLzwg.png (618x462, 30.08K)

only miner bills react immediately
than it tends to fill the gap cause miners ain't selling, so there is less sell pressure both from halving and miners

because they want to shake out weak hands

There seems to be some confusion regarding whether or not the halving will cause BTC to appreciate. I believe the biggest argument against a price appreciation of BTC is the “priced in” meme, which postulates that because the halving is already known, it must already be reflected in the BTC price. This reasoning is based on the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” which describes the market as a sentient entity that “prices in” all known information into the value of the underlying asset or security. Well, what BTC has demonstrated over the last decade is that the EMH does not apply to it. This is because BTC is still treated as a highly speculative asset, and as such, the market tends to exaggerate and “price in” RISK as opposed to opportunity. What does this mean? Simply put, all of BTC’s potential risks (miner capitulation, software bugs, government intervention) remain constantly priced in UNTIL the risks are deemed improbable and the OPPORTUNITY can finally be priced in. So this means that the halving effect (opportunity) on price is delayed until the market gets over its RISK fear, i.e., BTC halves and then DOES NOT experience the aforementioned risks. Once this happens the price trends up again as the market adjust to the OPPORTUNITY (decreased supply). So in other words, buy fucking BTC you faggots.

Why don't they price in the emh fear Vs risk index in?

Reward halves
Inefficient miners get fucked, slowly
They usually will have energy contracts and lag time between they go bust, usually 3 months
If BTC stays as it is, miners will capitulate by August.
These inefficient miners couldn’t save any BTC as they had to cover costs, so sell pressure is high (although halved, which is positive for price action by itself)
Once they capitulate the efficient miners with more buffer, get MORE bitcoin per 10 mins.
As they’re efficient, they save more bitcoin and sell pressure eases
This allows a less volatile accumulate period with a slow rise.

Thus, begins the bullmarket, a year later is when things get interesting.

Miners have shitloads of BTC they sell cheaper than they could by holding, and that supresses price. As they run out, the price moves up

halfnig is priced in

They sell for usdt
Mark my words
Usdt will collapse a few days before the halvening and fuck us all

Because it's just whale manipulation, and the higher the price the harder it is to pump

> why isn't the entire future of everything already priced in, why does time even exist

That model is dow defunct because money printer go brrrr. BTC will hit at least 250k this cycle. Probably upwards of 1 million.

Everybody keeps forgetting that

1) Oil is cheap as fuck
2) China that controls 70% of Bitcoin has locked it in very cheaply
3) Along with Russia, China has been hoarding gold.

They will take advantage of the corona they created, make oil even cheaper, create a gold backed cryptocurrency, use BTC to destroy the dollar before this and the world will officially change forever.

Screenshot this, frame it. This is what is happening in the next 2 years.

im all in btc so i dont care about the dollar

less BTC incoming
+ same amount of BTC wallets lost
=> deflation

china is going to get assraped by the immense decrease in demand for useless goods in europe and america

China might establish a silk road type of thing. US gets rekt long-term unless you strengthen your industry.

for the next 10 years crypto will a world asset. Beyond 2030 itll get destroyed. Pax americana will end. Israel will be the new world power. They are gonna implement Gold and Silver again.

this better not be a copy pasta because it is based and screencapped

this chart is old

It's amazing that I'll be living through this. A complete upending of the system. Wondering if anyone can argue the opposite - that nothing will change with all these factors on the table.

>no jobs. continued structural unemployment and depressed workers since the 2000s
>at least 12 central banks going brrr plus emerging UBI
>boomer hedge fund guy saying silver is the play of the decade
>JPM's silver hoard
>younger guys in finance hedging their bets in btc

The other crazy thing is Arthur Hayes predicting debt jubilee.. fucking amazing if the current system we have just plods along unscathed.

I have earned so much disdain just mentioning a possible debt jubilee, why are economics majors so cucked

It's gotten to the point where if I see hoard/horde used correctly, I still do a double take. Thank you for not being a faggot today.

is that essentially cancelling all debt? how could that ever happen?

>Then why the price don't immediately react to halving?
because the future price and the systemic risks and externalizes of regulatory and market behavior are all priced in at once.

it can't they will just make more debt forever instead and pay debt off with new debt.

You're right. I will buy BTC, a month from now. Buying it now would just be asking for it

i agree kinda... you probably won'tbe able to buy it this low a month (more like two) from now, but the risks are much more limited some time after the halving.

Halving is priced in, just like corona

alternatively you could just buy right now and short hedge on margin.
btc goes down you win the price difference, btc goes up significantly you lose your hedge margin and bought cheap, price doesn't change you lose nothing and gain nothing.

fucking retard telling people to buy bitcoin literally after saying it's because risks that may happen may not happen

the market isn't always logical, actually i've come to realize it's a lot stupider than you would ever imagine.

Welcome to crypto, newfag.