You of you fags are underestimating the impact of COVID-19.The biggest fallacy you fall into is not understanding the time latencies involved.
1. Exceptionally long incubation period 2-14 days, median ~4-7 days. 2. Many "asymptomatic" will eventually develop symptoms and part of the currently "mild cases" will develop into severe cases with a latency of one week on average. 4. The disease can progress without "apparent" symptoms such as cough. Seemingly healthy "asymptomatic" people have been shown to have lung damage because of COVID is new to the immune system and the response is slow. Damage can occur before symptoms kick in. 5. After detection, healing time 2 weeks in mild cases, severe/critical cases take 3 - 6 weeks. Time from first symptoms to death ranges from 2 to 8 weeks
Optimistic assumption: >USA has been most of the severe cases during the past weeks and the number of cases back then represents the number of meaningful (severe) infections accurately and this pool represents the cases that eventually lead to death. The undetected cases that were mild or asymptomatic before were eventually detected if they developed severe symptoms. Aka currently there are no bunch of undetected corona deaths. And the number of deaths at time t is proportional to the cases in the history with a latency of x: Deaths(t) ~ cases(t-x). The proportion of asymptomatic or mild cases is irrelevant.
SUPER optimistic scenario: >Avg time from symptoms to death 2 weeks. Confirmed cases in the US 2 weeks ago: 3k rounded up. This means: current USA ~500 daily deaths are a representation of the infections from ~2 weeks ago. With same proportions, currently detected 120k infections will progress into 20k deaths in two weeks. Even if full lockdown is implemented tomorrow because this model is independent of the future case progression.
So, with all the optimistic assumptions, how does this simple model reflect to reality? See the image with Linear log-scale fit.
Medium optimistic scenario: >Avg time from symptoms to death 3 weeks. The US cases 3 weeks ago: 400. With the same logic, current 120k infections will progress into 150k deaths in 3 weeks.
See the image again. We can clearly see that such progression would actually imply that very strict restriction measures come into effect within the next days. This means numbers will probably be worse since the US has so far failed to have a meaningful impact on the spread of the virus.
Reminder: These scenarios do not even consider the unavoidable spread of the disease in the coming weeks. If the cases are expected to grow in the future, you can add a zero or two in a month.
Jason Miller
t. Brainlet that fell for the media hoax virus
Luke Myers
tldr: Optimistic situation, the USA is fucked
Medium optimistic, still assuming improvement, USA is even more fucked
SUUUUUHUUUUHUUUUPER pessimistic scenario >a single digit million number of people dies in the USA Boohooo go back to work wagie
Joshua Carter
If I die I die.
Luke Allen
Honestly, I have no clue what political implications are but USA society and politics will be disrupted in a way that will fuck up the country totally in the long term.
No strict measures and no guaranteed free health care for victims: >Hundreds of thousands dead >Trust in government & authority set to free fall >Economy eaten to death >Possible civil war scenarios or states suing the federation in masses not excluded
Strict measures including movement restrictions between the states, guaranteed free/affordable health care for covid victims, >Drastic economic effect in short term, major defaults unavoidable, but that's how capitalism works. They will be replaced. Major political clash will ensue but economic recovery will be quick in 2021-2023.
The quicker the strict restrictions are put into place, the smaller the disruption will be. The momentary economic shock will be large, but if the US does not act now on the national level, the economy and society will be in a state of terminal cancer. However, I don't see US doing anything above any time soon.
On the bright side, this is the worlds greatest short opportunity.
Justin Moore
500 MILLION DEAD SOON
Lincoln Hall
this, but unironically. thing is, we don't know enough about the virus yet. if it makes men infertile, it's better to shut the economy down for good.
Adrian Wilson
Congratz retard, you failed even comprehending the simplest fucking possible model. The model is independent of future development and it requires no case growth statistic extrapolation over today. In simple terms, the only assumption static proportionality of death-case relation with time delay.
Jack Nguyen
Actually even the very optimistic scenario can lead to million deaths, it just takes a month longer.
However, going past the time delay requires extrapolation of the case statistics to the future.
The overflow of hospital capacity and restriction measures are too big variables so I will only make projections to the near future that is within the range of selected time delay.
Carter Gray
I've ten folded my assets since January 15th by listening to mathematics over retards like you.
Mason Jackson
Also, local herd immunity will become statistically significant after a few weeks so case extrapolation will fail at some point. But again, the positive side of the model presented is that it gives zero fuck about herd immunity or future cases as long as you don't go over the time it takes on avg from detection to death.
Kevin Jackson
Nice Larp
Ethan Jackson
Most if not all deaths have been to people who are unhealthy, old, or people with shitty immune systems. It's laughable how many people either overreact or just don't give a shit. Is their no median for you retards?
Easton Gray
it's already been modelled out using real data. 80k dead, give or take. it's bad flu that spreads quick, we get it.
Once a few people everyone knows get it (Assuming those people aren't in a fucking nursing home) and they're like, "Yeah, I had a common cold." Everyone is going to feel retarded, and op will have to find a new concern troll tactic to amti-drumph with.
Yeah but you have to consider those other numbers are currently rising as well. Also consider that flu season is just about over so, at least in the northern hemisphere, this should slow the rate of infection. Meanwhile, most of those numbers should continue at the same rate.
Of course it's been modeled. Model I used also uses real data and real numbers. If you want to do comparison, dont give me a model, give me the assumptions.
