>Even mainstream traders lol >even people who are generally wrong
Since then we have seen V bottoms, December 2018 for starters. And NEVER has a central bank and federal government gone in so heavily on supporting markets. No one knows what'll happen. The liquidity thesis that meant every dip would be bought may once again be in play.
So RTX is just a meme? Seemed legit to me until I saw it shilled on here. >Rule of thumb - do the opposite of /smg/
Zachary Bennett
do you guys think jerome has trouble sleeping at night? he has been successful "saving" the market so far with the prop job and if corona does taper off even in a few months, the fed's bullshit won't have any immediate impact that would make him directly responsible. but what if the unthinkable happens, like war breaks out, or corona mutates, and the market tanks harder than it did a few weeks ago? he would be cited as the man who killed american markets. does this stuff keep him up at night?
Anyone else really bullish on semiconductors? I think all this work from home is really increasing demand on both person computing and cloud computing. Apparently auto is only 8% of the total industry, who the fuck cares. Computer and handheld sales are totally going to make up for the few months of lost revenue. Also found this article about Wuhan car sales.
maybe, but there's no percveived bad actors this time around, just a black swan and a government mandated shutdown, so there's wide support for keeping everything going, and providing loans that could become more like grants.
The financial crisis has left the country scarred. There's no Lehmann this time around, and no one wants to endure that again because of the virus and oil price wars, even if there were other signs of the cycle ending.
it's hard to tell. It's a bit too levered to global manufacturing and demand for commercial aerospace, so it could be a great buy (into weakness) if you're trying a barbell approach where you pick companies that will hold up well through the recession, AND strong cyclicals that will do well during the recovery.
Shit. Actually it might be a great cyclical.
I bought a bunch of AMAT and sold a credit spread... so it'll probably crash on monday. I would like to add more than 1 share of AMD and NVDA to my portfolio too. Not sure about their wuhan presence and data/consumer/industrial/auto/etc. demand.
i thought that hurting animals is bad and punishable by law
THEN HOW DID JEROME MANAGED TO GET AWAY WITH RAPING A PACK OF BEARS WITH HIS BIG GREEN COCK
Carter Mitchell
Thinking long term, I’d probably rather not use leverage at least until I have some confidence that another crash from the same black swan is on the table.
This image is terrible bait but I know 100% it will get replies in this thread.
Highly doubt there will be noticeable inflation yet, probably quite the opposite.
But I am considering adding to my gold position as the inflation scenario is becoming more likely.
100% memestock
Justin Torres
People and companies especially commercial real estate companies are super overleveraged, the financial crisis is still brewing. The dow might go to 50000 but currency will be toilet paper.
Elijah Sanders
>work in oil and gas >see all my peers getting fired left and right >they all have more experience and fancier degrees than me >surprised that I somehow dodged the layoffs so far >not going to be surprised if im unemployed soon Feels bad i wont have any income to buy the cheapies up.
2008 was not a V, even 2018 had that initial crash in october and then the bottom found around christmas. 2 months to find the bottom, with volatility in october after the crash. And this is nothing like 1987, that was a purely stock market crash based of computer fuckery, this is a fundamentals driven crash, the economy is shut down. Short of buying equities I do not think we see the Fed having more ammo, I mean they've already done a fuck ton. The initial drop was based off fear, the virus was a huge unknown, the oil war just started, the rally was based on Fed and Gov't intervention, the second leg down comes with the realization that the virus, although we probably do not see huge mass fatalities like iran, will linger on and slow economic activity for all of 2020, combined with the absolutely apocalyptic joblessness numbers realizing that their jobs might not be there when this is over.
Much more for the market to price it. We are at an 18% drop from ATHs, be honest, do you think that is a fair valuation of all the uncertainty we are going into? I think the market is pricing in a return to normal in the beginning of may, I don't see that happening. June at the least, open too quickly and we shut down again, Trump is a proud man, he doesn't want to be wrong, there will be mass testing before an open, temperature checks at public places. He wants it quickly, but done right, it is an election year.
