so serious talk, is this just a dead cat bounce or is it still going to bottom?
the argument for bear market is:
it doesn't seem like a vaccine is going to be found anytime soon (june at the earliest.)
Quantitative easing through paying money out to americans is being blocked by democrats.
Italy has experienced a pandemic despite a universal healthcare system, whilst the united states system is not prepared to deal with this pandemic.
quantitative easing can only be done so much before it over-inflates USD.
government measures like quantitative easing can do so much as a bandaid for the economy when actual entire industries are shutting down and grinding to a halt.
However:
Qe will increase the value of the economy.
Many major investors (like Warran Buffet) are sending signals to start buying in now, many people tend to follow what these big movers are doing and it affects the behaviour of the market.
So where are you putting your money, Bear or Bull? I this just a short term rise before the fall or ares the government actions taken going to plaster over the economy until this pandemic subsides and the market starts making a recovery?
Its' going to crash again when next week when they announce 2 million+ unemployed. No, it's not "priced in".
Jack Hernandez
I sure ain't shorting, that's way too risky as I doubt I can call the bottom.
But, I bought a fat lot when ETH dumped to around $100 and I am having money ready to buy more as I believe we'll be dumping more
Nicholas Turner
there's a repo crisis that started last year, pension funds are insolvent, the government is bailing out every industry, dozens of CEOs quit their jobs in anticipation, senators sold millions in February, the unemployment websites are crashing do to load, mass layoffs haven't started, supply chain hit hasn't fully manifested yet (companies will run out of reserve stock soon), quarterly earnings are next month, hmm what else? yes there is a global pandemic. Oh right, there's a housing bubble, student loan bubble, sub-prime auto loans. What else? OH YEAH. All growth in the market since 2009 has been fucking stock buybacks! OH RIGHT any the fucking pandemic hasn't even slammed the hospitals yet. Do you realize by this time next month the average hospital will be swamped with elderly people who are literally suffocating to death? Picture it, and the media coverage. We haven't even priced-in all the people who will be drawing out their 401ks to pay for mortgages, rent, and food. OH yeah, and the food shortages. OH YEAH and the national GUARD is being DEPLOYED because of the very real possibility of riots in the major cities. OH YEAH and there's going to be an Occupy Wall Street 2.0 coming that will be militantly violent with a fully built-up army of anti-Drumpf cattle manipulated by strongest anarcho-communist blac block America has even seen (as a reaction to the Alt Right). Yeah mate this is the bottom for sure... for sure... for sure.
Ayden Bennett
This is so tiresome, a fucking global pandemic has shut down and put in lockdown whole countries but this stupid market is still pumping. Everybody predicted this shit was gonna dump so hard, everybody said "this is just the beginning". They can't be wrong, people are still dying like flies, and infection rate goes up. How can this shit start recovering NOW?!
Jacob Phillips
fomo is hurting my hands, but I wont buy in. Pandemic effects will hit in a few weeks. Then the real FEAR begins
Hudson Jenkins
You think as soon as they find a cure everything will be back to normal? god no, people have already lost jobs, less income to spend on literally everything, still gonna feel the affects many months after this shit has ended
Blake Powell
Buffet doesn't time the bottom. It's ~~~ for him.
Joseph Moore
puts on almost everthing in the near term and call options on Kirkland Lake Gold. Tons of value in equities but until this settles down they are only going to get cheaper so just wait to go long.
it's not that risky when it's virtually certain that equities will continue to lose value. Especially when central bank actions have had almost no impact on the crash. nothing short of a cure or vaccine will rapidly turn this around in the short term. There is plenty more bad news to come which will drive prices further down.
Luke Lopez
Imagine how many americucks are going to liquidate stock and crypto in the next few weeks because they've lost their income.
William Allen
Just a deadcat bounce, there are no fresh money getting into the markets. Whales playing, I really hope it goes down further. Not because FOMO, but because this shit isn't sustainable.
Parker Price
very few mutts are retail investors beyond maybe a bit of dabbling. everyone's shit is held in 401k funds, which most people don't even touch or think about. the main problem is that the economy needs individuals to consoom, which they can't do as more states enter lockdowns and jobs are lost. that's what's going to make everything completely tank. Q2 is gonna be ugly.
Gavin Turner
Doomers are S E E T H I N G lol
Nathaniel Mitchell
Imagine being a eurocuck and knowing this added at least another 20 years of stagnation before you ever see growth in your economy again. They still haven't recovered from 2008
Jaxon Jenkins
You guys are overthinking this. I was a contributor to the current run we're on. I bought in for one simple reason: Trump is about to send out TrumpBux to nearly every household in the country. Unlike some shit like a bank bailout or whatever, it's not Wall Street getting the cash, it's the common man. So a big chunk of that money is going to flow directly into Bitcoin. Why will people buy bitcoin? They want to hedge their bets. All this turmoil is making regular folks realize that the system is fragile, and we could end up like those dusty fucks from the history books who are burning stacks of worthless cash in their stoves to cook with. So why not invest a little in the self-proclaimed "money of the future?" Might just save your ass in the looming apocalypse scenario, or at the very least turn you a little bit of profit.