But you don't need to do that. Your non peer reviewed model has already failed. It uses way too early data from the time US had only n = 46 deaths. It predicts NYS peak hospitalization in one week, but even NYS governor is expecting the earliest peak in a few weeks.
The paper also assumes that distancing policies are vigorously implemented and enforced across all states like they are enforced in data source countries China, France, Iran, Italy, and Spain. This is far from reality.
Thomas Morris
Depending on reinfections and capacity we could be fucked for a good good while.
It's pointless to compare us to previous outbreaks as we will, de facto, have the worst response. America has no idea how to healthcare in the best of times, it is now the worst of times to need healthcare.
Lol dude... If you only knew how bad it really is... In my canadian province with really good testing rate and super strict measures enforced 1+ week before the USA did anything, we are detecting a faster grow in tested cases than USA just imagine how unaccurate are the US numbers right now why ? testing material shortage they are not testing anymore prove me wrong you can't
Aiden Stewart
Corvids aside what this means is that the Australian dollar is less valuable than rust.
Ryder Cruz
It's not exactly doubling every day. With 20% daily increase it will take 107 days
Adam Brooks
When it comes to death estimate, 4 Days into the 80k model we have already surpassed the 95% confidence interval top estimate. This error will compound daily.
Justin Ramirez
statistics make for great lies you do know the proportions of the infected and the deaths depends on how they are measured? or if they are even measured at all?
brainlets like you i can never understand, such blind trust in very uncertain things, just cause some authority said it
let me put it straight once and for all: very few are tested for the virus those that die are in the same group that would have died from the flu anyway
80k die every year in the US from the flu, but no headlines from that corona kills a couple thousand and OMG ITS HAPPENING
Grayson Phillips
people die of the flu, etc. etc.
Asher Howard
No, they’d resort to giving everyone free money long before that
Zachary Hernandez
>another data modeler who refuses to show "total number of test given"
Juan Thompson
Yeah man! Woooo! The Partoomer. I’m gunna Partooooooom!
>Seemingly healthy "asymptomatic" people have been shown to have lung damage Source on this? I'm pretty sure I got covid with minimal symptoms (slight intermittent fever and sore throat on and off for two weeks), never had a single cough or chest tightness or shortness of breath. I have a hard time believing it could have permanently ravaged my lungs without evoking any respiratory symptoms.
Grayson Ward
You realize things like allergies and the cold exist even with covid being around right?
>im pretty sure i had it >mild symptoms that could be anything Fucking idiot
Carter Bennett
just exercise & see probably nothing desu...
Anthony Wilson
I literally almost never get sick, I get a cold once every other year and the last time I had flu I was 10 years old.
This was different from anything I'd had before, the symptoms were very minimal (just small fever, sore throat, brainscuzz) but they would persist for 24-48 hours then totally go away. 3-4 days later they'd pop up again, same duration. This cycle reoccurred like 5 times over the course of 2.5 weeks, and then I finally got the hot nasal passages that tell me my body is expelling the sickness and I haven't had it recur since.
If it wasn't corona, then it was some other bizarre illness that I've never encountered before. My colds are usually 24 hour affairs with lots of mucus, wet coughing, sneezing, sniffles, etc, and they burn out fast and don't recur. This one was totally dry and hung around for almost 3 weeks. I get hayfever and it's nothing like this either. That's more wet spluttery sneezing and itchy eyes. I had neither with this illness.
Also if it's relevant I live in King County and I did a huge Costco/Winco/Fred Meyer grocery run the day before symptoms first emerged. This was early march.
Nolan Murphy
Fake and gay. Why do you shariablue trannies never get tired of being wrong and the God Emperor always being right?
Hmmmmmm. It will never be her turn bucko, accept it.
Michael Cooper
i had the same symptoms sore throat, some cough coming and going too (unusual as fuck) high body temp but just or ON the fever treshold some fever-ish dreams
you'll find out by exercising i'm going to the gym tomorrow to find out i'm pretty familiar with how my body performs on a bike for instance
Jaxon Robinson
pls explain?
Ian Clark
If you're not opening short positions on construction and engineering firms it's already over. They're next.
Andrew Hughes
Pol continues to prove it’s THE dumbest board
William Foster
yeah same. You're not the only one eitehr there was a thread on Yas Forums where people were saying the same thing
Jeremiah Wood
I recently had a series of phlebotomies to reduce my blood ferritin from 450 to 50 (have hemochromatosis). My RBC count didn't drop at all but I've still found my endurance with exercise is complete trash now. This all happened last fall so not corona-related.
That being said, I don't feel like it's any more trash now after being sick than it was before. Anyways,
irrespective whether I got asymptomatic corona or not, I still want a link to the study showing lung damage in asymptomatic patients. Have a hard time believing it can deal that much damage without producing any respiratory symptoms.
Tyler Davis
Where are the pessimistic scenarios?
Julian Gutierrez
ive always fucked with crypto thinking of making the switch to stocks but am put off by the trading fees. Am i fucking stupid?
Jayden Garcia
being educated doesn't mean you're smart
Justin Morales
Another retarded response. I’m not talking about formal education I’m talking about your retarded “logic”
Aaron Williams
im having the same shit right now sore throat, some cough coming and going no fever but extremely laziness and some pain back in my eyes it's been 2-3 weeks like that
Logan Campbell
your model is up there with btc stock to flow charts it's all based on assumptions and it's not gonna work out