The only way I see a chance at a V is if this virus is nothingburgered by may and fed starts buying SPY like no tomorrow, but that would be fucking shit news for the US economy, basically an admittal that we cannot keep up organic growth. Better to let it fall naturally and ensure liquidity to start up again.
Brandon Lee
Cheap people go last. You just got a promotion! No raise though, moneys tight. You understand?
I like XLNX. Don't know if SOXL is part of that but it's a good company that makes a whole software/hardware stack for FPGAs, an expensive but extremely useful computer component, that has only one competitor (in Intel) which is inferior. Their leadership and talent is high quality too. The only problem is they have exposure to the trade war/export controls/TSMC and could become a sacrifice on the altar of blaming china for everything.
Jackson Morgan
Should I sell ASAP then? Or at least once it hits my avg buy in?
Dude, it's your money, stop asking others for advice, look up the company and decide whether you want to stay invested. Spoonfeeding is hurting you in the long run
Jack Barnes
pretty much. don't worry user. the higher you move up the more likely you are to get axed. They can't get rid of the actual cunts doing the work or they'd have no company left. Just feel the flow brother, ride the bull dance . . workin it . . workin it
>Based on public filings, Powell's net worth is estimated to be as little as $19.7 million and as much as $55 million. He is the wealthiest member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. I doubt he gives too much of a fuck lol
Josiah Reyes
Happy Good Friday anons! I hope you're being a good Christian and making sure you eat fish instead of meat today!
1.2018, not 2008. There's no reason to think 2008 should've been a V. October 2018 was a crash? I remember it being a down market, but not CRASH bad.
2.Thing is, everyone realized it's not as bad as Ackman made it sound, and we haven't had the dissolution of law and order anywhere. The rich are coming home from their Pandemic Islands now that they see the worst was averted.
Unfortunately you and I and every other retail trader have large cash or short positions because we're hoping to revisit the lows. That often means it's even less likely to happen.
3. I don't see it as a purely fundamentals based crash, and the ferocity of the crash seems like it was largely do to some heavily leveraged traders who were forced to sell everything as margin calls came in, option calls were executed, etc.
Jacob Morris
underrated
>maybe, but there's no percveived bad actors this time around, just a black swan and a government mandated shutdown, so there's wide support for keeping everything going, and providing loans that could become more like grants.
perfectly sums up my logic behind longing AAL this week. Forget about the buybacks! The US is now in the business of keeping everything afloat as it was before the virus. They let bear stearnes fail because there was some admission of wrong doing.
I made about four hundred bucks then lost 600, I think im up in crypto though
Blake Murphy
I work in an industry where I make virtually no money, but it also recession proof. But then my friends who are laid off can in theory make more money than I make off of UI plus $600 per week, to essentially NEET. Never more have I felt like a wagie in a cagie, and there doesn't seem to be a lot I can do about it.
My best hope is that the bears win and deflationary spiral destroys the economy, but that my position survives. If it does, I could finally afford to buy cheap stock and more importantly property. This country is so fucked, I don't think we're going to recover from this frankly.
Anways, think I should long SND? Their cutting edge sand technology makes me think that they're prospects look mighty bullish
Anyone who believes a recovery is possible is delusional. Sure, the Fed can print infinite money, but that doesn't fix productivity. >30% unemployment >skipped credit card payments >mortgage crisis 2.0 >small businesses going under >businesses finding out you can't actually get those corona loans >people can't afford rent >there will be massive evictions in June >even if lock down is lifted there are no jobs >hiring people can take weeks or months >many jobs are gone for good, which is why they were fired >manufacturing is completely shut down, expensive to restart >supply chains are still in samples >airlines only flying essential routes, often empty, definitely not buying new planes >restaurants are all dead >casinos and hotels are all dead >REITs getting margin called, no way to stop it >all major construction projects halted indefinitely >dividends slashed across the board >oil is going to continue to nose dive in a death spiral >US energy companies going bankrupt very soon >China is still locked down and minimum manufacturing >Second wave of corona guaranteed >people running out of money and no job will cause desperation >inflation only making things worse
I said I bought SPY at 250 weeks ago and its 280 now
Elijah Rivera
All of that is priced in. Cope harder bitchhhhhh
Liam Diaz
The equity value of my portfolio is almost back to where it was in January but I have the same amount of shares with more liquid cash. I’d say I’m doing good so far.