Gabriel Jenkins
I bough BTC on 13th Mar.
It's too late to buy. Another dump is coming.
Jack Scott
nothing is recovering man, the fed is the only one fighting the crash no one is buying or selling anything
Julian Martin
You are dumb to think people will spend these money on anything else other than groceries.
Liam Lopez
it's a dead cat bounce
Lincoln Reyes
do you think an individual who's spending behavior would be impacted by 1k is going to take that money and invest in bitcoin? are you fucking retarded? They're going to spend it on twinkies and cigarettes
Ryder Stewart
the trump bux are just a loan on tax returns you will be paying back
I am long BTC but it is obvious that 1k to the average american will have virtually no impact
Caleb Jones
holy shit Yas Forumslets here are is so bearish, we gonna pump like never before. btw, china is rebooting its economy as we speak, you all missed the chance of your lifetime.
Jayden Martin
the bearish sentiment is the only reason I'm buying right now
Levi Sullivan
You're all viewing this from very American point of view. You're down like 20% or what? Look at European stocks. Europe is already in lockdown. Stocks are down 30-60%. American companies were overvalued compared to European ones in the beginning too.
Nathaniel Williams
china rebooting doesn't matter when there is no demand. certainly the time to buy undervalued equities is coming soon but that time isn't now. Q1 results aren't out yet and Q2 is going to be far worse.
Ryan Butler
Yep.
Liam Smith
didn't china freeze their economy to avoid the drop?
Lincoln Rodriguez
>bearish This is srly your first rodeo right?
Hunter Williams
if we close above 6.9k-7k on 12hour/ daily basis this would not be a deadcat bounce and we would have a high chance of reversing
Gabriel Morgan
I think that article supports my argument. Americans are more uncertain about the US Dollar, and the economy in general, than ever before in our lifetimes. The main reason people don't buy bitcoin, according to that article, is that it seems risky. Well guess what, trusting entirely in our current economy is starting to feel a little risky too. Jumping out of a 3rd floor window seems pretty damn risky, until the room is filled with smoke. I'm not saying that EVERYONE is going to dump all their supplemental money into crypto. But people who are already in the crypto space might be buying some if the prices are low, and people who have flirted with the idea of buying bitcoin may see this as a last-shot opportunity.
Luke Collins
This. Q2 earnings are going to start rolling in and it’s going to be a bloodbath. I don’t understand how most people think this is just another even which will blow over in a week. People have been spoiled by the bull market. The biggest dead cat bounce signal is that there are so many fomo posts on /biz and Reddit.
Camden Lee
Euro here. I remember this calm before the storm a month ago, everybody carrying on like nothing is wrong. You guys have no idea what's coming. If you don't have hard cash right and food stores you don't have anything
William Bennett
next wednesday, unemployment numbers from the USA will get released
red day is all i will say
Elijah Perry
The article demonstrates that people buy bitcoin in hopes of future returns and increased value, not as a currency replacement. If anything increases the value of bitcoin from this it'll be central bank activity, not lower class adoption.
Jaxson Johnson
There are more 1st world country lockdowns coming.
We are nowhere near the bottom. Prepare for the worst.
Isaac Perry
You're far more fucked in Europe than we are in the states. I would hold dollars rather than euros and certainly not european equities.. If we see a recession here, you will likely experience a depression.
James Gutierrez
I'm shorting.
This virus doubles every 4 days. It's yet to shut down airports, and many Americans haven't been impacted by it yet.
Nasdaq was at $178 multiple times last summer. Do you really think we've hit bottom?
Disney's P/E is 16 when they're shutting down parks for months.
It's not in free fall because of circuit breakers and FOMO so boomers are buying the dip. When the market has never gone down in a decade the dumb money buys any dip in prices.
In a bull market you'll never want to sell (FOMO of gains). In a bear market you'll always want to buy. The hardest thing to do is wait.
Benjamin Phillips
Pattern has been >Virus grows exponentially >market hits new low >Boomers announce marginal improvement (interest rates, UBI, ect) >after 2-3 days of slight bull rallies virus doubles again >market hits new low
Sebastian Perez
Exactly. Unless this we've seen the worst of the virus and that all the impacts are realized, the market will continue to decline.