Jackson Mitchell
trade-off of living in a first world county mang. Could be you out of work on the gibs. I'd rather be working myself. the gibs aint living.
Sebastian Green
5.2% drop coming Monday.
Jaxon Brown
Ironic or not, this is exactly the sentiment people should be concerned over.
Earnings reports for some big players are coming out over the next two weeks and I'm expecting the market to do a major correction. Maybe as early as mid-late next week.
Jaxon King
Good job. Now do something else cool.
Oliver Campbell
even if Mr Bobo is losing money I'd still say he's smarter than you eternal bulltards. Learn when to change positions, stop acting like a nigger. You dipshits said a crash couldn't happen in February.
Aaron Scott
unironically priced in. markets looking at q3
Julian Moore
I'm a finance major and only have 6 months left till I graduate and still don't know what alpha or beta mean
Daniel Nguyen
I wish.
Isaac Price
youre a beta and im an alpha. make sense now?>t-this time for sure!! no
Isaiah Nelson
You retards. Wait for the euphoria to fade and resistance to start, and be careful of overnight pumps. We're probably a few days off of a turning point. Don't get fucked by option decay and high fees by guessing and taking them out months away.
Thomas Phillips
Housing is in the shitter and has no sign of recovery. Same retards will be confused when the debt bubble pops.
Henry Campbell
surely it is to be expected though? I mean why wait until the actual earnings confirm what you already know? certain industries have already been battered based on their future prospects being shit. why would they get battered again?
Brody Morales
>I'm a finance major and Why would you? Finance has nothing to do with valuations and stocks. Its with counting up beans.
Josiah Baker
Actually, this next week is bank week reports. I suspect they will have better than expected results. Banks are greedy as fuck, they control the loans and are calling in margins specifically for this. Don't bet against banks. We might even see $300 end of next week. Imagine recovering 80% after a drop of 40% and believing its REAL. Its disgusting. I plan on buying my puts then.
what do you mean "this time"? We had entire weeks of red in March. Where were you? Oh. Shitting yourself. While the "schizos" made bank.
Nolan Phillips
Yeah
Camden Wilson
Earnings put the qualitative speculation into a quantitative context. It’s important.
Andrew Ramirez
i'm planning to liquidate my portfolio and buy puts next week, if we hit 300 i'll shit a brick. Beyond the "priced-in" meme there is no fucking reason why a free-fall back to 220 isn't possible. It's fucking scary anons
Grayson Thompson
This is what scares me. I don't think things will be back to normal by Q3. I think we will be in a major global recession by then. However my puts expire well before that.
Even if the virus went away tomorrow we are still in for a global recession due to both demand and supply shocks as well as too much debt.
I couldn't believe it when the markets didn't react to a 10% unemployment in 3 weeks. Still shocked.
Not really a crash, just couldn't think of another word, correction I guess.
Ackman was dramatic, but bullish sentiment is getting decently high, maybe more of a squeeze gets us to touch the 290s, but an 18% haircut after an 11 year 471% bull run? With a global economic shutdown and a still ongoing collapsed oil market? The risk to reward just isn't there. Perfectly reasonable to assume a second wave, that would fuck us over.
Owen Edwards
yeh, second wave in the southern hemisphere when winter hits mixed with the chaos of standard colds and flu making every cunt thing they got the rona. hmmm, you make some interesting points user.
There was little reason we were at SPY 330 before the crash. We were only there because the future looked like smooth sailing, not a single bad thing in the world. Then somehow, the world was turned upside down in a week. We lost 30%. Yet, somehow we've recovered over 50% of that in the past few weeks despite the fact everything is getting worse. If we couldn't justify 330 a month ago, how could we possibly justify 280-300 now?