Luke Cruz
Definitely, People are working from home, and some jobs have to work in the field. But this is probably gonna go on for months. I really don't know how people think the economy and market are recovering. Tourism is practically dead. All these people need to get paid by their employers who in turn get help financially by the government but the government isn't able to keep on doing this for months. The Dutch government is paying for 90% of the wages of employees. Shit is gonna go down so hard next month(s). The reason there is a big pump happening right now is FOMO. No way this isn't gonna go down to 2k and lower in a month.
Juan Baker
lmao you'll be much harder hit americant, people were out on the streets (st patricks) just three days ago
plus your healthcare system.....
Easton Cox
you say that but america started acting to late, test kits that didn't and doing starting travel bans and lock downs after the virus has gotten a foot hold.
Isolation, lockdowns, quarantining and testing is what will smooth the curve, personally I don't think America's medical institutions and average americans financially are equipped to do that
There is a theoretical limit on the impact of the virus(i.e. deaths). Economies in Europe for the most part never recovered from 2008. The US may not have better medical outcomes but that is almost irrelevant. European economies and ECB was not nearly healthy enough or prepared for such an event. The US economy can handle the downturn and recover much more quickly. Europe was barely experiencing any economic growth over the past 10 years while the US had an incredible bull market and relatively massive economic growth. Europe is so fucked and I feel bad for them.
Joshua Anderson
Financially equipped for what? America has experienced 10 years of economic growth and a healthy economy. Europe has been stagnant and never recovered from 2008. Everyone is going to suffer but economically the US is far better positioned to take this hit than Europe is.
Hunter Richardson
when do i get my trumpbux
Brandon Bailey
>incredible bull market and economic growth. Majority of that were companies buying shares instead of actually spending on growth
Luke Kelly
Stock buy backs are a form of dividend. They don't create some sort of artificial growth. It's a method of allocating or spending profit. Profit and wealth creation grows the economy. European companies haven't been growing. It's a fundamental difference. They don't have profit to spend.
Levi Gray
america as a country yes, but your average american isn't financially secure enough to weather this out for two months without working. Or the medical bills if they contract the virus. Let alone going out and spending/stimulating the economy.
Isaiah Diaz
your growth was fake
Colton Lewis
You have no idea. People have no jobs right now. Nothing is getting done. Your dollar means nothing.
Nicholas Davis
>without working People aren't losing their jobs en masse. >medical bills We have insurance.
Nicholas Murphy
Average americans will suffer, yes. I'm not disputing that. Average europeans will suffer more. Especially in the long term. Unemployment was already far worse in europe. How are you going to fund all the european government bux programs when mass amounts of your citizens don't pay taxes. Look at what happened in Greece.
Alexander Price
Coupled with the obesity rate in the USA and third world healthcare provisions you guys really have your heads burried in the sand.
Isaac Phillips
Implying stock buybacks off of cheap borrowed money is growth. Bury your head deeper in the sand maybe that will make things better.
Landon Hernandez
>Average European Southern Europeans
Parker Jones
Why was it fake? And if it was then why didn't Europe fake it too? There is nothing at all suggesting it was fake. Just because you say it's fake doesn't mean it's true
Connor Peterson
Yas Forums shouldn't be panicking. This is the best time to buy.
Chase Foster
>this desperate europoor cope You're all obese too and we have literally the best healthcare providers in the world. You're gonna get rekt and not even see it coming.
Jackson Gutierrez
Depends. France did a lock-down early and the numbers are rising much more slowly now.
Germany just announced a safety net for companies, free-lancers, and banks of up to 500bn EUR. 180bn are direct transfers and they said this could go up to 700bn transfers.
Germany has low public debt, so that is very much sustainable (jump from ~50% debt/GNI to 80%).
Adam Sanchez
This
..it's perfect, I always forget at least one or two of these points when I'm shit posting but you hit all of them I think...
OH YEAH... And Deutsche Bank is going to declare bankruptcy any day now
Jayden Carter
You've had lower interest rates in europe and cheaper capital so why haven't you been able to grow enough or afford stock buy backs?
Joseph James
Lol, have you ever been to Europe no one here is obese. Some people overweight but not obese. You have great healthcare providers but it's waaaay to expensive. Only rich people will profit from this. We can pay for our healthcare americans not. Americans are gonna get rekt and not even see it coming.
William Carter
t. zoomer who hasn't experienced deductibles on hospital visits yet.
David Perry
If you don't see how Europe is the first to fail then you're not paying attention... $700B easing, what exactly does that do to hedge against the $200 trillion derivatives bomb held by EU banks?
Ryan Thompson
do poor americans have insurance that would cover covid-19? what percentages of americans have medical insurance and would go to the hospital or self isolate rather than continue going to work to pay rent? (Honestly asking as i'm not an American.)
Personally I don't think medical insurance is a substitute for universal healthcare.
Not arguing about how hard europe is going to be hit, you might have the wrong post.